IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/amz/wpaper/2021-24.html

Excess mortality versus COVID-19 death rates: a spatial analysis of socioeconomic disparities and political allegiance across US states

Author

Listed:
  • Aron, Janine
  • Muellbauer, John

Abstract

Excess mortality is a more robust measure than the counts of COVID􏰀19 deaths typically used in epidemiological and spatial studies. Measurement issues around excess mortality, considering data quality and comparability both internationally and within the U.S., are surveyed. This paper is the first state􏰀level spatial analysis of cumulative excess mortality for the U.S. in the first full year of the pandemic. There is strong evidence that, given appropriate controls, states with higher Democrat vote shares experienced lower excess mortality (consistent with county􏰀 level studies of COVID􏰀19 deaths). Important demographic and socio􏰀economic controls from a broad set tested were racial composition, age structure, population density, poverty, income, temperature, and timing of arrival of the pandemic. Interaction effects suggest the Democrat vote share effect of reducing mortality was even greater in states where the pandemic arrived early. Omitting political allegiance leads to a significant underestimation of the mortality disparities for minority populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2021. "Excess mortality versus COVID-19 death rates: a spatial analysis of socioeconomic disparities and political allegiance across US states," INET Oxford Working Papers 2021-24, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:amz:wpaper:2021-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://oms-inet.files.svdcdn.com/production/files/send-9-Dec-21-Aron-and-Muellbauer-RoIW-Excess-Mortality-paper-finalr.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher R. Knittel & Bora Ozaltun, 2020. "What Does and Does Not Correlate with COVID-19 Death Rates," NBER Working Papers 27391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. James L. Doti, 2021. "Examining the impact of socioeconomic variables on COVID-19 death rates at the state level," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 15-53, April.
    4. James N. Druckman & Samara Klar & Yanna Krupnikov & Matthew Levendusky & John Barry Ryan, 2021. "Affective polarization, local contexts and public opinion in America," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 28-38, January.
    5. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 27794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Loomes, Graham & McKenzie, Lynda, 1989. "The use of QALYs in health care decision making," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 299-308, January.
    7. C. P. Farrington & N. J. Andrews & A. D. Beale & M. A. Catchpole, 1996. "A Statistical Algorithm for the Early Detection of Outbreaks of Infectious Disease," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 159(3), pages 547-563, May.
    8. Gwyn Aneuryn-Evans & Angus Deaton, 1980. "Testing Linear versus Logarithmic Regression Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 275-291.
    9. Anton Gollwitzer & Cameron Martel & William J. Brady & Philip Pärnamets & Isaac G. Freedman & Eric D. Knowles & Jay J. Van Bavel, 2020. "Partisan differences in physical distancing are linked to health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1186-1197, November.
    10. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2020. "Transatlantic excess mortality comparisons in the pandemic," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-18, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    11. Shima Hamidi & Sadegh Sabouri & Reid Ewing, 2020. "Does Density Aggravate the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 86(4), pages 495-509, October.
    12. Andrew C Stokes & Dielle J Lundberg & Irma T Elo & Katherine Hempstead & Jacob Bor & Samuel H Preston, 2021. "COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: A county-level analysis," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(5), pages 1-18, May.
    13. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    14. McLaren John, 2021. "Racial Disparity in COVID-19 Deaths: Seeking Economic Roots with Census Data," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 897-919, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cong S. Pham & Devashish Mitra, 2025. "The color of coronavirus," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 91(3), pages 1012-1047, January.
    2. Lucia Freira & Marco Sartorio & Cynthia Boruchowicz & Florencia Lopez Boo & Joaquin Navajas, 2021. "The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. James N. Druckman, 2022. "Threats to Science: Politicization, Misinformation, and Inequalities," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 700(1), pages 8-24, March.
    4. Desmet, Klaus & Wacziarg, Romain, 2022. "JUE Insight: Understanding spatial variation in COVID-19 across the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    6. Ruchi Avtar & Rajashri Chakrabarti & Lindsay Meyerson & William Nober & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, 2020. "The Affordable Care Act and the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis," Staff Reports 948, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Mario Lackner & Uwe Sunde & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2025. "The forces behind social unrest: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Mehmet Ronael & Tüzin Baycan, 2022. "Place-based factors affecting COVID-19 incidences in Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1053-1086, October.
    9. Leonardo Baccini & Abel Brodeur & Stephen Weymouth, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 739-767, April.
    10. Antoci, Angelo & Sabatini, Fabio & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Sodini, Mauro, 2022. "Experts vs. policymakers in the COVID-19 policy response," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 22-39.
    11. Uzi Rebhun & David L. Brown, 2025. "The COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Who Moved, Why, and Where?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(1), pages 1-37, February.
    12. Richard Florida & Andres Rodriguez-Pose & Michael Storper, 2020. "Cities in a Post-COVID World," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2041, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Sep 2020.
    13. Ruohao Zhang, 2022. "Economic impact payment, human mobility and COVID-19 mitigation in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 3041-3060, June.
    14. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Mohamed Doukali & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2023. "Copula-based estimation of health inequality measures with an application to COVID-19," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2023-01, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    15. Hensel, Lukas & Witte, Marc & Caria, A. Stefano & Fetzer, Thiemo & Fiorin, Stefano & Götz, Friedrich M. & Gomez, Margarita & Haushofer, Johannes & Ivchenko, Andriy & Kraft-Todd, Gordon & Reutskaja, El, 2022. "Global Behaviors, Perceptions, and the Emergence of Social Norms at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 473-496.
    16. Sumedha Gupta & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2020. "Mandated and Voluntary Social Distancing During The COVID-19 Epidemic: A Review," NBER Working Papers 28139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Cho, Jung-Hoon & Kim, Dong-Kyu & Kim, Eui-Jin, 2022. "Multi-scale causality analysis between COVID-19 cases and mobility level using ensemble empirical mode decomposition and causal decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    18. R. Jason Faberman & Daniel Hartley, 2020. "The Relationship Between Race, Type of Work, and Covid-19 Infection Rates," Working Paper Series WP2020-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    19. Grimalda, Gianluca & Murtin, Fabrice & Pipke, David & Putterman, Louis & Sutter, Matthias, 2023. "The politicized pandemic: Ideological polarization and the behavioral response to COVID-19," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    20. Barceló, Joan & Sheen, Greg Chih-Hsin & Tung, Hans H. & Wu, Wen-Chin, 2022. "Vaccine nationalism among the public: A cross-country experimental evidence of own-country bias towards COVID-19 vaccination," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:amz:wpaper:2021-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: INET Oxford admin team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inoxfuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.