IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/natres/v50y2026i1p139-156.html

Linking geopolitical risk, load capacity factor, income, labor, population, and trade on natural resources: Evidence from top oil‐producing countries

Author

Listed:
  • Sinan Erdogan
  • Mustafa Tevfik Kartal
  • Ugur Korkut Pata

Abstract

The global economy has been witnessing increasing geopolitical risk (GPR) in recent years. The rise in GPR has several consequences, and the impact of this situation on natural resource rent (NR) has not yet been analyzed for the major oil‐producing countries. Given this deficiency, this study analyzes the impact of GPR, gross domestic product, the labor force (LBR), load capacity factor, population density, and trade openness on the NR for the five major oil‐producing countries (namely, Canada, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States of America). To this end, the study analyzes data for the period 1995/Q1‐2021/Q4 by using a cross‐sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach. The results demonstrate that (i) an increase in GPR and load capacity factor declines the NR; (ii) an increase in gross domestic product stimulates the NR; and (iii) a rise in population density, labor force, and trade openness has a stimulating impact on the NR. Overall, the research shows that all variables substantially impact the NR. Based on the results, various policy options are discussed, such as assessing geopolitical tensions as leverage to sustainably regulate the natural resource market and growth to prevent negative impact from managing the NR effectively for the five major oil‐producing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinan Erdogan & Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Ugur Korkut Pata, 2026. "Linking geopolitical risk, load capacity factor, income, labor, population, and trade on natural resources: Evidence from top oil‐producing countries," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 139-156, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:50:y:2026:i:1:p:139-156
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-8947.12565
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.12565
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1477-8947.12565?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Macartan Humphreys, 2005. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 508-537, August.
    2. Frey, Daniel & Frey, Miriam & Wieslhuber, Carmen, 2013. "Do natural resources define convergence clubs? Empirical evidence from the Kazakh regions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 404-414.
    3. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Alola, Andrew Adewale & Erdogan, Sinan & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik, 2023. "The influence of income, economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and urbanization on renewable energy investments in G7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of man Ullah, volume 36, pages 85-135, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Zhou, Bingjun & Huang, Yan & Gao, Ke & Luo, Chunyang, 2024. "How geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty impact coal, natural gas, and oil rent? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Ugur Korkut Pata & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2024. "A comparison of CO2 emissions, load capacity factor, and ecological footprint for Thailand’s environmental sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 2203-2223, January.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
    9. Matsen, Egil & Torvik, Ragnar, 2005. "Optimal Dutch disease," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 494-515, December.
    10. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    11. Chelghoum, Amirouche & Boumimez, Fayçal & Alsamara, Mouyad, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the demand for money in Algeria," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-11.
    12. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Fuhao, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the sustainable utilization of natural resources: Evidence from developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    13. Zhang, Shaohe & Shinwari, Riazullah & Zhao, Shikuan & Dagestani, Abd Alwahed, 2023. "Energy transition, geopolitical risk, and natural resources extraction: A novel perspective of energy transition and resources extraction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2021. "Natural resource rents and economic growth in the top resource-abundant countries: A PMG estimation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair, 2023. "Investigating the impact of remittance outflows and oil price on economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Zhang, Yi & Zhang, Leilei & Yu, Hang & Tu, Yanhong, 2023. "Does Geopolitical risk drive natural resources extraction globally? A Case of Global," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Ugur Korkut Pata, 2021. "Do renewable energy and health expenditures improve load capacity factor in the USA and Japan? A new approach to environmental issues," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(9), pages 1427-1439, December.
    18. L. Vanessa Smith & Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2004. "More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 147-170.
    19. Destek, Mehmet Akif & Hossain, Mohammad Razib & Aydın, Sercan & Shakib, Mohammed & Destek, Gamze, 2023. "Investigating the role of economic complexity in evading the resource curse," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    20. Lei, Wei & Yang, Jiaxin, 2022. "Does economic, political, and financial risk cause volatility in natural resources? Comparative study of China and Brazil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    21. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    22. Jahanger, Atif & Usman, Muhammad & Murshed, Muntasir & Mahmood, Haider & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2022. "The linkages between natural resources, human capital, globalization, economic growth, financial development, and ecological footprint: The moderating role of technological innovations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    23. Erdogan, Sinan, 2024. "On the impact of natural resources on environmental sustainability in African countries: A comparative approach based on the EKC and LCC hypotheses," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    24. Dogan, Eyup & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Luni, Tania, 2021. "Analyzing the impacts of geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty on natural resources rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    25. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho & Park, Donghyun, 2016. "Trade openness and environmental quality: International evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 45-55.
    26. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    27. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    28. Satti, Saqlain Latif & Farooq, Abdul & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "Empirical evidence on the resource curse hypothesis in oil abundant economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-429.
    29. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Szulczyk, Kenneth R. & Zahra, Samia & Mukherjee, Tanusree Chakravarty, 2023. "Innovation dynamics in the natural resource curse hypothesis: A new perspective from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    30. Adabor, Opoku, 2023. "The effect of financial development on natural gas resource rent in Ghana," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    31. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    32. Chau, Ka Yin & Moslehpour, Massoud & Tu, Yu-Te & Tai, Nguyen Tan & Tien, Nguyen Hoang & Huy, Pham Quang, 2022. "Exploring the impact of green energy and consumption on the sustainability of natural resources: Empirical evidence from G7 countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1241-1249.
    33. Olanipekun, Ifedolapo Olabisi & Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2020. "Crude oil production in the Persian Gulf amidst geopolitical risk, cost of damage and resources rents: Is there asymmetric inference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    34. Bourcet, Clémence, 2020. "Empirical determinants of renewable energy deployment: A systematic literature review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    35. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    36. Li, ChangZheng & Razzaq, Asif & Ozturk, Ilhan & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "Natural resources, financial technologies, and digitalization: The role of institutional quality and human capital in selected OECD economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    37. Hussain, Jamal & Khan, Anwar & Zhou, Kui, 2020. "The impact of natural resource depletion on energy use and CO2 emission in Belt & Road Initiative countries: A cross-country analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    38. Sinan Erdogan, 2024. "Linking natural resources and environmental sustainability: A panel data approach based on the load capacity curve hypothesis," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 3182-3194, August.
    39. Huang, Lihua & Zhao, Wei, 2022. "The impact of green trade and green growth on natural resources," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    40. Ajide, Kazeem Bello & Ibrahim, Ridwan Lanre & Mohammed, Abubakar & Saleh Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz, 2023. "Infectious diseases and health outcomes’ implications of natural resource curse in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    41. Qin, Zhaohui & Pan, Yuchen & Peng, Pin & Chen, Hailin & Mazheti, Winnie Kudzai, 2023. "Impact of industrial development and machinery and transport equipment on natural resources in South Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    42. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    43. Fang, Ming & Chang, Chiu-Lan, 2023. "The impact of oil and natural gas trading and globalization on natural resources management in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erdogan, Sinan & Pata, Ugur Korkut & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik, 2024. "The effectiveness of geopolitical risk, load capacity factor, and urbanization on natural resource rent: Evidence from top ten oil supplier countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    2. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Fikru, Mahelet G., 2025. "The dynamic nexus between economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and natural resource rents of ASEAN-5 countries: Insights from the novel Fourier augmented ARDL method (FAARDL)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Destek, Gamze & Hossain, Mohammad Razib & Aydın, Sercan & Destek, Mehmet Akif, 2023. "Can the resource curse be reversed through financialization, human capital, and institutional quality? Evidence from Sustainable Development Index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    4. Destek, Mehmet Akif & Hossain, Mohammad Razib & Manga, Müge & Destek, Gamze, 2024. "Can digital government reduce the resource dependency? Evidence from method of moments quantile technique," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    5. Musbau Omotola Kadir & Abraham Deka & Mehdi Seraj & Huseyin Ozdeser, 2025. "Capitalizing on natural resources rent and renewable energy in enhancing economic growth—New evidence with MMQR method," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 3421-3441, November.
    6. Zhang, Yueman & Danish, & Khan, Salah UD Din, 2023. "The role of energy poverty in the linkage between natural resources and economic performance: Resource curse or resource blessing?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    7. Riti, Joshua Sunday & Shu, Yang & Riti, Miriam-Kamah J., 2022. "Geopolitical risk and environmental degradation in BRICS: Aggregation bias and policy inference," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    8. Yan, Han, 2024. "Financial development, violence, and resource curse: How mineral resources are contributing towards growth of resource-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Sohag, Kazi & Kalina, Irina & Samargandi, Nahla, 2024. "Oil market cyclical shocks and fiscal stance in OPEC+," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    10. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Fuhao, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the sustainable utilization of natural resources: Evidence from developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    11. Liang, Huijun & Shi, Changkuan & Abid, Nabila & Yu, Yanliang, 2023. "Are digitalization and human development discarding the resource curse in emerging economies?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    12. Chandan Sharma & Debdatta Pal, 2021. "Revisiting resource curse puzzle: new evidence from heterogeneous panel analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(8), pages 897-912, February.
    13. Joseph David, 2024. "The role of corruption in the oil price–growth relationship: Insights from oil-rich economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1-32, December.
    14. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2025. "Does economic complexity provide antidotal pathways to evade the resource curse syndrome? A novel role for institutions," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 3118-3142, April.
    15. Eibinger, Tobias & Deixelberger, Beate & Manner, Hans, 2024. "Panel data in environmental economics: Econometric issues and applications to IPAT models," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Shang, Yunfeng & Razzaq, Asif & Chupradit, Supat & Binh An, Nguyen & Abdul-Samad, Zulkiflee, 2022. "The role of renewable energy consumption and health expenditures in improving load capacity factor in ASEAN countries: Exploring new paradigm using advance panel models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 715-722.
    17. Zeeshan Arshad & Margarita Robaina & Anabela Botelho, 2020. "Renewable and Non-renewable Energy, Economic Growth and Natural Resources Impact on Environmental Quality: Empirical Evidence from South and Southeast Asian Countries with CS-ARDL Modeling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 368-383.
    18. Wang, Chenguang & Qiao, Cuixia & Ahmed, Rahil Irfan & Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2021. "Institutional Quality, Bank Finance and Technological Innovation: A way forward for Fourth Industrial Revolution in BRICS Economies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    19. Bin Amin, Sakib & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Khan, Farhan & Manal Rahman, Faria, 2024. "Does technology have a lead or lag role in economic growth? The case of selected resource-rich and resource-scarce countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    20. Li, Xinqiang & Wang, Cheng, 2024. "Clean Energy's influence on the mineral resource market in the ASEAN region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:50:y:2026:i:1:p:139-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1477-8947 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.