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Cause and Effect in Political Polarization: A Dynamic Analysis

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  • Steven Callander
  • Juan Carlos Carbajal

Abstract

Polarization is both a description of the current state of politics and a dynamic path that has rippled across the political domain over decades. We provide a simple model that explains why polarization appears incrementally and why it was elites who polarized first and more dramatically, whereas mass polarization came later and has been less pronounced. We incorporate an ostensibly unrelated finding about how voters form preferences into a dynamic model of elections. This change, when combined with the response of strategic candidates, creates a feedback loop that can replicate many features of the data. We explore the model’s implications for other aspects of politics and trace what it predicts for the future of polarization.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Callander & Juan Carlos Carbajal, 2022. "Cause and Effect in Political Polarization: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(4), pages 825-880.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/718200
    DOI: 10.1086/718200
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Lackner & Uwe Sunde & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2025. "The forces behind social unrest: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Little, Andrew T. & Nunnari, Salvatore, 2025. "Does Partisanship or Arguing Activate Political Motivated Reasoning?," SocArXiv sxayc_v1, Center for Open Science.
    3. Amirarsalan Rajabi & Alexander V. Mantzaris & Kuldip Singh Atwal & Ivan Garibay, 2021. "Exploring the disparity of influence between users in the discussion of Brexit on Twitter," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 903-917, November.
    4. Lockwood, Ben & Le, Minh & Rockey, James, 2024. "Dynamic electoral competition with voter loss-aversion and imperfect recall," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    5. Kurt D. Casas, 2025. "Demagoguery and Power: A Discourse Analysis of Duterte’s War on Drugs in His Inaugural and Final Sonas," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(7), pages 153-162, July.
    6. Salvatore Nunnari & Andrew T. Little, 2025. "Does Partisanship or Arguing Activate Political Motivated Reasoning?," CESifo Working Paper Series 12315, CESifo.
    7. Gerald Carlino & Thorsten Drautzburg & Robert Inman & Nicholas Zarra, 2023. "Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from US States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 701-737, March.
    8. Cano Macias, Ricardo & Ruiz Vera, Jorge Mauricio, 2024. "Dynamics of opinion polarization in a population," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 31-40.
    9. Eugen Dimant & Michele Gelfand & Anna Hochleitner & Silvia Sonderegger, 2023. "Strategic Behavior with Tight, Loose and Polarized Norms," CESifo Working Paper Series 10233, CESifo.
    10. Alexandre Arnout, 2024. "Flip-flopping and Endogenous Turnout," AMSE Working Papers 2423, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

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