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The financial costs of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 US presidential elections

Author

Listed:
  • Refk Selmi

    (IRMAPE - Institut de Recherche en Management et Pays Emergents - ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School, CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Jamal Bouoiyour

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The victory of Mr. Donald Trump came as a surprise to a wide range of market participants. Some of the elements of his economic plan were envisaged to affect all US sectors. This paper assesses the reactions of disaggregated US stock market to the 2016 US presidential election results, and possible deregulation that is to follow after his inauguration. We find that the different US sectors were significantly and varyingly influenced by the election result, and were greatly reactive during the days after the inauguration. This underscores that uncertainty tends to persist and even rises since the President‐elect took office.

Suggested Citation

  • Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour, 2019. "The financial costs of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 US presidential elections," Post-Print hal-02408908, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02408908
    DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12231
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    Cited by:

    1. Jian, Jian-hui & Hu, Dan & Tian, Haiyan & Long, Chengfeng & Yang, Fan, 2023. "Political uncertainty, officials’ characteristics heterogeneity and firm cost stickiness," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 776-791.
    2. Delia DiaconaÅŸu & Seyed Mehdian & Ovidiu Stoica, 2023. "The Global Stock Market Reactions to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    3. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Wafa Ghardallou & Nasir Ahmad & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Does effect of risk and uncertainties on US sectoral returns differ across different investment horizons and market conditions," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-49, February.
    4. Hartwell, Christopher A. & Hubschmid-Vierheilig, Elena, 2024. "Do markets pay attention to political disinformation?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Worraphan Trakarnsirinont & Wisuttorn Jitaree & Wonlop Writthym Buachoom, 2023. "Political Uncertainty and Financial Firm Performance: Evidence from the Thai Economy as an Emerging Market in Asia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Chatjuthamard, Pattanaporn & Mook Lee, Sang & Kim, Young S. & Jiraporn, Pornsit & Potosky, Denise, 2024. "Climate change and shareholder value: Evidence from textual analysis and Trump’s unexpected victory," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Sandy H. S. Herho & Siti N. Kaban & Cahya Nugraha, 2025. "100-Day Analysis of USD/IDR Exchange Rate Dynamics Around the 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration," Papers 2506.18738, arXiv.org.
    8. Refk Selmi & Youssef Errami & Mark E Wohar, 2020. "Are U.S. industries resilient in dealing with trade uncertainty ? The case of U.S.-China trade war," Post-Print hal-02523186, HAL.
    9. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Youssef Errami & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "The energy transition, Trump energy agenda and COVID-19," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 140-153.

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