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Public Debt and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Ghana

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  • A.U. Aimola

    (University of South Africa)

  • N.M. Odhiambo

    (University of South Africa)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of public debt on inflation in Ghana using annual data during the period 1983-2018. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and an error correction model to examine this linkage. The cointegrating regression results reveal evidence of a stable long run relationship between inflation and the explanatory variables in the presence of a structural break. The findings also show a positive and significant impact of public debt on inflation. These results were found to hold, irrespective of whether the regression was conducted in the short run or the long run. The study confirms the presence of the inflationary effects of public debt in Ghana. The government should, therefore, be prudent when considering increases in public debt to minimise volatility in inflation and its associated risks to the economy.

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  • A.U. Aimola & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Public Debt and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Working Papers AESRI-2021-06, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:afa:wpaper:aesri-2021-06
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    Cited by:

    1. Aimola Akingbade U. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2022. "Is the effect of public debt on inflation symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from the Gambia," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57, June.
    2. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2022. "Does Public Debt Granger-Cause Inflation in Tanzania? A Multivariate Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(1), pages 75-100.
    3. T. Saungweme & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Does Public Debt Granger-Cause Inflation In Tanzania? A Multivariate Analysis," Working Papers AESRI-2021-25, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Dec 2022.
    4. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    5. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Does Public Debt Granger-Cause Inflation In Tanzania? A Multivariate Analysis," Working Papers AESRI06, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    6. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "Does public debt granger-cause inflation? A multivariate analysis," Working Papers 28342, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    7. Van Bon Nguyen, 2022. "Does governance matter for the public debt–inflation relationship in developed countries? Panel quantile regression approach," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 1153-1173, December.
    8. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    9. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    10. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2022. "Does Public Debt Granger-Cause Inflation in Tanzania? A Multivariate Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(1), pages 75-100.
    11. T. Saungweme & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Public Debt and Inflation Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Working Papers AESRI-2021-07, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Oct 2021.
    12. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Public Debt And Inflation Dynamics: Empirical Evidence From Zimbabwe," Working Papers AESRI05, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    13. Akua Agyeiwaa-Afrane & Kofi A. A-O. Agyei-Henaku & Charlotte Badu-Prah & Francis Srofenyoh & Ferguson K. Gidiglo & James K. A. Amezi & Justice G. Djokoto, 2023. "Drivers of Ghanaians’ approval of the electronic levy," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, January.

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