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Dynamic risk preferences under realized and paper outcomes

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  • Nielsen, Kirby

Abstract

We conduct a large-scale test of dynamic risk preferences. While most of the literature on dynamic risk restricts attention to positively skewed gambles, subjects in our experiment tend to choose negatively skewed lotteries. This allows us to study dynamic risk preferences in an environment that the literature has not analyzed. We find evidence of the reinforcement effect—individuals take on more risk after a gain and take on less risk after a loss. Furthermore, we exogenously vary whether these outcomes are “realized” or on paper, according to the distinction put forth by Imas (2016). We find little difference in the responses to realized and paper outcomes in environments of negatively skewed risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Nielsen, Kirby, 2019. "Dynamic risk preferences under realized and paper outcomes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 68-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:161:y:2019:i:c:p:68-78
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2019.03.016
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dalmia, Prateik & Filiz-Ozbay, Emel, 2021. "Your success is my motivation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 49-85.
    3. Christoph Merkle & Jan Müller-Dethard & Martin Weber, 2021. "Closing a mental account: the realization effect for gains and losses," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 303-329, March.
    4. Rawley Heimer & Zwetelina Iliewa & Alex Imas & Martin Weber, 2021. "Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence From the Lab and Field," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_274, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    5. Flepp, Raphael & Meier, Philippe & Franck, Egon, 2021. "The effect of paper outcomes versus realized outcomes on subsequent risk-taking: Field evidence from casino gambling," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 45-55.
    6. Horn, Dániel & Kiss, Hubert János & Lénárd, Tünde, 2022. "Gender differences in preferences of adolescents: Evidence from a large-scale classroom experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 478-522.
    7. Sautua, Santiago I., 2020. "When diversification clashes with the reinforcement heuristic: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 196-211.
    8. Mujcic, Redzo & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2022. "How Do Humans Respond to Huge Financial Losses?," IZA Discussion Papers 15536, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Hermanns, Benedicta & Kokot, Johanna, 2023. "Contextual framing effects on risk aversion assessed using the bomb risk elicitation task," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    10. Philippe Meier & Raphael Flepp & Maximilian Rüdisser & Egon Franck, 2020. "The effect of paper versus realized losses on subsequent risk-taking: Field evidence from casino gambling," Working Papers 385, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic risk; Reinforcement effect; History-dependent preferences; Prospect theory; Realization effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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