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Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea M. Tilstra

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Antonino Polizzi

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Sander Wagner

    (University of Oxford)

  • Evelina T. Akimova

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

The immediate, direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United States population are substantial. Millions of people were affected by the pandemic: many died, others did not give birth, and still others could not migrate. Research that has examined these individual phenomena is important, but fragmented. The disruption of mortality, fertility, and migration jointly affected U.S. population counts and, consequently, future population structure. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the cohort component projection method to isolate the effect of the pandemic on U.S. population estimates until 2060. If the pandemic had not occurred, we project that the population of the U.S. would have 2.1 million (0.63%) more people in 2025, and 1.7 million (0.44%) more people in 2060. Pandemic-induced migration changes are projected to have a larger long-term effect on future population size than mortality, despite comparable short-term effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea M. Tilstra & Antonino Polizzi & Sander Wagner & Evelina T. Akimova, 2024. "Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46582-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46582-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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