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Drawdowns and the Speed of Market Crash

Author

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  • Hongzhong Zhang

    (Columbia University)

  • Olympia Hadjiliadis

    (Brooklyn College and the Graduate Center C.U.N.Y.)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the probabilistic behavior of two quantities closely related to market crashes. The first is the drawdown of an asset and the second is the duration of time between the last reset of the maximum before the drawdown and the time of the drawdown. The former is the first time the current drop of an investor’s wealth from its historical maximum reaches a pre-specified level and has been used extensively as a path-dependent measure of a market crash in the financial risk management literature. The latter is the speed at which the drawdown occurs and thus provides a measure of how fast a market crash takes place. We call this the speed of market crash. In this work we derive the joint Laplace transform of the last visit time of the maximum of a process preceding the drawdown, the speed of market crash, and the maximum of the process under general diffusion dynamics. We discuss applications of these results in the pricing of insurance claims related to the drawdown and its speed. Our applications are developed under the drifted Brownian motion model and the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongzhong Zhang & Olympia Hadjiliadis, 2012. "Drawdowns and the Speed of Market Crash," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 739-752, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:14:y:2012:i:3:d:10.1007_s11009-011-9262-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-011-9262-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Pospisil, Libor & Vecer, Jan & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2009. "Formulas for stopped diffusion processes with stopping times based on drawdowns and drawups," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(8), pages 2563-2578, August.
    7. Peter Carr & Hongzhong Zhang & Olympia Hadjiliadis, 2011. "Maximum Drawdown Insurance," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(08), pages 1195-1230.
    8. Nikeghbali, Ashkan, 2006. "A class of remarkable submartingales," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 116(6), pages 917-938, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Masala & Filippo Petroni, 2023. "Drawdown risk measures for asset portfolios with high frequency data," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 265-289, June.
    2. Zhang, Gongqiu & Li, Lingfei, 2023. "A general method for analysis and valuation of drawdown risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Zhang, Xiang & Li, Lingfei & Zhang, Gongqiu, 2021. "Pricing American drawdown options under Markov models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 1188-1205.
    4. Zhenyu Cui & Duy Nguyen, 2018. "Magnitude and Speed of Consecutive Market Crashes in a Diffusion Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 117-135, March.
    5. Claudio Fontana & Monique Jeanblanc & Shiqi Song, 2012. "On arbitrages arising from honest times," Papers 1207.1759, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2013.
    6. Zhenyu Cui, 2013. "Stochastic areas of diffusions and applications in risk theory," Papers 1312.0283, arXiv.org.
    7. Masahiko Egami & Tadao Oryu, 2017. "A direct solution method for pricing options involving the maximum process," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 967-993, October.
    8. David Landriault & Bin Li & Hongzhong Zhang, 2014. "On the Frequency of Drawdowns for Brownian Motion Processes," Papers 1403.1183, arXiv.org.
    9. Zied Ben-Salah & H'el`ene Gu'erin & Manuel Morales & Hassan Omidi Firouzi, 2014. "On the Depletion Problem for an Insurance Risk Process: New Non-ruin Quantities in Collective Risk Theory," Papers 1406.6952, arXiv.org.
    10. Claudio Fontana & Monique Jeanblanc & Shiqi Song, 2014. "On arbitrages arising with honest times," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 515-543, July.
    11. Zhang, Hongzhong & Leung, Tim & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2013. "Stochastic modeling and fair valuation of drawdown insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 840-850.
    12. Leonie Violetta Brinker, 2021. "Minimal Expected Time in Drawdown through Investment for an Insurance Diffusion Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, January.
    13. Cui, Zhenyu & Nguyen, Duy, 2016. "Omega diffusion risk model with surplus-dependent tax and capital injections," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 150-161.
    14. Vladimir Petrov & Anton Golub & Richard Olsen, 2019. "Instantaneous Volatility Seasonality of High-Frequency Markets in Directional-Change Intrinsic Time," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, April.
    15. Masahiko Egami & Tadao Oryu, 2015. "An Excursion-Theoretic Approach to Regulator’s Bank Reorganization Problem," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 527-539, June.
    16. Tim Leung & Hongzhong Zhang, 2017. "Optimal Trading with a Trailing Stop," Papers 1701.03960, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    17. Angelos Dassios & Jia Wei Lim, 2018. "An Efficient Algorithm for Simulating the Drawdown Stopping Time and the Running Maximum of a Brownian Motion," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 189-204, March.

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