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Information and voting: Evidence from Peru's 2026 general elections

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  • Marcelo Gallardo
  • Nicolas Velarde
  • Cristina Gutarra

Abstract

Logistical failures during Peru's 2026 general elections postponed voting at thirteen locations in Lima Sur, so that roughly 55,000 registered electors cast ballots after election-night estimates and partial official returns had become public. We exploit this natural experiment to study whether public signals about candidate viability reshape choices on simultaneous presidential and legislative ballots. In our model of joint electoral choice, voters update beliefs about runoff qualification and legislative prospects and trade off candidate affinity, office-specific preferences, and the value of aligned representation. Upward revisions to perceived viability raise a candidate's presidential support and, through aligned representation, that of its legislative list, while office-specific preferences can generate divergent responses across ballots. Using cardinality matching, we compare delayed locations to election-day locations balanced on prior electoral preferences, demographics, and socioeconomic conditions. Estimates, as shares of the registered electorate, reveal substantial reallocation of presidential support: Nieto, L\'opez Aliaga, and S\'anchez gain 11.2, 3.9, and 1.2 percentage points; \'Alvarez, L\'opez Chau, and Belmont lose 4.4, 2.9, and 2.8; the remaining parties jointly lose 9.9; blank and invalid ballots fall by 2.9; and Fujimori's estimate is indistinguishable from zero. Legislative support moves in the same direction for every party, but by smaller magnitudes. The results are consistent with perceived viability shaping choice across offices, with distinct presidential and legislative responses, and underscore the stakes of rules governing the release of election-night estimates and partial results while some electors have yet to vote.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Gallardo & Nicolas Velarde & Cristina Gutarra, 2026. "Information and voting: Evidence from Peru's 2026 general elections," Papers 2606.01687, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2026.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.01687
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    1. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
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