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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data

Author

Listed:
  • Janine Aron
  • Kenneth Creamer
  • John Muellbauer
  • Neil Rankin

Abstract

A sizeable literature examines exchange rate pass-through to disaggregated import prices, but few micro-studies focus on consumer prices. This article explores exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in South Africa, for 2002-2007, using a unique data set of highly disaggregated data at the product and outlet level. The empirical approach allows pass-through to be calculated over various horizons for different goods and services. The heterogeneity of pass-through for food sub-components is considerable. Switches between import and export parity pricing of maize are found significant for five out of ten food sub-components. Using actual weights from the CPI basket, overall pass-through to the almost 63 per cent of the CPI covered is about 30 per cent after two years, and higher for food.

Suggested Citation

  • Janine Aron & Kenneth Creamer & John Muellbauer & Neil Rankin, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 165-185, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:50:y:2014:i:1:p:165-185
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2013.847178
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:hrv:faseco:30703874 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    3. David C. Parsley, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in South Africa: Panel Evidence from Individual Goods and Services," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 832-846, January.
    4. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Michael Ehrmann & Jordi Galí & Andrew Levin & Frank Smets, 2006. "New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modeling," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 562-574, 04-05.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    6. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 304-336, March.
    7. Janine Aron & Greg Farrell & John Muellbauer & Peter Sinclair, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices, and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 144-164, January.
    8. Nakamura, Alice O. & Nakamura, Emi & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2011. "Price dynamics, retail chains and inflation measurement," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 47-55, March.
    9. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics and Trade Openness," CEPR Discussion Papers 6346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Creamer, Kenneth & Rankin, Neil A., 2008. "Price setting in South Africa 2001-2007 - stylised facts using consumer price micro data," MPRA Paper 16905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Janine Aron & Ronald Macdonald & John Muellbauer, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual, Methodological and Policy Issues, and Selected Empirical Findings," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 101-143, January.
    2. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John & Sebudde, Rachel, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. repec:ris:betajl:0015 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:rbp:esteco:ree-33-02 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other

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