IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v25y2016i10p1268-1290.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying Demand Responses to Illegal Drug Supply Interdictions

Author

Listed:
  • Scott Cunningham
  • Keith Finlay

Abstract

Successful supply‐side interdictions into illegal drug markets are predicated on the responsiveness of drug prices to enforcement and the price elasticity of demand for addictive drugs. We present causal estimates that targeted interventions aimed at methamphetamine input markets (‘precursor control’) can temporarily increase retail street prices, but methamphetamine consumption is weakly responsive to higher drug prices. After the supply interventions, purity‐adjusted prices increased then quickly returned to pre‐treatment levels within 6–12 months, demonstrating the short‐term effects of precursor control. The price elasticity of methamphetamine demand is −0.13 to −0.21 for self‐admitted drug treatment admissions and between −0.24 and −0.28 for hospital inpatient admissions. We find some evidence of a positive cross‐price effect for cocaine, but we do not find robust evidence that increases in methamphetamine prices increased heroin, alcohol, or marijuana drug use. This study can inform policy discussions regarding other synthesized drugs, including illicit use of pharmaceuticals. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Cunningham & Keith Finlay, 2016. "Identifying Demand Responses to Illegal Drug Supply Interdictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(10), pages 1268-1290, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:25:y:2016:i:10:p:1268-1290
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.3213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3213
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.3213?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Michael Grossman & Frank J. Chaloupka & Patrick M. O'Malley & Lloyd D. Johnston & Matthew C. Farrelly, 2001. "Marijuana and Youth," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 271-326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • R. L. Pacula & M. Grossman & F. J. Chaloupka & P. M. O'Malley & Lloyd D. Johnston & Matthew C. Farrelly, 2000. "Marijuana and Youth," NBER Working Papers 7703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Frank J. Chaloupka & Michael Grossman & Warren K. Bickel & Henry Saffer, 1999. "The Economic Analysis of Substance Use and Abuse: An Integration of Econometric and Behavioral Economic Research," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number chal99-1, June.
    3. Liu, Jin-Long & Liu, Jin-Tan & Hammitt, James K. & Chou, Shin-Yi, 1999. "The price elasticity of opium in Taiwan, 1914-1942," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 795-810, December.
    4. Dave, Dhaval, 2006. "The effects of cocaine and heroin price on drug-related emergency department visits," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 311-333, March.
    5. Saffer, Henry & Chaloupka, Frank, 1999. "The Demand for Illicit Drugs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(3), pages 401-411, July.
    6. James Nonnemaker & Mark Engelen & Daniel Shive, 2011. "Are methamphetamine precursor control laws effective tools to fight the methamphetamine epidemic?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 519-531, May.
    7. Jeremy Arkes & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Susan M. Paddock & Jonathan P. Caulkins & Peter Reuter, 2008. "Why the DEA STRIDE Data are Still Useful for Understanding Drug Markets," NBER Working Papers 14224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Warner, Kenneth E., 2000. "The economics of smoking," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 1539-1627, Elsevier.
    9. Anne Line Bretteville-Jensen & Matthew Sutton, 1996. "Under the influence of the market: an applied study of illicitly selling and consuming heroin," Working Papers 147chedp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    10. Carlos Dobkin & Nancy Nicosia, 2009. "The War on Drugs: Methamphetamine, Public Health, and Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 324-349, March.
    11. Yuan, Yuehong & Caulkins, Jonathan P., 1998. "The Effect of Variation in High-level Domestic Drug Enforcement on Variation in Drug Prices," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 265-276, December.
    12. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Grossman, Michael & Bickel, Warren K. & Saffer, Henry (ed.), 1999. "The Economic Analysis of Substance Use and Abuse," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226100470.
    13. Sandra L. Decker & Amy Ellen Schwartz, 2000. "Cigarettes and Alcohol: Substitutes or Complements?," NBER Working Papers 7535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Cawley, John & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2011. "The Economics of Risky Health Behaviors," Handbook of Health Economics, in: Mark V. Pauly & Thomas G. Mcguire & Pedro P. Barros (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 95-199, Elsevier.
    15. Cook, Philip J. & Moore, Michael J., 1999. "Alcohol," Working Papers 156, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    16. Desimone, Jeff, 2001. "The Effect of Cocaine Prices on Crime," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 627-643, October.
    17. Anderson, D. Mark, 2010. "Does information matter? The effect of the Meth Project on meth use among youths," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 732-742, September.
    18. Caulkins Jonathan P & Reuter Peter & Taylor Lowell J, 2006. "Can Supply Restrictions Lower Price? Violence, Drug Dealing and Positional Advantage," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, January.
    19. Dave, Dhaval, 2008. "Illicit drug use among arrestees, prices and policy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 694-714, March.
    20. Dobkin, Carlos & Nicosia, Nancy & Weinberg, Matthew, 2014. "Are supply-side drug control efforts effective? Evaluating OTC regulations targeting methamphetamine precursors," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 48-61.
    21. Caulkins, J.P. & Schoeff, D., 2001. "Drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 91(9), pages 1446-1448.
    22. Scott Cunningham & Keith Finlay, 2013. "Parental Substance Use And Foster Care: Evidence From Two Methamphetamine Supply Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 764-782, January.
    23. Warren K. Bickel & Gregory J. Madden, 1999. "The Behavioral Economics of Smoking," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Analysis of Substance Use and Abuse: An Integration of Econometric and Behavioral Economic Research, pages 31-74, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Frank J. Chaloupka & Michael Grossman & Warren K. Bickel & Henry Saffer, 1999. "Introduction to "The Economic Analysis of Substance Use and Abuse: An Integration of Econometrics and Behavioral Economic Research"," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Analysis of Substance Use and Abuse: An Integration of Econometric and Behavioral Economic Research, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Mark V. Pauly & Thomas G. Mcguire & Pedro P. Barros (ed.), 2011. "Handbook of Health Economics," Handbook of Health Economics, Elsevier, volume 2, number 2, 00.
    26. Kuziemko, Ilyana & Levitt, Steven D., 2004. "An empirical analysis of imprisoning drug offenders," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 2043-2066, August.
    27. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Michael Grossman, 2006. "The Market for Illegal Goods: The Case of Drugs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(1), pages 38-60, February.
    28. Jonathan Gruber, 2001. "Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub01-1, June.
    29. A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), 2000. "Handbook of Health Economics," Handbook of Health Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, 00.
    30. Robert L. Ohsfeldt & Raymond G. Boyle & Eli I. Capilouto, 1999. "Tobacco Taxes, Smoking Restrictions, and Tobacco Use," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Analysis of Substance Use and Abuse: An Integration of Econometric and Behavioral Economic Research, pages 15-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. van Ours, Jan C, 1995. "The Price Elasticity of Hard Drugs: The Case of Opium in the Dutch East Indies, 1923-1938," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 261-279, April.
    32. Rucker Johnson & Steven Raphael, 2012. "How Much Crime Reduction Does the Marginal Prisoner Buy?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 275-310.
    33. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Are illegal drugs price elastic?
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-04-17 19:03:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marina Della Giusta & Maria Laura Di Tommaso & Sarah Jewell & Francesca Bettio, 2021. "Quashing demand or changing clients? Evidence of criminalization of sex work in the United Kingdom," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 527-544, October.
    2. Diego Zambiasi, 2020. "Drugs on the Web, Crime in the Streets - The Impact of Dark Web Marketplaces on Street Crime," Working Papers 202025, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Abby Alpert & David Powell & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, 2018. "Supply-Side Drug Policy in the Presence of Substitutes: Evidence from the Introduction of Abuse-Deterrent Opioids," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 1-35, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Craig A. Gallet, 2014. "Can Price Get The Monkey Off Our Back? A Meta‐Analysis Of Illicit Drug Demand," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 55-68, January.
    2. Jofre-Bonet, Mireia & Petry, Nancy M., 2008. "Trading apples for oranges?: Results of an experiment on the effects of Heroin and Cocaine price changes on addicts' polydrug use," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 281-311, May.
    3. Dave, Dhaval, 2006. "The effects of cocaine and heroin price on drug-related emergency department visits," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 311-333, March.
    4. Dhaval Dave, 2004. "Illicit Drug Use Among Arrestees and Drug Prices," NBER Working Papers 10648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael Grossman, 2004. "Individual Behaviors and Substance Use: The Role of Price," NBER Working Papers 10948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Carlos Casacuberta & Mariana Gerstenblüth & Patricia Triunfo, 2012. "Aportes del análisis económico al estudio de las drogas," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0112, Department of Economics - dECON.
    7. Beth A. Freeborn, 2009. "Arrest Avoidance: Law Enforcement and the Price of Cocaine," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 19-40, February.
    8. D. Mark Anderson & Benjamin Hansen & Daniel I. Rees, 2015. "Medical Marijuana Laws and Teen Marijuana Use," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 495-528.
    9. Kenneth Clements & Yihui Lan & Xueyan Zhao, 2010. "The demand for marijuana, tobacco and alcohol: inter-commodity interactions with uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 203-239, August.
    10. Olmstead, Todd A. & Alessi, Sheila M. & Kline, Brendan & Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo & Petry, Nancy M., 2015. "The price elasticity of demand for heroin: Matched longitudinal and experimental evidence," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 59-71.
    11. Kuziemko, Ilyana & Levitt, Steven D., 2004. "An empirical analysis of imprisoning drug offenders," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 2043-2066, August.
    12. Markowitz, Sara, 2005. "Alcohol, Drugs and Violent Crime," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 20-44, March.
    13. Skokov, R. Yu. & Brizhak, O. V., 2020. "Consumption of addictive goods in Russian regions and its impact on the quality of human capital," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 6(1), pages 50-60.
    14. Perry Singleton, 2008. "Public Sentiment and Tobacco Control Policy," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 106, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    15. Lim, King Yoong & Morris, Diego, 2020. "The economics of the illicit drugs-for-guns trade and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 218-232.
    16. Sara Markowitz, 2000. "An Economic Analysis of Alcohol, Drugs, and Violent Crime in the National Crime Victimization Survey," NBER Working Papers 7982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Edward M. Shepard & Paul R. Blackely, 2010. "Economics of Crime and Drugs: Prohibition and Public Policies for Illicit Drug Control," Chapters, in: Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Anne Bretteville-Jensen, 2006. "Drug Demand – Initiation, Continuation and Quitting," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 491-516, December.
    19. Dhaval Dave & Henry Saffer, 2007. "Risk Tolerance and Alcohol Demand Among Adults and Older Adults," NBER Working Papers 13482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Manolis Galenianos & Alessandro Gavazza, 2017. "A Structural Model of the Retail Market for Illicit Drugs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 858-896, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:25:y:2016:i:10:p:1268-1290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.