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Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field

Author

Listed:
  • Rawley Heimer

    (Carroll School of Management, Boston College)

  • Zwetelina Iliewa

    (University of Bonn)

  • Alex Imax

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago)

  • Martin Weber

    (Department of Finance, University of Mannheim, and the Centre for European Policy Research)

Abstract

We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and two preregistered experiments, we compare people’s initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. In both settings, people accept risk as part of a “loss-exit” strategy—planning to continue taking risk after gains and stopping after losses. Actual behavior follows the reverse pattern, deviating from initial strategies by cutting gains early and chasing losses. More individuals accept risk when offered a commitment to their initial strategy. Our results help reconcile seemingly contradictory findings on risk-taking in static versus dynamic contexts. We discuss implications for theory and welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Rawley Heimer & Zwetelina Iliewa & Alex Imax & Martin Weber, 2021. "Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 094, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:094
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    Cited by:

    1. Hueber, Laura & Schwaiger, Rene, 2022. "Debiasing through experience sampling: The case of myopic loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 87-138.
    2. Alfonso-Costillo, Antonio, 2021. "Taking risks by flying paper airplanes," MPRA Paper 108541, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sang Hu & Jan Obłój & Xun Yu Zhou, 2023. "A Casino Gambling Model Under Cumulative Prospect Theory: Analysis and Algorithm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2474-2496, April.
    4. Cao, Qian & Li, Jianbiao & Niu, Xiaofei, 2022. "Tempus fugit: The impact of time constraint on investor behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 67-81.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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