IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jku/econwp/2023-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Forces Behind Social Unrest: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Lackner
  • Uwe Sunde
  • Rudolf Winter-Ebmer

Abstract

Despite growing concerns about the erosion of social cohesion and intensified social unrest as consequence of increasing economic and emotional stress, evidence for such a link is still lacking. We use a unique combination of nationally representative survey data, event data on social unrest, and data on Covid-19 fatalities and unemployment at a weekly resolution to investigate the emotional forces behind social unrest in the context of the pandemic in the USA. The results show that pandemic-related unemployment and Covid19 fatalities intensified negative emotional stress and led to a deterioration of economic confidence among individuals. The prevalence of negative emotional stress, particularly in economically strained and politically polarized environments, was, in turn, associated with intensified social unrest as measured by political protests. No such link is found for economic perceptions

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Lackner & Uwe Sunde & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2023. "The Forces Behind Social Unrest: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic," Economics working papers 2023-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2023-07
    Note: English
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.jku.at/papers/2023/wp2307.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Labor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7rx7t91p, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Monnet, Nathalie & Ticku, Rohit, 2022. "Shutdown policies and conflict worldwide," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 240-255.
    3. Censolo Roberto & Morelli Massimo, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Potential Consequences for Social Stability," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 1-05, September.
    4. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Dave, Dhaval M. & Friedson, Andrew I. & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & Sabia, Joseph J. & Safford, Samuel, 2020. "Black Lives Matter Protests, Social Distancing, and COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13388, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Staneva, Anita & Carmignani, Fabrizio & Rohde, Nicholas, 2022. "Personality, gender, and age resilience to the mental health effects of COVID-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    7. Maarten Meeuwis & Jonathan A. Parker & Antoinette Schoar & Duncan Simester, 2022. "Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3191-3247, December.
    8. Jedwab, Remi & Khan, Amjad M. & Russ, Jason & Zaveri, Esha D., 2021. "Epidemics, pandemics, and social conflict: Lessons from the past and possible scenarios for COVID-19," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    10. Steven Callander & Juan Carlos Carbajal, 2022. "Cause and Effect in Political Polarization: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(4), pages 825-880.
    11. Martin Bisgaard, 2019. "How Getting the Facts Right Can Fuel Partisan‐Motivated Reasoning," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(4), pages 824-839, October.
    12. Bree J. Lang & Matthew Lang, 2021. "Pandemics, Protests, and Firearms," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(2), pages 131-163.
    13. Maria Polyakova & Geoffrey Kocks & Victoria Udalova & Amy Finkelstein, 2020. "Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(45), pages 27934-27934, November.
    14. Basedau, Matthias & Deitch, Mora, 2021. "One year after: Has the COVID-19 pandemic increased violence in sub-Saharan Africa?," GIGA Working Papers 327, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    15. Prior, Markus & Sood, Gaurav & Khanna, Kabir, 2015. "You Cannot be Serious: The Impact of Accuracy Incentives on Partisan Bias in Reports of Economic Perceptions," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 10(4), pages 489-518, December.
    16. James N. Druckman & Samara Klar & Yanna Krupnikov & Matthew Levendusky & John Barry Ryan, 2021. "Affective polarization, local contexts and public opinion in America," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 28-38, January.
    17. Romer, Daniel & Jamieson, Kathleen Hall, 2021. "Conspiratorial thinking, selective exposure to conservative media, and response to COVID-19 in the US," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    18. Arenas-Arroyo, Esther & Fernandez-Kranz, Daniel & Nollenberger, Natalia, 2021. "Intimate partner violence under forced cohabitation and economic stress: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    19. Christopher McConnell & Yotam Margalit & Neil Malhotra & Matthew Levendusky, 2018. "The Economic Consequences of Partisanship in a Polarized Era," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(1), pages 5-18, January.
    20. Anton Gollwitzer & Cameron Martel & William J. Brady & Philip Pärnamets & Isaac G. Freedman & Eric D. Knowles & Jay J. Van Bavel, 2020. "Partisan differences in physical distancing are linked to health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1186-1197, November.
    21. Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Rui Xu, 2020. "A Vicious Cycle: How Pandemics Lead to Economic Despair and Social Unrest," IMF Working Papers 2020/216, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Toffolutti, Veronica & Plach, Samuel & Maksimovic, Teodora & Piccitto, Giorgio & Mascherini, Massimiliano & Mencarini, Letizia & Aassve, Arnstein, 2022. "The association between COVID-19 policy responses and mental well-being: Evidence from 28 European countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    23. Julian Emmler & Bernd Fitzenberger, 2022. "Temporary overpessimism: Job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 621-661, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lackner, Mario & Sunde, Uwe & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2021. "Covid-19 and the Forces Behind Social Unrest," IHS Working Paper Series 37, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    2. Lucia Freira & Marco Sartorio & Cynthia Boruchowicz & Florencia Lopez Boo & Joaquin Navajas, 2021. "The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. James N. Druckman, 2022. "Threats to Science: Politicization, Misinformation, and Inequalities," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 700(1), pages 8-24, March.
    4. Chowdhury, Subhasish & Karmakar, Senjuti, 2022. "The Interrelationship between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Conflict Behavior: A Survey," MPRA Paper 113311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Floyd Jiuyun Zhang, 2023. "Political endorsement by Nature and trust in scientific expertise during COVID-19," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 696-706, May.
    6. Sumedha Gupta & Laura Montenovo & Thuy Nguyen & Felipe Lozano‐Rojas & Ian Schmutte & Kosali Simon & Bruce A. Weinberg & Coady Wing, 2023. "Effects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 166-193, January.
    7. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2022. "Excess Mortality Versus COVID‐19 Death Rates: A Spatial Analysis of Socioeconomic Disparities and Political Allegiance Across U.S. States," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 348-392, June.
    8. Facciani, Matthew & Lazić, Aleksandra & Viggiano, Gracemarie & McKay, Tara, 2023. "Political network composition predicts vaccination attitudes," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    9. Horvath, Akos & Kay, Benjamin & Wix, Carlo, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Leonardo Baccini & Abel Brodeur & Stephen Weymouth, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 739-767, April.
    11. James N. Druckman & Samara Klar & Yanna Krupnikov & Matthew Levendusky & John Barry Ryan, 2021. "Affective polarization, local contexts and public opinion in America," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 28-38, January.
    12. Ruohao Zhang, 2022. "Economic impact payment, human mobility and COVID-19 mitigation in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 3041-3060, June.
    13. Brodeur, Abel & Baccini, Leonardo & Weymouth, Stephen, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and US Presidential Elections," MetaArXiv sxajv, Center for Open Science.
    14. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Chad Cotti & Bryan Engelhardt & Joshua Foster & Erik Nesson & Paul Niekamp, 2021. "The relationship between in‐person voting and COVID‐19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 760-777, October.
    16. Nicholas W. Papageorge & Matthew V. Zahn & Michèle Belot & Eline Broek-Altenburg & Syngjoo Choi & Julian C. Jamison & Egon Tripodi, 2021. "Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 691-738, April.
    17. Kwan Ok Lee & Hyojung Lee, 2022. "Public responses to COVID‐19 case disclosure and their spatial implications," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 732-756, June.
    18. Hensel, Lukas & Witte, Marc & Caria, A. Stefano & Fetzer, Thiemo & Fiorin, Stefano & Götz, Friedrich M. & Gomez, Margarita & Haushofer, Johannes & Ivchenko, Andriy & Kraft-Todd, Gordon & Reutskaja, El, 2022. "Global Behaviors, Perceptions, and the Emergence of Social Norms at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 473-496.
    19. Carola Binder, 2020. "Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 721-730, October.
    20. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic shocks; Covid-19; civil unrest; emotional stress; party affiliation;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2023-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: René Böheim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vlinzat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.