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Estimating Site-Specific Crop Yield Response using Varying Coefficient Models

Author

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  • Li, Xiaofei
  • Coble, Keith H.
  • Tack, Jesse B.
  • Barnett, Barry J.

Abstract

This study estimates the site-specific crop yield response function using varying coefficient models. It is widely recognized that the parameters of yield response function vary dramatically across space and over time. Previous studies usually capture this variability of response by using locational and time dummy variables. While that approach reveals the existence of the response variability, the exact pattern of the variability is unknown, and the capacity of ex ante prediction of such models are limited. This study takes a step forward to explicitly explain how the response varies with the actual site characteristic variables, such as soil, water, topography, weather, and other factors that are commonly available to producers. By using the varying coefficient model, the parameters of the response function are specified to change continuously with those site variables. Based on a simulation data set, the varying coefficient model is demonstrate to outperform the site-dummy model by creating better variable rate application (VRA) fertilizer prescriptions. We further propose to apply the model to large sample of high resolution production data, and create ex ante spatially explicit optimal VRA fertilizer recommendations. The ultimate goal is to develop a precision decision system which can statistically turn the soil testing and weather forecasting information into input application prescriptions for producers.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xiaofei & Coble, Keith H. & Tack, Jesse B. & Barnett, Barry J., 2016. "Estimating Site-Specific Crop Yield Response using Varying Coefficient Models," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea16:235798
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.235798
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/235798/files/Site-Specific%20Yield%20Response_2016_05_25_AAEA_Draft%20A.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luc Anselin & Rodolfo Bongiovanni & Jess Lowenberg-DeBoer, 2004. "A Spatial Econometric Approach to the Economics of Site-Specific Nitrogen Management in Corn Production," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 675-687.
    2. Neil R. Miller, 2006. "Is Site-Specific Yield Response Consistent over Time? Does It Pay?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(2), pages 471-483.
    3. Hurley, Terrance M. & Malzer, Gary L. & Kilian, Bernard, 2003. "Estimating Site-Specific Nitrogen Crop Response Functions: A Conceptual Framework And Geostatistical Model," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21950, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Bouman, B. A. M. & van Keulen, H. & van Laar, H. H. & Rabbinge, R., 1996. "The `School of de Wit' crop growth simulation models: A pedigree and historical overview," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 52(2-3), pages 171-198.
    5. Bullock, David S. & Lowenberg-DeBoer, Jess & Swinton, Scott M., 2002. "Adding value to spatially managed inputs by understanding site-specific yield response," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 233-245, November.
    6. Hurley, Terrance M. & Oishi, Kikuo & Malzer, Gary L., 2005. "Estimating the Potential Value of Variable Rate Nitrogen Applications: A Comparison of Spatial Econometric and Geostatistical Models," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 1-19, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis;
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