IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1501.01573.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Temporal Dimension of Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Ola Mahmoud

Abstract

Multi-period measures of risk account for the path that the value of an investment portfolio takes. In the context of probabilistic risk measures, the focus has traditionally been on the magnitude of investment loss and not on the dimension associated with the passage of time. In this paper, the concept of temporal path-dependent risk measure is mathematically formalized to capture the risk associated with the temporal dimension of a stochastic process. We discuss the properties of temporal measures of risk and show that they can never be coherent. We then study the temporal dimension of investment drawdown, its duration, which measures the length of excursions below a running maximum. Its properties in the context of risk measures are analyzed both theoretically and empirically. In particular, we show that duration captures serial correlation in the returns of two major asset classes. We conclude by discussing the challenges of path-dependent temporal risk estimation in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Ola Mahmoud, 2015. "The Temporal Dimension of Risk," Papers 1501.01573, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1501.01573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1501.01573
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexei Chekhlov & Stanislav Uryasev & Michael Zabarankin, 2005. "Drawdown Measure In Portfolio Optimization," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 13-58.
    2. Raphaël Douady & A.N. Shiryaev & Marc Yor, 2000. "On Probability Characteristics of "Downfalls" in a Standard Brownian Motion," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01477104, HAL.
    3. Olympia Hadjiliadis & Jan Vecer, 2006. "Drawdowns preceding rallies in the Brownian motion model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 403-409.
    4. Machina, Mark J., 1984. "Temporal risk and the nature of induced preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 199-231, August.
    5. Libor Pospisil & Jan Vecer, 2010. "Portfolio sensitivity to changes in the maximum and the maximum drawdown," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 617-627.
    6. Hongzhong Zhang & Olympia Hadjiliadis, 2010. "Drawdowns and Rallies in a Finite Time-horizon," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 293-308, June.
    7. Pospisil, Libor & Vecer, Jan & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2009. "Formulas for stopped diffusion processes with stopping times based on drawdowns and drawups," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(8), pages 2563-2578, August.
    8. Patrick Cheridito & Freddy Delbaen & Michael Kupper, 2006. "Coherent and convex monetary risk measures for unbounded càdlàg processes," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 427-448, September.
    9. Bion-Nadal, Jocelyne, 2009. "Time consistent dynamic risk processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 633-654, February.
    10. Riedel, Frank, 2004. "Dynamic coherent risk measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 185-200, August.
    11. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    12. Jocelyne Bion-Nadal, 2008. "Dynamic risk measures: Time consistency and risk measures from BMO martingales," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 219-244, April.
    13. Acerbi, Carlo & Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "On the coherence of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1487-1503, July.
    14. Peter Carr & Hongzhong Zhang & Olympia Hadjiliadis, 2011. "Maximum Drawdown Insurance," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(08), pages 1195-1230.
    15. Carlo Acerbi & Dirk Tasche, 2002. "Expected Shortfall: A Natural Coherent Alternative to Value at Risk," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 31(2), pages 379-388, July.
    16. Susanne Klöppel & Martin Schweizer, 2007. "Dynamic Indifference Valuation Via Convex Risk Measures," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 599-627, October.
    17. Vladimir Cherny & Jan Obloj, 2011. "Portfolio optimisation under non-linear drawdown constraints in a semimartingale financial model," Papers 1110.6289, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    18. Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
    19. R. Rockafellar & Stan Uryasev & Michael Zabarankin, 2006. "Generalized deviations in risk analysis," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 51-74, January.
    20. Zabarankin, Michael & Pavlikov, Konstantin & Uryasev, Stan, 2014. "Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with drawdown measure," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 508-517.
    21. Dassios, Angelos & Wu, Shanle, 2009. "On barrier strategy dividends with Parisian implementation delay for classical surplus processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 195-202, October.
    22. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    23. Sanford J. Grossman & Zhongquan Zhou, 1993. "Optimal Investment Strategies For Controlling Drawdowns," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 241-276, July.
    24. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    25. Zhang, Hongzhong & Leung, Tim & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2013. "Stochastic modeling and fair valuation of drawdown insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 840-850.
    26. Samuel Drapeau & Michael Kupper, 2013. "Risk Preferences and Their Robust Representation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 28-62, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philipp M. Möller, 2018. "Drawdown Measures And Return Moments," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(07), pages 1-42, November.
    2. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078, August.
    3. C. A. Valle & J. E. Beasley, 2019. "A nonlinear optimisation model for constructing minimal drawdown portfolios," Papers 1908.08684, arXiv.org.
    4. Cui, Zhenyu & Nguyen, Duy, 2016. "Omega diffusion risk model with surplus-dependent tax and capital injections," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 150-161.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Landriault & Bin Li & Hongzhong Zhang, 2014. "On the Frequency of Drawdowns for Brownian Motion Processes," Papers 1403.1183, arXiv.org.
    2. Zhang, Gongqiu & Li, Lingfei, 2023. "A general method for analysis and valuation of drawdown risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078, August.
    4. Hongzhong Zhang & Olympia Hadjiliadis, 2012. "Drawdowns and the Speed of Market Crash," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 739-752, September.
    5. Zhang, Hongzhong & Leung, Tim & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2013. "Stochastic modeling and fair valuation of drawdown insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 840-850.
    6. Elisa Mastrogiacomo & Emanuela Rosazza Gianin, 2019. "Time-consistency of risk measures: how strong is such a property?," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 42(1), pages 287-317, June.
    7. Damiano Rossello & Silvestro Lo Cascio, 2021. "A refined measure of conditional maximum drawdown," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 301-321, December.
    8. Lisa R. Goldberg & Ola Mahmoud, 2014. "Drawdown: From Practice to Theory and Back Again," Papers 1404.7493, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.
    9. Zhenyu Cui & Duy Nguyen, 2018. "Magnitude and Speed of Consecutive Market Crashes in a Diffusion Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 117-135, March.
    10. David Landriault & Bin Li & Hongzhong Zhang, 2017. "A Unified Approach for Drawdown (Drawup) of Time-Homogeneous Markov Processes," Papers 1702.07786, arXiv.org.
    11. Ji, Ronglin & Shi, Xuejun & Wang, Shijie & Zhou, Jinming, 2019. "Dynamic risk measures for processes via backward stochastic differential equations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 43-50.
    12. Zachary Feinstein & Birgit Rudloff, 2018. "Scalar multivariate risk measures with a single eligible asset," Papers 1807.10694, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    13. Massimiliano Amarante, 2016. "A representation of risk measures," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 39(1), pages 95-103, April.
    14. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Paulo Sergio Ceretta, 2015. "Shortfall Deviation Risk: An alternative to risk measurement," Papers 1501.02007, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    15. Zachary Feinstein & Birgit Rudloff, 2015. "Multi-portfolio time consistency for set-valued convex and coherent risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 67-107, January.
    16. c{C}au{g}{i}n Ararat & Bar{i}c{s} Bilir & Elisa Mastrogiacomo, 2022. "Decomposable sums and their implications on naturally quasiconvex risk measures," Papers 2201.05686, arXiv.org.
    17. Dejian Tian & Xunlian Wang, 2023. "Dynamic star-shaped risk measures and $g$-expectations," Papers 2305.02481, arXiv.org.
    18. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Marcin Pitera, 2014. "A unified approach to time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures in discrete time," Papers 1409.7028, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    19. Stadje, Mitja, 2010. "Extending dynamic convex risk measures from discrete time to continuous time: A convergence approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 391-404, December.
    20. Brandtner, Mario, 2013. "Conditional Value-at-Risk, spectral risk measures and (non-)diversification in portfolio selection problems – A comparison with mean–variance analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5526-5537.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1501.01573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.