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100-Day Analysis of USD/IDR Exchange Rate Dynamics Around the 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration

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  • Sandy H. S. Herho
  • Siti N. Kaban
  • Cahya Nugraha

Abstract

Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta $= -0.9224$, CI: $[-0.9727, -0.8571]$). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio $= 0.9061$, $p = 0.504$). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandy H. S. Herho & Siti N. Kaban & Cahya Nugraha, 2025. "100-Day Analysis of USD/IDR Exchange Rate Dynamics Around the 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration," Papers 2506.18738, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2506.18738
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