Crowd‐Out or Affordability? The Lifeline Expansion's Effect on Wireless Service Spending

Public subsidization of private goods often leads to crowd‐out, reducing private spending. This effect is intended for a policy such as the 2008 Lifeline phone subsidy expansion, which aimed to increase affordable access to services. I examine the effects of this policy on households’ self‐reported wireless phone service spending in the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Using state‐level variation in policy implementation and triple‐differences event study methods, I estimate that the expansion reduced households’ wireless service spending by more than 100 percent of subsidy payments. I document that the expansion led to a separate, competitive market for providers catering to low‐income households. Consequently, higher‐quality subsidized services crowded out lower‐quality unsubsidized options, saving households more than an equivalent cash transfer. This highlights how market segmentation and competition can magnify a targeted subsidy's impact.