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Cem Çakmaklı
(Cem Cakmakli)

Personal Details

First Name:Cem
Middle Name:
Last Name:Cakmakli
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pca725
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]
Koç University, Rumelifeneri Yolu, 34450, Sarıyer Istanbul Turkey
+905333455071

Affiliation

(50%) İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi
Koç Üniversitesi

İstanbul, Turkey
http://case.ku.edu.tr/
RePEc:edi:cakoctr (more details at EDIRC)

(50%) Business School
Durham University

Durham, United Kingdom
http://www.dur.ac.uk/dubs/
RePEc:edi:bsduruk (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles Software Chapters

Working papers

  1. Cem Cakmakli & Verda Ozturk, 2021. "Economic Value of Modeling the Joint Distribution of Returns and Volatility: Leverage Timing," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2110, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  2. Muhammed A. Yildirim & Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," CID Working Papers 390, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  3. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed Ali Yildirim, 2021. "The Role of Obedience and the Rule of Law during the Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2103, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  4. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Gokhan Sahin Gunes, 2021. "How do exchange rates respond to political rhetoric by populist leaders?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2112, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  5. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2015, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  6. Cem Cakmakli & Yasin Simsek, 2020. "Bridging the COVID-19 Data and the Epidemiological Model using Time Varying Parameter SIRD Model," Papers 2007.02726, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  7. Sumru Altug & Fabrice Collard & Cem Çakmakli & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Özsöylev, 2020. "Ambiguous business cycles: a quantitative assessment," Post-Print hal-03039262, HAL.
  8. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, 2020. "Online Appendix to "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment"," Online Appendices 19-269, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  9. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed Ali Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2011, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  10. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 2020/133, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Cem Çakmaklı & Selva Demiralp & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 27191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  13. Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem & Demircan, Hamza, 2018. "Modeling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Nowcasting and Forecasting Recessions: A Unified Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 13171, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2018. "How Do Indirect Taxes on Tobacco Products Affect Inflation?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1811, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  15. Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation using Survey Expectations and Target Inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 10419, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.
  17. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1413, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  18. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  19. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-011/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  20. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models with Non-filtered Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-090/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  21. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Extended Phillips Curve Models with non-filtered Data," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1321, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  22. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1206, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  23. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.
  24. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  25. Cem Cakmakli & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-115/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  26. Cem CAKMAKLI & Oner GUNCAVDI, 2001. "The Link between Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: A Case Study: Turkey," Middle East and North Africa 330400014, EcoMod.

Articles

  1. Cem Çakmakli & Hamza Dem I˙rcani & Sumru Altug, 2021. "Modelling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Real‐Time Prediction of Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 663-685, June.
  2. Cem Çakmaklı, 2020. "Modeling the density of US yield curve using Bayesian semiparametric dynamic Nelson-Siegel model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 71-91, January.
  3. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, 2020. "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 220-237, October.
  4. Çakmaklı, Cem & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 650-668.
  5. Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem, 2016. "Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-153.
  6. Nalan Baştürk & Cem Çakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2014. "Posterior‐Predictive Evidence On Us Inflation Using Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models With Non‐Filtered Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1164-1182, November.
  7. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.

Software components

  1. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, 2020. "Code and data files for "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment"," Computer Codes 19-269, Review of Economic Dynamics.

Chapters

  1. Sumru Altug & Cem Çakmakli & Rüveyda Nur Gözen, 2019. "The Interaction of Real and Financial Markets in the Global Economy: What Role Does China Play?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sabri Boubaker & Duc Khuong Nguyen (ed.), HANDBOOK OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS Transformations, Dependence, and Risk Spillovers, chapter 20, pages 513-550, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Rise of Bayesian Econometrics
      by Dave Giles in Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog on 2014-11-20 03:57:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Cem Cakmakli & Yasin Simsek, 2021. "Bridging the COVID-19 Data and the Epidemiological Model using Time Varying Parameter SIRD Model," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2013, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Modelling
  2. Cem Çakmaklı & Selva Demiralp & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 27191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Emerging markets

Working papers

  1. Muhammed A. Yildirim & Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," CID Working Papers 390, Center for International Development at Harvard University.

    Cited by:

    1. Chudik, A. & Pesaran, M. H. & Rebucci, A., 2022. "Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2230, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Philip Clarke & Laurence Roope & Peter Loewen & Jean-François Bonnefon & Alessia Melegaro & Jorge Friedman & Mara Violato & Adrian Barnett & Raymond Duch, 2021. "Public opinion on global rollout of COVID-19 vaccines," Post-Print hal-03261784, HAL.
    3. Aslim, Erkmen Giray & Fu, Wei & Tekin, Erdal & You, Shijun, 2023. "From Syringes to Dishes: Improving Food Security through Vaccination," IZA Discussion Papers 16009, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Linus Nyiwul, 2021. "Epidemic Control and Resource Allocation: Approaches and Implications for the Management of COVID-19," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 9(2), pages 283-305, December.
    7. George A. Alessandria & Shafaat Y. Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Carter B. Mix & Kim J. Ruhl, 2023. "The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022," NBER Working Papers 30849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Yang Ye & Qingpeng Zhang & Xuan Wei & Zhidong Cao & Hsiang-Yu Yuan & Daniel Dajun Zeng, 2022. "Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 207-216, February.
    9. Jiang, Peng & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Fan, Yee Van & Fu, Xiuju & Tan, Raymond R. & You, Siming & Foley, Aoife M., 2021. "Energy, environmental, economic and social equity (4E) pressures of COVID-19 vaccination mismanagement: A global perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    10. Rebucci, Alessandro & Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2021. "COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing," CEPR Discussion Papers 15993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Ali K k & Erg n Y kseltan & Mustafa Hekimo lu & Esra Agca Aktunc & Ahmet Y cekaya & Ay e Bilge, 2022. "Forecasting Hourly Electricity Demand Under COVID-19 Restrictions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 73-85.
    12. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Juan Carluccio & Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Sebastian Stumpner, 2022. "From Macro to Micro: Large Exporters Coping with Common Shocks," Working papers 881, Banque de France.
    13. Fu, Yuting & Jin, Hanqing & Xiang, Haitao & Wang, Ning, 2022. "Optimal lockdown policy for vaccination during COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    14. L'aszl'o Czaller & GergH{o} T'oth & Bal'azs Lengyel, 2021. "Vaccine allocation to blue-collar workers," Papers 2104.04639, arXiv.org.
    15. Veronika Grimm & Franziska K. Lembcke & Milena Schwarz, 2021. "Impffortschritt in Deutschland und der Welt: Chancen und Risiken [Opportunities and Risks of Vaccination Progress]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(4), pages 266-275, April.
    16. Ricardo Hausmann & Ulrich Schetter & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2022. "On the Design of Effective Sanctions: The Case of Bans on Exports to Russia," CID Working Papers 417, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    17. Agarwal,Ruchir & Reed,Tristan, 2021. "How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9632, The World Bank.
    18. Laurence S. J. Roope & Adrian Barnett & Paolo Candio & Mara Violato & Raymond Duch & Philip M. Clarke, 2022. "Is There Broad-Based Support in High-Income Countries for COVID-19 Vaccine Donation? Evidence from Seven Countries," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 55-65, January.
    19. Chad P. Bown & Thomas J. Bollyky, 2022. "How COVID‐19 vaccine supply chains emerged in the midst of a pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 468-522, February.
    20. D. G. Webster & Semra A. Aytur & Mark Axelrod & Robyn S. Wilson & Joseph A. Hamm & Linda Sayed & Amber L. Pearson & Pedro Henrique C. Torres & Alero Akporiaye & Oran Young, 2022. "Learning from the Past: Pandemics and the Governance Treadmill," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.
    21. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

  2. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2015, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

    Cited by:

    1. Nebioğlu, Deniz & Soybilgen, Barış, 2023. "Inflation aversion in Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    2. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Tetik Metin & Yıldırım Mustafa Ozan, 2021. "Distortionary effects of economic crises on policy coordination in Turkey: Threshold GMM approach," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(3), pages 83-102, September.

  3. Cem Cakmakli & Yasin Simsek, 2020. "Bridging the COVID-19 Data and the Epidemiological Model using Time Varying Parameter SIRD Model," Papers 2007.02726, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Rebucci, Alessandro & Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2021. "COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing," CEPR Discussion Papers 15993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2104, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

  4. Sumru Altug & Fabrice Collard & Cem Çakmakli & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Özsöylev, 2020. "Ambiguous business cycles: a quantitative assessment," Post-Print hal-03039262, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2021. "Effects of Macro Uncertainty on Mean Expectation and Subjective Uncertainty: Evidence from Households and Professional Forecasters," CESifo Working Paper Series 9486, CESifo.
    2. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carbonari, Lorenzo & Maurici, Filippo, 2023. "Firm heterogeneity, financial frictions and ambiguity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Mao, Jie & Shen, Guanxiong & Yan, Jingzhou, 2023. "A continuous-time macro-finance model with Knightian uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.

  5. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, 2020. "Online Appendix to "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment"," Online Appendices 19-269, Review of Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2021. "Effects of Macro Uncertainty on Mean Expectation and Subjective Uncertainty: Evidence from Households and Professional Forecasters," CESifo Working Paper Series 9486, CESifo.
    2. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carbonari, Lorenzo & Maurici, Filippo, 2023. "Firm heterogeneity, financial frictions and ambiguity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Mao, Jie & Shen, Guanxiong & Yan, Jingzhou, 2023. "A continuous-time macro-finance model with Knightian uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.

  6. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed Ali Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2011, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

    Cited by:

    1. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

  7. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 2020/133, International Monetary Fund.

    Cited by:

    1. Buffie, Edward F. & Adam, Christopher & Zanna, Luis-Felipe & Kpodar, Kangni, 2023. "Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Chudik, A. & Pesaran, M. H. & Rebucci, A., 2022. "Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2230, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Tatiana Didier & Federico Huneeus & Mauricio Larrain & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2020. "Financing Firms in Hibernation during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2233, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Christopher Blackburn & Juan Moreno-Cruz, 2021. "Work Context and Industrial Composition Determine the Epidemiological Responses in a Multi-Group SIR Model," BEA Working Papers 0185, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    7. Enrique G. Mendoza & Eugenio Rojas & Linda L. Tesar & Jing Zhang, 2020. "A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality & the Output-Pandemia Tradeo," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-041, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Rebucci, Alessandro & Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2021. "COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing," CEPR Discussion Papers 15993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2015, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "COVID-19 and SME Failures," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Randy Kotti, 2021. "The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting," NBER Working Papers 29186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Enrique G. Mendoza & Eugenio I. Rojas & Linda L. Tesar & Jing Zhang, 2020. "A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality and the Output-Pandemia Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 28247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Ahmet Ekici & Forrest Watson, 2022. "A model of consumer life‐satisfaction amidst the COVID‐19 pandemic: Evidence and policy implications," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 158-179, March.
    14. Ablam Estel Apeti & Jean-Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "Did Fiscal Space Foster Covid-19's Fiscal Stimuli ?," Post-Print hal-03351634, HAL.
    15. Ruoyu Chen & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Satawat Wannapan, 2021. "The Perspective of Thailand Economy After the Effect of Coronavirus-19 Pandemics: Explication by Dynamic I-O Models and Agent-Based Simulations," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    16. Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    17. Sanjay Kumar Rout & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2022. "Sovereign Bond Market Shock Spillover Over Different Maturities: A Journey from Normal to Covid-19 Period," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 697-734, December.
    18. Abdullah Altun & Pinar Tat & Halit Yanikkaya, 2023. "The Role of Covid-19 Policy Responses on GVC Participation: The Turkish Experience," Working Papers 2023-01, Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics.
    19. Lazebnik, Teddy & Shami, Labib & Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky, Svetlana, 2023. "Intervention policy influence on the effect of epidemiological crisis on industry-level production through input–output networks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    20. Acedański, Jan, 2021. "Optimal lockdown policy during the election period," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 102-117.

  8. Cem Çakmaklı & Selva Demiralp & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 27191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Ibrahim Darbaz, 2021. "The Causal Linkage between Energy Price and Food Price," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-13, July.
    2. Gemici, Eray & Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Predictability of risk appetite in Turkey: Local versus global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’," NBER Working Papers 29293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    6. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed Ali Yildirim, 2021. "The Role of Obedience and the Rule of Law during the Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2103, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    7. Enrique G. Mendoza & Eugenio I. Rojas & Linda L. Tesar & Jing Zhang, 2020. "A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality and the Output-Pandemia Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 28247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2023. "COVID-19 Vaccination and Financial Frictions," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 216-242, March.
    9. Salha Ben Salem & Moez Labidi, 2024. "Financial friction and optimal monetary policy: analysis of DSGE model with financial friction and price sticky," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(7), pages 1-24, July.
    10. David J. Haw & Christian Morgenstern & Giovanni Forchini & Robert Johnson & Patrick Doohan & Peter C. Smith & Katharina D. Hauck, 2022. "Data needs for integrated economic-epidemiological models of pandemic mitigation policies," Papers 2209.01487, arXiv.org.
    11. Attar, M. Aykut & Tekin-Koru, Ayça, 2022. "Latent social distancing: Identification, causes and consequences," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    12. Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & César Gurrola Ríos & Francisco López Herrera, 2021. "Dependencia de los mercados de valores de Argentina, Brasil y México respecto del estadounidense: Covid19 y otras crisis financieras recientes," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-18, Julio - S.

  9. Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation using Survey Expectations and Target Inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 10419, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Nibbering, Didier & Paap, Richard & van der Wel, Michel, 2018. "What do professional forecasters actually predict?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 288-311.
    2. Faisal Rachman, 2016. "Is Inflation Target Announced by Bank Indonesia the Most Accurate Inflation Forecast?," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 62, pages 98-120, August.
    3. Carlos Medel, 2021. "Forecasting Brazilian Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Assessing the Predictive Role of Trading Partners," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 900, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2020. "“Spectral analysis of business and consumer survey data”," AQR Working Papers 2012002, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised May 2020.
    5. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
    6. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," AQR Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2018.
    7. Nyoni, Thabani & Nathaniel, Solomon Prince, 2018. "Modeling rates of inflation in Nigeria: an application of ARMA, ARIMA and GARCH models," MPRA Paper 91351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Duncan, Roberto & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2019. "New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1008-1031.
    9. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2015, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    10. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming," IREA Working Papers 201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    11. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2685-2706, November.
    12. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    13. Fabrizio Almeida Marodin & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: À Markov Switching DSGE Estimation for the Inflation Targeting Period," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 36-66, March.
    14. Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2020. "Economic forecasting with evolved confidence indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 576-585.
    15. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2021. "Frequency domain analysis and filtering of business and consumer survey expectations," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 166, pages 42-57.
    16. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Evolutionary Computation for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 833-849, February.
    17. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.
    18. Gilberto Boaretto & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2023. "Forecasting inflation using disaggregates and machine learning," Papers 2308.11173, arXiv.org.
    19. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Forecasting Nigerian Inflation using Model Averaging methods: Modelling Frameworks to Central Banks," MPRA Paper 88754, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.
    20. Xu, Kun & Cheng, Jian-hua & Xu, Wenli, 2016. "通胀及通胀预期冲击的动态特征分析 [Study on Dynamics of Inflation and Inflation Expectation Shocks in China]," MPRA Paper 71977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    22. Dibyendu Maiti & Naveen Kumar & Debajit Jha & Soumyadipta Sarkar, 2024. "Post-COVID Recovery and Long-Run Forecasting of Indian GDP with Factor-Augmented Error Correction Model (FECM)," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 1095-1120, March.
    23. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Papadamou, Stephanos & Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2020. "Modelling the dynamics of unconventional monetary policies’ impact on professionals’ forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

  10. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.

    Cited by:

    1. Thomas R. Dyckman, 2016. "Significance Testing: We Can Do Better," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(2), pages 319-342, June.
    2. Nalan Basturk & Stefano Grassi & Lennart Hoogerheide & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Parallelization Experience with Four Canonical Econometric Models using ParMitISEM," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-005/III, Tinbergen Institute.

  11. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.
    2. Glötzl, Florentin & Aigner, Ernest, 2015. "Pluralism in the Market of Science? A citation network analysis of economic research at universities in Vienna," Ecological Economic Papers 5, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.

  12. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-011/III, Tinbergen Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Mr. Serhat Solmaz, 2013. "Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area: Love at Second Sight?," IMF Working Papers 2013/192, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    3. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Paper 2013/20, Norges Bank.
    4. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.

  13. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models with Non-filtered Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-090/III, Tinbergen Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem, 2016. "Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-153.
    2. Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin & Vocalelli, Giorgio, 2023. "Global money supply and energy and non-energy commodity prices: A MS-TV-VAR approach," Working Papers 2023-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    3. Francesca Rondina, 2018. "Estimating Unobservable Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Nalan Basturk & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of US Growth using Basic Time Varying Parameter Models and Expectations Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-119/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Sep 2014.
    5. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," Papers 2006.14110, arXiv.org.
    6. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Paper 2013/20, Norges Bank.
    7. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Grant, Angelia L. & Chan, Joshua C.C., 2017. "Reconciling output gaps: Unobserved components model and Hodrick–Prescott filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 114-121.
    9. Yingying XU & Zhixin LIU & Jaime ORTIZ, 2018. "Actual and Expected Inflation in the U.S.: A Time-Frequency View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 42-62, December.
    10. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    11. Nalan Basturk & Stefano Grassi & Lennart Hoogerheide & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Parallelization Experience with Four Canonical Econometric Models using ParMitISEM," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-005/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Khalaf, Lynda, 2015. "Factor based identification-robust inference in IV regressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 10390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Khalaf, Lynda & Lin, Zhenjiang, 2021. "Projection-based inference with particle swarm optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    14. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2017. "A New Time‐Varying Parameter Autoregressive Model for U.S. Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 969-995, August.

  14. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Extended Phillips Curve Models with non-filtered Data," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1321, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

    Cited by:

    1. Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem, 2016. "Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-153.
    2. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Mr. Serhat Solmaz, 2013. "Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area: Love at Second Sight?," IMF Working Papers 2013/192, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.
    4. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    5. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Paper 2013/20, Norges Bank.
    6. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2017. "A New Time‐Varying Parameter Autoregressive Model for U.S. Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 969-995, August.

  15. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1206, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

    Cited by:

    1. Bertrand Candelon & Norbert Metiu & Stefan Straetmans, 2014. "Disentangling economic recessions and depressions," Working Papers 2014-328, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
    3. Cem Çakmakli & Hamza Dem I˙rcani & Sumru Altug, 2021. "Modelling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Real‐Time Prediction of Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 663-685, June.

  16. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.

    Cited by:

    1. Geert Mesters & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman, 2014. "A Dynamic Yield Curve Model with Stochastic Volatility and Non-Gaussian Interactions: An Empirical Study of Non-standard Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-071/III, Tinbergen Institute.

  17. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Investor herds and regime-switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 295-321.
    2. Carlo Di Giorgio, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization of CEECs with the Euro Area: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 284-300, March.
    3. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1206, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. Ritika Jaiswal & Rashmi Uchil, 2018. "An Analysis of Gold Futures as an Alternative Asset: Evidence from India," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 144-150.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ahmed Khalifa, 2013. "Do Global Shocks Drive Investor Herds in Oil-Rich Frontier Markets?," Working Papers 819, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2013.
    6. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," MPRA Paper 54452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Regional and global spillovers and diversification opportunities in the GCC equity sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 160-187.
    8. Vassilios Babalos & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nikolaos Philippas, 2014. "Revisiting Herding Behavior in REITs: A RegimeSwitching Approach," Working Papers 15-15, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    9. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-011/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Nalan Baştürk & Cem Çakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2014. "Posterior‐Predictive Evidence On Us Inflation Using Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models With Non‐Filtered Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1164-1182, November.
    11. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework," Working Papers 1726, Banco de España.
    12. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Extended Phillips Curve Models with non-filtered Data," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1321, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

  18. Cem Cakmakli & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-115/4, Tinbergen Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Exterkate & Patrick J.F. Groenen & Christiaan Heij & Dick van Dijk, 2013. "Nonlinear Forecasting With Many Predictors Using Kernel Ridge Regression," CREATES Research Papers 2013-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Gonçalves, Sílvia & McCracken, Michael W. & Perron, Benoit, 2017. "Tests of equal accuracy for nested models with estimated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 231-252.
    3. Thieu, Le Quyen, 2016. "Variance targeting estimation of the BEKK-X model," MPRA Paper 75572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Charlotte Christiansen & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "A Comprehensive Look at Financial Volatility Prediction by Economic Variables," CREATES Research Papers 2010-58, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Frédérique BEC & Songlin ZENG, 2013. "Do Stock Returns Rebound After Bear Markets? An Empirical Analysis From Five OECD Countries," THEMA Working Papers 2013-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Frédérique Bec & Annabelle de Gaye, 2019. "Le modèle autorégressif autorégressif à seuil avec effet rebond : Une application aux rendements boursiers français et américains ," Working Papers hal-02014663, HAL.
    7. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Macro determinants of U.S. stock market risk premia in bull and bear markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-520, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    8. Guidolin, Massimo & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Tortora, Andrea Donato, 2013. "Alternative econometric implementations of multi-factor models of the U.S. financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 87-111.

Articles

  1. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, 2020. "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 220-237, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Çakmaklı, Cem & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 650-668.

    Cited by:

    1. Döpke, Jörg & Müller, Karsten & Tegtmeier, Lars, 2018. "The economic value of business cycle forecasts for potential investors – Evidence from Germany," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 445-461.
    2. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Björn Tharann & Chardin Wese Simen, 2019. "Predicting the equity market with option-implied variables," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(10), pages 937-965, July.
    3. Gonçalves, Sílvia & McCracken, Michael W. & Perron, Benoit, 2017. "Tests of equal accuracy for nested models with estimated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 231-252.
    4. Cem Cakmakli & Verda Ozturk, 2021. "Economic Value of Modeling the Joint Distribution of Returns and Volatility: Leverage Timing," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2110, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & I. Ethem Güney & M. Yilmaz, 2020. "Forecasting local currency bond risk premia of emerging markets: The role of cross‐country macrofinancial linkages," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 966-985, September.
    6. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    7. Li, Zhenxiong & Yao, Xingzhi & Izzeldin, Marwan, 2023. "On the right jump tail inferred from the VIX market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Tharann, Björn & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2021. "Predictability in commodity markets: Evidence from more than a century," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    9. Massimo Guidolin & Erwin Hansen & Gabriel Cabrera, 2023. "Time-Varying Risk Aversion and International Stock Returns," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23203, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    10. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with a large set of predictors: Can LASSO select powerful predictors?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-117.
    11. Daniel Cunha Oliveira & Yutong Lu & Xi Lin & Mihai Cucuringu & Andre Fujita, 2024. "Causality-Inspired Models for Financial Time Series Forecasting," Papers 2408.09960, arXiv.org.
    12. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Massacci, Daniele & Soccorsi, Stefano, 2021. "Forecasting stock returns with large dimensional factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 252-269.
    13. Díaz, Juan D. & Hansen, Erwin & Cabrera, Gabriel, 2023. "Gold risk premium estimation with machine learning methods," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    14. Liu, Jingzhen & Kemp, Alexander, 2019. "Forecasting the sign of U.S. oil and gas industry stock index excess returns employing macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 672-686.
    15. Ma, Feng & Lu, Xinjie & Liu, Jia & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Macroeconomic attention and stock market return predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Massacci, Daniele & Kapetanios, George, 2024. "Forecasting in factor augmented regressions under structural change," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 62-76.
    17. Ahmad, Wasim & Sharma, Sumit Kumar, 2018. "Testing output gap and economic uncertainty as an explicator of stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 293-306.
    18. Jonathan A. Batten & Harald Kinateder & Niklas Wagner, 2022. "Beating the Average: Equity Premium Variations, Uncertainty, and Liquidity," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 58(3), pages 567-588, September.
    19. Souropanis, Ioannis & Vivian, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility with wavelet decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing & Wahab, M.I.M. & Zhang, Yaojie, 2018. "Forecasting the aggregate oil price volatility in a data-rich environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 320-332.

  3. Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem, 2016. "Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-153.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Nalan Baştürk & Cem Çakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2014. "Posterior‐Predictive Evidence On Us Inflation Using Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models With Non‐Filtered Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1164-1182, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
    See citations under working paper version above.

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NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 32 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (18) 2013-11-16 2014-04-11 2015-04-25 2016-02-29 2018-11-26 2019-05-06 2020-04-27 2020-05-11 2020-06-15 2020-06-15 2020-10-12 2020-10-26 2021-01-25 2021-03-22 2021-04-05 2021-05-03 2021-05-10 2021-08-16. Author is listed
  2. NEP-ECM: Econometrics (7) 2012-09-09 2013-11-16 2014-11-12 2018-11-26 2020-07-20 2020-10-26 2021-08-09. Author is listed
  3. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (7) 2010-12-04 2011-11-21 2012-02-27 2013-01-26 2013-11-16 2016-02-29 2019-05-06. Author is listed
  4. NEP-ARA: MENA - Middle East and North Africa (6) 2014-04-11 2016-02-29 2018-06-25 2019-05-06 2020-05-11 2020-06-15. Author is listed
  5. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (5) 2014-04-11 2015-04-25 2016-02-29 2020-05-11 2020-10-12. Author is listed
  6. NEP-ORE: Operations Research (5) 2019-05-06 2020-07-20 2020-08-10 2020-10-26 2021-08-09. Author is listed
  7. NEP-CWA: Central and Western Asia (4) 2014-04-11 2016-02-29 2020-05-11 2020-06-15
  8. NEP-INT: International Trade (4) 2021-02-15 2021-03-22 2021-05-10 2021-05-17
  9. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (4) 2014-04-11 2016-02-29 2018-06-25 2020-10-12
  10. NEP-CIS: Confederation of Independent States (3) 2020-07-20 2020-08-10 2020-09-07
  11. NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (3) 2018-11-26 2020-08-10 2020-10-26
  12. NEP-ISF: Islamic Finance (3) 2020-10-12 2021-08-09 2021-08-16
  13. NEP-SOG: Sociology of Economics (3) 2014-11-12 2015-04-25 2015-04-25
  14. NEP-DGE: Dynamic General Equilibrium (2) 2020-06-15 2021-04-05
  15. NEP-HIS: Business, Economic and Financial History (2) 2014-11-12 2015-04-25
  16. NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (2) 2020-06-15 2021-08-16
  17. NEP-UPT: Utility Models and Prospect Theory (2) 2020-06-15 2021-04-05
  18. NEP-FMK: Financial Markets (1) 2021-08-09
  19. NEP-GEN: Gender (1) 2020-05-11
  20. NEP-GER: German Papers (1) 2014-04-11
  21. NEP-HPE: History and Philosophy of Economics (1) 2015-04-25
  22. NEP-LAM: Central and South America (1) 2014-04-11
  23. NEP-RMG: Risk Management (1) 2021-08-09

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