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Stochastic Modeling and Fair Valuation of Drawdown Insurance

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  • Hongzhong Zhang
  • Tim Leung
  • Olympia Hadjiliadis

Abstract

This paper studies the stochastic modeling of market drawdown events and the fair valuation of insurance contracts based on drawdowns. We model the asset drawdown process as the current relative distance from the historical maximum of the asset value. We first consider a vanilla insurance contract whereby the protection buyer pays a constant premium over time to insure against a drawdown of a pre-specified level. This leads to the analysis of the conditional Laplace transform of the drawdown time, which will serve as the building block for drawdown insurance with early cancellation or drawup contingency. For the cancellable drawdown insurance, we derive the investor's optimal cancellation timing in terms of a two-sided first passage time of the underlying drawdown process. Our model can also be applied to insure against a drawdown by a defaultable stock. We provide analytic formulas for the fair premium and illustrate the impact of default risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongzhong Zhang & Tim Leung & Olympia Hadjiliadis, 2013. "Stochastic Modeling and Fair Valuation of Drawdown Insurance," Papers 1310.3860, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1310.3860
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Palmowski, Zbigniew & Tumilewicz, Joanna, 2018. "Pricing insurance drawdown-type contracts with underlying Lévy assets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Li, Shu & Zhou, Xiaowen, 2022. "The Parisian and ultimate drawdowns of Lévy insurance models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 140-160.
    3. Zhang, Xiang & Li, Lingfei & Zhang, Gongqiu, 2021. "Pricing American drawdown options under Markov models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 1188-1205.
    4. Long Bai & Peng Liu, 2019. "Drawdown and Drawup for Fractional Brownian Motion with Trend," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 1581-1612, September.
    5. Zbigniew Palmowski & Joanna Tumilewicz, 2017. "Pricing insurance drawdown-type contracts with underlying L\'evy assets," Papers 1701.01891, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.
    6. Zbigniew Palmowski & Joanna Tumilewicz, 2018. "Drawdown insurance contracts for the Lévy-type model with the phase-type jump distribution and general reward function," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 51, pages 255-270.
    7. David Landriault & Bin Li & Hongzhong Zhang, 2017. "A Unified Approach for Drawdown (Drawup) of Time-Homogeneous Markov Processes," Papers 1702.07786, arXiv.org.
    8. Baurdoux, E.J. & Palmowski, Z. & Pistorius, M.R., 2017. "On future drawdowns of Lévy processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(8), pages 2679-2698.
    9. Zbigniew Palmowski & Budhi Surya, 2019. "Optimal valuation of American callable credit default swaps under drawdown of L\'evy insurance risk process," Papers 1904.10063, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    10. David Landriault & Bin Li & Hongzhong Zhang, 2014. "On the Frequency of Drawdowns for Brownian Motion Processes," Papers 1403.1183, arXiv.org.
    11. Baurdoux, Erik J. & Palmowski, Z & Pistorius, Martijn R, 2017. "On future drawdowns of Lévy processes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84342, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078, January.
    13. Landriault, David & Li, Bin & Li, Shu, 2015. "Analysis of a drawdown-based regime-switching Lévy insurance model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-107.
    14. Landriault, David & Li, Bin & Li, Shu, 2018. "Expected utility of the drawdown-based regime-switching risk model with state-dependent termination," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 137-147.
    15. Zhang, Gongqiu & Li, Lingfei, 2023. "A general method for analysis and valuation of drawdown risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    16. Ola Mahmoud, 2015. "The Temporal Dimension of Risk," Papers 1501.01573, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    17. Zbigniew Palmowski & Joanna Tumilewicz, 2017. "Fair valuation of L\'evy-type drawdown-drawup contracts with general insured and penalty functions," Papers 1712.04418, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    18. Damiano Rossello & Silvestro Lo Cascio, 2021. "A refined measure of conditional maximum drawdown," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 301-321, December.
    19. Palmowski, Z. & Surya, B.A., 2020. "Optimal valuation of American callable credit default swaps under drawdown of Lévy insurance risk process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 168-177.
    20. Landriault, David & Li, Bin & Wong, Jeff T.Y. & Xu, Di, 2018. "Poissonian potential measures for Lévy risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.

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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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