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Rationality, Price Risk, And Response

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  • Seale, James L., Jr.
  • Shonkwiler, John Scott

Abstract

Risk has long been recognized as potentially important in determining agricultural supply. However, supply response models have either incorporated risk in an ad hoc manner or not at all. A rational expectations supply response model incorporating price risk is developed, an estimation procedure suggested, and an empirical example presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Seale, James L., Jr. & Shonkwiler, John Scott, 1987. "Rationality, Price Risk, And Response," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(01), pages 1-8, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:29317
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.29317
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goodwin, Thomas H & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1982. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in an Agricultural Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 658-667, November.
    2. J. Scott Shonkwiler & Robert D. Emerson, 1982. "Imports and the Supply of Winter Tomatoes: An Application of Rational Expectations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(4), pages 634-641.
    3. Batra, Raveendra N & Ullah, Aman, 1974. "Competitive Firm and the Theory of Input Demand under Price Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 537-548, May/June.
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    5. B. Wade Brorsen & Jean-Paul Chavas & Warren R. Grant & L. D. Schnake, 1985. "Marketing Margins and Price Uncertainty: The Case of the U.S. Wheat Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 521-528.
    6. Eckstein, Zvi, 1984. "A Rational Expectations Model of Agricultural Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-19, February.
    7. White, Halbert, 1983. "Corrigendum [Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models]," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 513-513, March.
    8. Sheffrin,Steven M., 1996. "Rational Expectations," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521474009, Enero-Abr.
    9. Frances Antonovitz & Terry Roe, 1984. "The Value of a Rational Expectations Forecast in a Risky Market: A Theoretical and Empirical Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(5), pages 717-723.
    10. Kennan, John, 1979. "The Estimation of Partial Adjustment Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1441-1455, November.
    11. Daniel B. Suits, 1955. "An Econometric Model of the Watermelon Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 237-251.
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    Cited by:

    1. Epperson, James E. & Huang, Wan-Tran, 1992. "The Potential For Intraseasonal Market Flow Management Of Southeastern Sweet Potatoes," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 23(2), pages 1-8, June.
    2. Mosadegh Sedghy, Bahareh & Tamini, Lota D. & Lambert, Remy, 2021. "Implications of the state assistance program in the province of Quebec: the case of lamb production," MPRA Paper 112162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Chembezi, Duncan M. & Womack, Abner W., 1992. "Regional Acreage Response For U.S. Corn And Wheat: The Effects Of Government Programs," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), pages 1-12, July.
    4. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    5. Ghatak S. & Seale J., 2001. "Rice, Risk and Rationality: Supply Response in West Bengal, India," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 155-155, July - De.
    6. Bullock, David S. & Garcia, Philip & Shin, Kie-Yup, 2005. "Measuring producer welfare under output price uncertainty and risk non-neutrality," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(01), pages 1-21.
    7. Cho, Gyu D., 1992. "Estimation of a Wheat Acreage Response Function for Kansas," Staff Papers 118174, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    8. Epperson, James E. & Huang, Wan-Tran, 1994. "The Potential For Supply Management Of Southeastern Sweet Onions," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 25(2), pages 1-7, September.
    9. Arnade, Carlos Anthony & Cooper, Joseph, 2013. "Price Expectations and Supply Response," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150490, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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