IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2609.37051.html

Beyond the Coast: an Empirical Assessment of the Kaldor-Verdoorn Law in Chinese Provinces

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Cristina Barbieri G'oes
  • Saverio Barabuffi

Abstract

This paper investigates spatial productivity convergence across Chinese provinces during structural transformation, examining how a shift in auonomous demand composition reshaped regional productivity dynamics. Using Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive modelling and province level data from 2001 to 2021, we analyse eastern, central, ad western regions across two sub-periods through the augmented Kaldor-Verdoorn law. A post-2011 spatial reversal emerges: inland regions exhibit stronger Verdoorn coefficients, while fiscal multipliers converge across coastal and inland areas, validating China's redistributive fiscal policies in narrowing regional productivity gaps. The Kaldor-Verdoorn coefficient remains robust throughout, while export effects on productivity collapse and government expenditure effects strenghten.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Cristina Barbieri G'oes & Saverio Barabuffi, 2026. "Beyond the Coast: an Empirical Assessment of the Kaldor-Verdoorn Law in Chinese Provinces," Papers 2609.37051, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2609.37051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.37051
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lemoine, Françoise & Poncet, Sandra & Ünal, Deniz, 2015. "Spatial rebalancing and industrial convergence in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 39-63.
    2. Fabio Freitas & Franklin Serrano, 2015. "Growth Rate and Level Effects, the Stability of the Adjustment of Capacity to Demand and the Sraffian Supermultiplier," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 258-281, July.
    3. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Government Spending Shocks in Quarterly and Annual Time Series," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 507-517, March.
    4. Huang, Junbing & Cai, Xiaochen & Huang, Shuo & Tian, Sen & Lei, Hongyan, 2019. "Technological factors and total factor productivity in China: Evidence based on a panel threshold model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 271-285.
    5. Loren Brandt & Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Luhang Wang & Yifan Zhang, 2019. "WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms: Corrigendum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1616-1621, April.
    6. Weili Zhang & Wei Xu & Xiaoye Wang, 2019. "Regional convergence clubs in China: identification and conditioning factors," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(2), pages 327-350, April.
    7. Los, Bart & Timmer, Marcel P. & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2015. "How important are exports for job growth in China? A demand side analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 19-32.
    8. Wu, Alfred M. & Wang, Wen, 2013. "Determinants of Expenditure Decentralization: Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 176-184.
    9. Xiaodan Yu & Giovanni Dosi & Jiasu Lei & Alessandro Nuvolari, 2015. "Editor's Choice Institutional change and productivity growth in China’s manufacturing: the microeconomics of knowledge accumulation and "creative restructuring"," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 24(3), pages 565-602.
    10. John Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2025. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 71(1), February.
    11. Yuwan Duan & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Ruochen Dai, 2023. "Regional inequality in China during its rise as a giant exporter: A value chain analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 148-172, January.
    12. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    13. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    14. Hiau Looi Kee & Heiwai Tang, 2016. "Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1402-1436, June.
    15. Steven M Fazzari & Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2020. "Demand-led growth and accommodating supply," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 583-605.
    16. Pei-Chien Lin & Chun-Hung Lin & I-Ling Ho, 2013. "Regional convergence or divergence in China? Evidence from unit root tests with breaks," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 50(1), pages 223-243, February.
    17. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Edgerton, David L. & Opper, Sonja, 2013. "A Matter of Time: Revisiting Growth Convergence in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 239-251.
    18. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina & Deleidi, Matteo, 2022. "Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: An empirical investigation for the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    19. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, June.
    20. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2013. "A Generalized Spatial Panel Data Model with Random Effects," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5-6), pages 650-685, August.
    21. Thomas R. Michl, 1985. "International Comparisons of Productivity Growth: Verdoorn’s Law Revisited," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 474-492, July.
    22. Serrano, Franklin, 1995. "Long Period Effective Demand and the Sraffian Supermultiplier," Contributions to Political Economy, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(0), pages 67-90.
    23. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Klaassen, Franc, 2009. "Temporal aggregation and SVAR identification, with an application to fiscal policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 253-255, December.
    24. Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 339-351.
    25. Bénétrix, Agustín S. & Lane, Philip R., 2013. "Fiscal cyclicality and EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 164-176.
    26. Fazzari, Steven M. & González, Alejandro, 2025. "How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    27. Kobi Abayomi & Andrew Gelman & Marc Levy, 2008. "Diagnostics for multivariate imputations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(3), pages 273-291, June.
    28. Guanchun Liu & Jianbo Song & Chengsi Zhang, 2022. "Fiscal transfers and economic convergence: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2924-2949, September.
    29. Matteo Deleidi & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Luigi Salvati & Francesca Tosi, 2021. "Output, investment and productivity: the Italian North–South regional divide from a Kaldor–Verdoorn approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(8), pages 1376-1387, August.
    30. He, Ying & Yu, Changhua, 2025. "Fiscal multipliers, sectoral heterogeneity and reallocation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    31. Jordi Pons-Novell & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 1999. "Kaldor's Laws and Spatial Dependence: Evidence for the European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 443-451.
    32. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Corrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 320-322, August.
    33. Trevor Tombe & Xiaodong Zhu, 2019. "Trade, Migration, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis of China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1843-1872, May.
    34. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    35. Bilge Erten & Jessica Leight, 2021. "Exporting Out of Agriculture: The Impact of WTO Accession on Structural Transformation in China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 364-380, May.
    36. Wilson, Ross, 2016. "Does Governance Cause Growth? Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 138-151.
    37. Scherngell, Thomas & Borowiecki, Martin & Hu, Yuanjia, 2014. "Effects of knowledge capital on total factor productivity in China: A spatial econometric perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 82-94.
    38. Matteo Deleidi & Claudia Fontanari & Santiago José Gahn, 2023. "Autonomous demand and technical change: exploring the Kaldor–Verdoorn law on a global level," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 57-80, April.
    39. Li, Yingbo & Wang, Zihan & Lin, Ziqiu & Gao, Yuning, 2025. "Revisiting regional governance and regional development: Measurements, linkages and coupling effect," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    40. Ping Feng & Mahmut Yasar & Roderick M. Rejesus, 2024. "Innovation and regional economic convergence: evidence from China," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(2), pages 535-559, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Deleidi & Claudia Fontanari & Santiago José Gahn, 2023. "Autonomous demand and technical change: exploring the Kaldor–Verdoorn law on a global level," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 57-80, April.
    2. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2026. "Directed Innovation Policies and the Supermultiplier: New Evidence," FMM Working Paper 122-2026, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Deleidi, Matteo & Mazzucato, Mariana, 2021. "Directed innovation policies and the supermultiplier: An empirical assessment of mission-oriented policies in the US economy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(2).
    4. Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2019. "Mission-Oriented Innovation Policies: A Theoretical And Empirical Assessment For The Us Economy," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0248, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    5. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina & Deleidi, Matteo, 2022. "Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: An empirical investigation for the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2024. "Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(2), pages 363-382.
    7. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
    8. Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes & Giovanna Ciaffi & Santiago José Gahn, 2025. "Le grandi Opere Pubbliche: fiscal multipliers of public infrastructure in Italy (1870–1998)," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 42(1), pages 155-180, April.
    9. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th. & Partheniou, Andromachi, 2021. "The Effects of Government Spending Over the Business Cycle: A Disaggregated Analysis for OECD and Non-OECD Countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 809-822.
    10. Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou & Andromachi Partheniou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2025. "A Functional Classification Analysis of Government Spending Multipliers," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 1157-1192, September.
    11. Gabriel Temesgen Woldu & Izabella Szakálné Kanó, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers and structural economic characteristics: Evidence from countries in sub‐Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(8), pages 2335-2360, August.
    12. Carvelli, Gianni, 2024. "The dynamic effects of public investments on private capital formation: Modelling a heterogeneous asymmetric cointegration with unobserved global factors," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    13. Fernández Romero, Daniel, 2025. "The fiscal multiplier in presence of unconventional monetary policy: Evidence for 17 OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    14. Saccone, Donatella & Posta, Pompeo Della & Marelli, Enrico & Signorelli, Marcello, 2022. "Public investment multipliers by functions of government: An empirical analysis for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 531-545.
    15. Duan, Yuwan & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart & Yang, Cuihong, 2021. "How much did China's emergence as “the world's factory” contribute to its national income?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Matteo Deleidi & Davide Romaniello & Francesca Tosi, 2021. "Quantifying fiscal multipliers in Italy: A Panel SVAR analysis using regional data," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(5), pages 1158-1177, October.
    17. Liu, Chen & Ma, Xiao, 2018. "China's Export Surge and the New Margins of Trade," MPRA Paper 103970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2020.
    18. Latifi, Albina & Naboka-Krell, Viktoriia & Tillmann, Peter & Winker, Peter, 2024. "Fiscal policy in the Bundestag: Textual analysis and macroeconomic effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    19. José A. Pérez‐Montiel & Carles Manera, 2022. "Is autonomous demand really autonomous in the United States? An asymmetric frequency‐domain Granger causality approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 78-92, February.
    20. Baussola, Maurizio & Carvelli, Gianni, 2023. "Public and private investments: Long-run asymmetric effects in France and the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2609.37051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.