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How Do Indirect Taxes on Tobacco Products Affect Inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • Cem Cakmakli

    (Department of Economics, Koç University)

  • Selva Demiralp

    (Department of Economics, Koç University)

  • Sevcan Yesiltas

    (Department of Economics, Koç University)

  • Muhammed A. Yildirim

    (Department of Economics, Koç University)

Abstract

This study examines the effects of price adjustments in the tobacco sector on inflation in Turkey. The findings show that the taxes on tobacco products increase inflation in the short-term. However, the effect is rather limited, a 16 basis points increase in inflation if the current 65.25% Special Consumption Tax (SCT) increases by 25 basis points. Factors that cause inflation in the long-run are cost and demand. The cost-driven impact of tobacco prices on inflation is rather limited due to the low weight of this product in the consumption basket. Nevertheless, the structure of the tax multiplier used in tobacco taxation increases cigarette prices in a non-linear fashion and, therefore, has the potential to disrupt inflationary expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2018. "How Do Indirect Taxes on Tobacco Products Affect Inflation?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1811, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1811
    as

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    File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1811.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oguz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Ozmen, 2015. "Firm Strategy, Consumer Behavior and Taxation in Turkish Tobacco Market," Working Papers 1518, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    4. Oguz Atuk & Cem Cebi & M. Utku Ozmen, 2011. "Tutun Urunlerinde Ozel Tuketim Vergisi Uygulamasi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1116, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2008. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence at the Monthly Frequency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 1-24, February.
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