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Policy Brief: Imbalances Will Continue To Rule Over The Global Economy

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  • JOERGEN OERSTROEM MOELLER

    (ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Singapore 119614, Singapore†Singapore Management University, 81 Victoria Street, Singapore 188065, Singapore‡Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen University, Howitzvej 60, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark)

Abstract

Global debt will keep growth subdued over the next decade. Falling work force will move labor intensive manufacturing out of China and into South Asia. Investment, not consumption, will be the main driver of growth, which primarily will take place in Asia and probably also Africa. New institutional frameworks such as AIIB emerge, but they will operate inside the existing global order. Falling albeit still tangible Chinese saving combined with fading interest for US treasury bonds will pose an awkward dilemma for US monetary policy. Under such circumstances current savings–investment balances will continue to rule the global economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Joergen Oerstroem Moeller, 2016. "Policy Brief: Imbalances Will Continue To Rule Over The Global Economy," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(05), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:61:y:2016:i:05:n:s0217590816710028
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590816710028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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