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Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field

Author

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  • Rawley Z. Heimer
  • Zwetelina Iliewa
  • Alex Imas
  • Martin Weber

Abstract

We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and a series of experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. Across settings, people accept risk as part of a “loss-exit” strategy—planning to continue taking risk after gains and stopping after losses. Actual behavior deviates from initial strategies by cutting gains early and chasing losses. More people accept risk when offered a commitment to their initial strategy. Our results help reconcile seemingly contradictory findings on risk-taking in static versus dynamic contexts. We explore implications for theory and welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Rawley Z. Heimer & Zwetelina Iliewa & Alex Imas & Martin Weber, 2023. "Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field," NBER Working Papers 30910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30910
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Christoffersen & Arvid Hoffmann & Zwetelina Iliewa & Lena Jaroszek, 2025. "Experience Effects on Wall Street vs. Main Street: Field and Lab Evidence of Context Dependence," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_684, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Kaourma, Theofilia & Milidonis, Andreas & Nishiotis, George & Panayides, Marios, 2025. "News and intraday retail investor order flow in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Linda Thunström & Andrea Mannberg & Benjamin Gilbert & George Loewenstein, 2025. "(Dis)satisfaction with risk preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 29-64, February.
    4. Cao, Qian & Li, Jianbiao & Niu, Xiaofei, 2022. "Tempus fugit: The impact of time constraint on investor behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 67-81.
    5. Aristidou, Andreas & Giga, Aleksandar & Lee, Suk & Zapatero, Fernando, 2025. "Aspirational utility and investment behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    6. Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo & Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzucchelli, Lorenzo, 2024. "Integrating narrow and wide framing disposition effect: A novel approach incorporating perceived risk and realized asset performance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 422-432.
    7. He, Xuedong & Hu, Sang, 2024. "Never stop or never start? Optimal stopping under a mixture of CPT and EUT preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    8. Hueber, Laura & Schwaiger, Rene, 2022. "Debiasing through experience sampling: The case of myopic loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 87-138.
    9. Pelster, Matthias, 2024. "Leverage constraints and investors' choice of underlyings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    10. Sang Hu & Jan Obłój & Xun Yu Zhou, 2023. "A Casino Gambling Model Under Cumulative Prospect Theory: Analysis and Algorithm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2474-2496, April.
    11. Ahn, Yongkil, 2024. "Optimal stopping decisions and the disposition effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    12. Alfonso-Costillo, Antonio, 2021. "Taking risks by flying paper airplanes," MPRA Paper 108541, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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