Price Expectations and Supply Response
Price in agricultural supply equations is usually the expected price. In general, models of agricultural supply response assume that their representation of producer expectations is correct. If this assumption is wrong, the supply response parameter will have embodied within it an estimate of the expected price distortion, biasing the estimated parameter. Furthermore, no effort has been made in existing models to allow for heterogeneous price expectations. In almost every supply model, one price estimate is used to represent the price expectations of hundreds or thousands of producers, which could masks a wide range behavior among heterogenous producers. Rather than assuming the model’s representation of producer expectations is correct, the goal of this paper is to use revealed producer behavior to assist in the estimation of producer’s expected prices. To explicitly address producers’ formation of the expected price, this study jointly estimates the supply equation and the price expectation equation. The empirical application is a pooled time-series cross-section data analysis of U.S. wheat and corn supply data at the county level.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shumway, C. Richard & Chang, A. Anne, 1980. "Supply Response Of Texas Field Crops: An Evaluation Of The Cet Linear Supply Model," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(02), December.
- Askari, Hossein & Cummings, John Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Agricultural Supply Response with the Nerlove Model: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 257-92, June.
- Arnade, Carlos Anthony & Cooper, Joseph C., 2010. "Acreage Decisions When Risk Preferences Vary," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61005, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.