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Productivity growth at the sectoral level: measurement and projections

  • Dijk, Michiel van

Global simulation models are increasingly used to assess future scenarios and the impact of policies related to food security, land use and climate change. A crucial element in these studies are assumptions on productivity change and technical progress, the key drivers of long-run economic growth and structural change. However, despite their importance, these assumptions are often simplistic or rather ad hoc. This paper addresses this issue by presenting sector and country specific projections for labour productivity till the year 2050 for seven economic regions in the world.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/152268
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Paper provided by International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium in its series Proceedings Issues, 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain with number 152268.

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Date of creation: Jun 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iatr13:152268
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://iatrcweb.org/

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  9. Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2009. "Structural change and growth accelerations in Asia and Latin America: a new sectoral data set," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(2), pages 165-190, June.
  10. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  11. Pavitt, Keith, 1984. "Sectoral patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 343-373, December.
  12. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  13. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
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  17. Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Unconditional Convergence," NBER Working Papers 17546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  19. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  20. Breschi, Stefano & Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi, 2000. "Technological Regimes and Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 388-410, April.
  21. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages F374-F403, 06.
  22. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
  23. Ludena, Carlos & Hertel, Thomas & Preckel, Paul & Foster, Kenneth & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," GTAP Working Papers 2220, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  24. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-38, December.
  25. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 2001. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Agriculture versus Manufacturing," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 403-22, January.
  26. Inklaar, Robert & Timmer, Marcel P., 2009. "Productivity Convergence Across Industries And Countries: The Importance Of Theory-Based Measurement," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S2), pages 218-240, September.
  27. Nin, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth & Rae, Allan, 2004. "Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China's meat trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, July.
  28. Gollin, Douglas & Parente, Stephen L. & Rogerson, Richard, 2007. "The food problem and the evolution of international income levels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1230-1255, May.
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