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Drawdowns and Rallies in a Finite Time-horizon

Author

Listed:
  • Hongzhong Zhang

    (C.U.N.Y.)

  • Olympia Hadjiliadis

    (C.U.N.Y.)

Abstract

In this work we derive the probability that a rally of a units precedes a drawdown of equal units in a random walk model and its continuous equivalent, a Brownian motion model in the presence of a finite time-horizon. A rally is defined as the difference of the present value of the holdings of an investor and its historical minimum, while the drawdown is defined as the difference of the historical maximum and its present value. We discuss applications of these results in finance and in particular risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongzhong Zhang & Olympia Hadjiliadis, 2010. "Drawdowns and Rallies in a Finite Time-horizon," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 293-308, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:12:y:2010:i:2:d:10.1007_s11009-009-9139-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-009-9139-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexei Chekhlov & Stanislav Uryasev & Michael Zabarankin, 2005. "Drawdown Measure In Portfolio Optimization," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 13-58.
    2. Olympia Hadjiliadis & Jan Vecer, 2006. "Drawdowns preceding rallies in the Brownian motion model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 403-409.
    3. Pospisil, Libor & Vecer, Jan & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2009. "Formulas for stopped diffusion processes with stopping times based on drawdowns and drawups," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(8), pages 2563-2578, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Gongqiu & Li, Lingfei, 2023. "A general method for analysis and valuation of drawdown risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Ola Mahmoud, 2015. "The Temporal Dimension of Risk," Papers 1501.01573, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    3. Zhang, Xiang & Li, Lingfei & Zhang, Gongqiu, 2021. "Pricing American drawdown options under Markov models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 1188-1205.
    4. Zbigniew Palmowski & Joanna Tumilewicz, 2017. "Pricing insurance drawdown-type contracts with underlying L\'evy assets," Papers 1701.01891, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.
    5. David Landriault & Bin Li & Hongzhong Zhang, 2014. "On the Frequency of Drawdowns for Brownian Motion Processes," Papers 1403.1183, arXiv.org.
    6. Zhang, Hongzhong & Leung, Tim & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2013. "Stochastic modeling and fair valuation of drawdown insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 840-850.
    7. Hongzhong Zhang & Olympia Hadjiliadis, 2012. "Drawdowns and the Speed of Market Crash," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 739-752, September.
    8. Cui, Zhenyu & Nguyen, Duy, 2016. "Omega diffusion risk model with surplus-dependent tax and capital injections," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 150-161.
    9. Zhenyu Cui, 2014. "Omega risk model with tax," Papers 1403.7680, arXiv.org.
    10. Palmowski, Zbigniew & Tumilewicz, Joanna, 2018. "Pricing insurance drawdown-type contracts with underlying Lévy assets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-14.
    11. David Landriault & Bin Li & Hongzhong Zhang, 2017. "A Unified Approach for Drawdown (Drawup) of Time-Homogeneous Markov Processes," Papers 1702.07786, arXiv.org.
    12. Mijatović, Aleksandar & Pistorius, Martijn R., 2012. "On the drawdown of completely asymmetric Lévy processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(11), pages 3812-3836.

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