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Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence From the Lab and Field

Author

Listed:
  • Rawley Heimer

  • Zwetelina Iliewa

  • Alex Imas

  • Martin Weber

Abstract

We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and two preregistered experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. In both settings, people accept risk as part of a "loss-exit" strategy|planning to continue taking risk after gains and stopping after losses. Actual behavior follows the reverse pattern, deviating from initial strategies by cutting gains early and chasing losses. More individuals accept risk when offered a commitment to their initial strategy. Our results help reconcile seemingly contradictory findings on risk-taking in static versus dynamic contexts. We discuss implications for theory and welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Rawley Heimer & Zwetelina Iliewa & Alex Imas & Martin Weber, 2021. "Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence From the Lab and Field," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_274, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_274
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    Cited by:

    1. Nina Klocke & Matthias Pelster, 2026. "Inside the mind of retail short sellers," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-49, December.
    2. Hueber, Laura & Schwaiger, Rene, 2022. "Debiasing through experience sampling: The case of myopic loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 87-138.
    3. Pelster, Matthias, 2024. "Leverage constraints and investors' choice of underlyings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Sang Hu & Jan Obłój & Xun Yu Zhou, 2023. "A Casino Gambling Model Under Cumulative Prospect Theory: Analysis and Algorithm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2474-2496, April.
    5. Linda Thunström & Andrea Mannberg & Benjamin Gilbert & George Loewenstein, 2025. "(Dis)satisfaction with risk preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 29-64, February.
    6. Ahn, Yongkil, 2024. "Optimal stopping decisions and the disposition effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo & Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzucchelli, Lorenzo, 2024. "Integrating narrow and wide framing disposition effect: A novel approach incorporating perceived risk and realized asset performance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 422-432.
    8. Cao, Qian & Li, Jianbiao & Niu, Xiaofei, 2022. "Tempus fugit: The impact of time constraint on investor behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 67-81.
    9. Fenfang Li & Xun Xu & Kam Yu, 2025. "Welfare Effects of Price Changes in Government Lotteries," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 303-321, December.
    10. He, Xuedong & Hu, Sang, 2024. "Never stop or never start? Optimal stopping under a mixture of CPT and EUT preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    11. Aristidou, Andreas & Giga, Aleksandar & Lee, Suk & Zapatero, Fernando, 2025. "Aspirational utility and investment behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    12. Benjamin Christoffersen & Arvid Hoffmann & Zwetelina Iliewa & Lena Jaroszek, 2025. "Experience Effects on Wall Street vs. Main Street: Field and Lab Evidence of Context Dependence," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_684, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    13. Alfonso-Costillo, Antonio, 2021. "Taking risks by flying paper airplanes," MPRA Paper 108541, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kaourma, Theofilia & Milidonis, Andreas & Nishiotis, George & Panayides, Marios, 2025. "News and intraday retail investor order flow in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    15. Zhao, Shuchen, 2026. "Pricing skewed assets in multi-asset experimental markets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 107-148.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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