IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-46582-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea M. Tilstra

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Antonino Polizzi

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Sander Wagner

    (University of Oxford)

  • Evelina T. Akimova

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

The immediate, direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United States population are substantial. Millions of people were affected by the pandemic: many died, others did not give birth, and still others could not migrate. Research that has examined these individual phenomena is important, but fragmented. The disruption of mortality, fertility, and migration jointly affected U.S. population counts and, consequently, future population structure. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the cohort component projection method to isolate the effect of the pandemic on U.S. population estimates until 2060. If the pandemic had not occurred, we project that the population of the U.S. would have 2.1 million (0.63%) more people in 2025, and 1.7 million (0.44%) more people in 2060. Pandemic-induced migration changes are projected to have a larger long-term effect on future population size than mortality, despite comparable short-term effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea M. Tilstra & Antonino Polizzi & Sander Wagner & Evelina T. Akimova, 2024. "Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46582-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46582-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46582-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-46582-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dhanani, Lindsay Y. & Franz, Berkeley, 2021. "Why public health framing matters: An experimental study of the effects of COVID-19 framing on prejudice and xenophobia in the United States," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    2. Theresa Andrasfay & Noreen Goldman, 2021. "Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(5), pages 2014746118-, February.
    3. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2007. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 537-566, April.
    4. Per Engzell & Arun Frey & Mark D. Verhagen, 2021. "Learning loss due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(17), pages 2022376118-, April.
    5. John Bongaarts, 2004. "Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Tom Wilson & Jeromey Temple & Elin Charles-Edwards, 2022. "Will the COVID-19 pandemic affect population ageing in Australia?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 479-493, December.
    7. Guillaume Marois & Alain Bélanger & Wolfgang Lutz, 2020. "Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(14), pages 7690-7695, April.
    8. Andrew C Stokes & Dielle J Lundberg & Irma T Elo & Katherine Hempstead & Jacob Bor & Samuel H Preston, 2021. "COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: A county-level analysis," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(5), pages 1-18, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas B. Foster & Leticia Fernandez & Sonya R. Porter & Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej, 2022. "Age, Sex, and Racial/Ethnic Disparities and Temporal-Spatial Variation in Excess All-Cause Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Linked Administrative and Census Bureau Data," Working Papers 22-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    3. Fabio Fontana & Kelsey Bourbeau & Terence Moriarty & Michael Pereira da Silva, 2022. "The Relationship between Physical Activity, Sleep Quality, and Stress: A Study of Teachers during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-9, November.
    4. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    5. Svaleryd, Helena & Vlachos, Jonas, 2022. "COVID-19 and School Closures," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1008, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Yekaterina Chzhen & Jennifer Symonds & Dympna Devine & Júlia Mikolai & Susan Harkness & Seaneen Sloan & Gabriela Martinez Sainz, 2022. "Learning in a Pandemic: Primary School children’s Emotional Engagement with Remote Schooling during the spring 2020 Covid-19 Lockdown in Ireland," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 15(4), pages 1517-1538, August.
    7. Edward L. Glaeser, 2021. "Urban Resilience," NBER Working Papers 29261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Camille Chambonnière & Nicole Fearnbach & Léna Pelissier & Pauline Genin & Alicia Fillon & Audrey Boscaro & Line Bonjean & Mélina Bailly & Julie Siroux & Terry Guirado & Bruno Pereira & David Thivel &, 2021. "Adverse Collateral Effects of COVID-19 Public Health Restrictions on Physical Fitness and Cognitive Performance in Primary School Children," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-10, October.
    9. Nicola Fuchs-Schünde & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2022. "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1647-1683.
    10. Said Outlioua & Abdesselam Fazouane, 2023. "Which factors affect the sustainability of pension schemes?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 89-108, February.
    11. Kuzmanic, Danilo & Valenzuela, Juan Pablo & Claro, Susana & Canales, Andrea & Cerda, Daniela & Undurraga, Eduardo A., 2023. "Socioeconomic disparities in the reopening of schools during the pandemic in Chile," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    12. Contreras, M. Ignacia & Duryea, Suzanne & Martínez A., Claudia, 2023. "The effect of the pandemic on the transition to tertiary education in Chile: A focus on students with disabilities," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. Rita Takács & Szabolcs Takács & Judit T. Kárász & Attila Oláh & Zoltán Horváth, 2023. "The impact of the first wave of COVID-19 on students’ attainment, analysed by IRT modelling method," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Correia, Sergio & Luck, Stephan & Verner, Emil, 2022. "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 917-957, December.
    15. M. Niaz Asadullah & Anindita Bhattacharjee, 2022. "Digital Divide or Digital Provide? Technology, Time Use, and Learning Loss during COVID-19," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(10), pages 1934-1957, October.
    16. Kim Hua Tan & Poh Phui Chan & Nur-Ehsan Mohd Said, 2021. "Higher Education Students’ Online Instruction Perceptions: A Quality Virtual Learning Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-24, September.
    17. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Premia," PGDA Working Papers 1206, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    18. David Backus & Thomas Cooley & Espen Henriksen, 2013. "Demography and Low-Frequency Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, pages 94-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Kalewold Hailu Kalewold, 2023. "Lockdowns and the ethics of intergenerational compensation," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 271-289, August.
    20. Gómez-Lobo, Andrés & Gutiérrez, Mauro & Huamaní, Sandro & Marino, Diego & Serebrisky, Tomás & Solís, Ben, 2022. "Access to water and COVID-19: a regression discontinuity analysis for the peri-urban areas of Metropolitan Lima, Peru," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12332, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46582-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.