IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipt/termod/202109.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural change and productivity growth in the European Union: Past, present and future

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the interplay between structural change, interpreted as the secular process of sectoral transformation, and labour productivity growth in the EU in several new dimensions. First, based on the latest data, we document the size of the negative effect that structural change has exerted onto productivity growth over long time horizons. We provide a comparative analysis of these and present-day trends with respect to the US. Second, we develop a general equilibrium model calibrated to match these empirical observations to analyse the potential impact that projected structural change may have on future productivity growth. This model generates structural change through both price and income effects. Our main results indicate that, other things equal, this phenomenon is bound to have a greater dent on productivity growth in the future than it has had in the past. This is the case for both newer and older EU Member States, albeit with important nuances. Our findings suggest that policies should focus on the promotion of productivity-enhancing technological innovation, as well as on the furtherance of greater levels of competition, especially in the most sluggish service sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • DUERNECKER Georg & SANCHEZ MARTINEZ Miguel, 2021. "Structural change and productivity growth in the European Union: Past, present and future," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2021-09, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:termod:202109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC126447
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andres Kuusk & Karsten Staehr & Uku Varblane, 2017. "Sectoral change and labour productivity growth during boom, bust and recovery in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 21-43, February.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    3. John Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2020. "Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 38, pages 104-135, Spring.
    4. Inklaar Robert & Timmer Marcel P. & Ark Bart van, 2007. "Mind the Gap! International Comparisons of Productivity in Services and Goods Production," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 281-307, May.
    5. Thomas Niebel & Mary O'Mahony & Marianne Saam, 2017. "The Contribution of Intangible Assets to Sectoral Productivity Growth in the EU," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63, pages 49-67, February.
    6. Gordon, Robert J. & Sayed, Hassan, 2019. "The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown," CEPR Discussion Papers 13751, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kevin Genna & Christian Ghiglino & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2021. "Knowledge-Based Structural Change," Working Papers halshs-03164854, HAL.
    8. David M. Byrne & John G. Fernald & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2016. "Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 109-182.
    9. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo & Peter N. Gal, 2015. "Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public Policy: Micro Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Productivity Working Papers 2, OECD Publishing.
    10. Robert J. Gordon & Hassan Sayed, 2019. "The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown," NBER Working Papers 25703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Nordhaus William D, 2008. "Baumol's Diseases: A Macroeconomic Perspective," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-39, February.
    12. Sen, Ali, 2020. "Structural change within the services sector, Baumol's cost disease, and cross-country productivity differences," MPRA Paper 99614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Timmer,Marcel P. & Inklaar,Robert & O'Mahony,Mary & Ark,Bart van, 2013. "Economic Growth in Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107412446.
    14. Igna, Ioana A. & Rincon-Aznar, Ana & Venturini, Francesco, 2019. "Upstream regulation, factor demand and productivity: Cross-industry differences in OECD countries, 1975–2007," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    15. Tetsushi Murao, 2017. "Aggregate Productivity Growth Decomposition: an Overview," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 13(3), pages 269-286, November.
    16. Bart van Ark & Mary O'Mahoney & Marcel P. Timmer, 2008. "The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 25-44, Winter.
    17. Peter Bauer & Igor Fedotenkov & Aurelien Genty & Issam Hallak & Peter Harasztosi & David Martinez Turegano & David Nguyen & Nadir Preziosi & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Miguel Sanchez Martinez, 2020. "Productivity in Europe: Trends and drivers in a service-based economy," JRC Research Reports JRC119785, Joint Research Centre.
    18. Natalia Levenko & Kaspar Oja & Karsten Staehr, 2019. "Total factor productivity growth in Central and Eastern Europe before, during and after the global financial crisis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 137-160, March.
    19. Ajay Agrawal & Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb, 2019. "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number agra-1, March.
    20. Era Dabla-Norris & Si Guo & Vikram Haksar & Minsuk Kim & Kalpana Kochhar & Kevin Wiseman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The New Normal; A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/3, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Si Guo & Mr. V. Haksar & Minsuk Kim & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Kevin Wiseman & Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The New Normal: A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/003, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Bart van Ark & Kirsten Jäger, 2017. "Recent Trends in Europe's Output and Productivity Growth Performance at the Sector Level, 2002-2015," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 33, pages 8-23, Fall.
    23. Jochen Hartwig, 2011. "Testing The Baumol–Nordhaus Model With Eu Klems Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 57(3), pages 471-489, September.
    24. Iscan Talan, 2010. "How Much Can Engel's Law and Baumol's Disease Explain the Rise of Service Employment in the United States?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-43, September.
    25. Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer & Bart van Ark, 2008. "Market services productivity across Europe and the US [‘Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(53), pages 140-194.
    26. Duarte, Margarida, 2020. "Manufacturing consumption, relative prices, and productivity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    27. Matilde Mas & Robert Stehrer (ed.), 2012. "Industrial Productivity in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14369.
    28. Agrawal, Ajay & Gans, Joshua & Goldfarb, Avi (ed.), 2019. "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226613338, December.
    29. Buiatti, C. & Duarte, J. B. & Saenz, L. F., 2017. "Why is Europe Falling Behind? Structural Transformation and Services' Productivity Differences between Europe and the U.S," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1708, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    30. Jens Matthias Arnold & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta, 2008. "Regulation, Allocative Efficiency and Productivity in OECD Countries: Industry and Firm-Level Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 616, OECD Publishing.
    31. Amat Adarov & Robert Stehrer, 2019. "Tangible and Intangible Assets in the Growth Performance of the EU, Japan and the US," wiiw Research Reports 442, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    32. Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer & Bart Van Ark, 2007. "Mind the Gap! International Comparisons of Productivity in Services and Goods Production," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 281-307, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Bauer & Igor Fedotenkov & Aurelien Genty & Issam Hallak & Peter Harasztosi & David Martinez Turegano & David Nguyen & Nadir Preziosi & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Miguel Sanchez Martinez, 2020. "Productivity in Europe: Trends and drivers in a service-based economy," JRC Research Reports JRC119785, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Duernecker, Georg & Sanchez-Martinez, Miguel, 2023. "Structural change and productivity growth in Europe — Past, present and future," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Gordon, Robert J. & Sayed, Hassan, 2020. "Transatlantic Technologies: The Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. and European Productivity Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Robert J. Gordon & Hassan Sayed, 2020. "Transatlantic Technologies: The Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. and European Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 27425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Robert J. Gordon & Hassan Sayed, 2019. "The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown," NBER Working Papers 25703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Gordon, Robert J. & Sayed, Hassan, 2019. "The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown," CEPR Discussion Papers 13751, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Elstner, Steffen & Rujin, Svetlana, 2019. "The consequences of U.S. technology changes for productivity in advanced economies," Ruhr Economic Papers 796, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Sen, Ali, 2020. "Structural change within the services sector, Baumol's cost disease, and cross-country productivity differences," MPRA Paper 99614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Campos, Nauro F. & Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2020. "Close encounters of the European kind: Economic integration, sectoral heterogeneity and structural reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Izabela Mlynarzewska- Borowiec, 2021. "Direct and Indirect Impact of ICT on EU’s Productivity Growth," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 4), pages 278-287.
    12. Comin, Diego & Quintana Gonzalez, Javier & Schmitz, Tom & Trigari, Antonella, 2020. "Revisiting Productivity Dynamics in Europe: A New Measure of Utilization-Adjusted TFP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Roth, Felix & Sen, Ali & Rammer, Christian, 2021. "Intangible Capital and Firm-Level Productivity – Evidence from Germany," Hamburg Discussion Papers in International Economics 9, University of Hamburg, Department of Economics.
    14. Vu, Khuong & Hartley, Kris, 2022. "Sources of transport sector labor productivity performance in industrialized countries: Insights from a decomposition analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 204-218.
    15. MARSCHINSKI Robert & DE AMORES HERNANDEZ Antonio & AMOROSO Sara & BAUER Peter & CARDANI Roberta & CSEFALVAY Zoltan & GENTY Aurelien & GKOTSIS Petros & GREGORI Wildmer & GRASSANO Nicola & HERNANDEZ GUE, 2021. "EU competitiveness: recent trends, drivers, and links to economic policy: A Synthesis Report," JRC Research Reports JRC123232, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Jay Bhattacharya & Mikko Packalen, 2020. "Stagnation and Scientific Incentives," NBER Working Papers 26752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Carolina Hintzmann & Josep Lladós-Masllorens & Raul Ramos, 2021. "Intangible Assets and Labor Productivity Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-21, May.
    18. van Ark, Bart & de Vries, Klaas & Erumban, Abdul, 2021. "How To Not Miss A Productivity Revival Once Again," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 255, pages 9-24, February.
    19. Nicholas Oulton, 2016. "The Mystery of TFP," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 68-87, Fall.
    20. repec:gdk:wpaper:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Stefan Schweikl & Robert Obermaier, 2020. "Lessons from three decades of IT productivity research: towards a better understanding of IT-induced productivity effects," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 461-507, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change; Productivity growth; Economic growth; Baumol's cost disease; Service sector; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipt:termod:202109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publication Officer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipjrces.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.