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Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices, and Monetary Policy in South Africa

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  • Janine Aron
  • Greg Farrell
  • John Muellbauer
  • Peter Sinclair

Abstract

Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This article examines exchange rate pass-through to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980-2009. Short-horizon pass-through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems (Johansen) models, controlling for both domestic and foreign costs. Average pass-through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months, and in the long-run, from the Johansen analysis including feedback effects, is about 55 per cent. There is evidence of slower pass-through under inflation targeting; pass-through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry, with greater pass-through occurring for small appreciations.

Suggested Citation

  • Janine Aron & Greg Farrell & John Muellbauer & Peter Sinclair, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices, and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 144-164, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:50:y:2014:i:1:p:144-164
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2013.847179
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Isaacs, Gilad, 2014. "The myth of “neutrality” and the rhetoric of “stability”: macroeconomic policy in democratic South Africa," MPRA Paper 54426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kabundi, Alain & Mlachila, Montfort, 2019. "The role of monetary policy credibility in explaining the decline in exchange rate pass-through in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 173-185.
    3. Renzo Alvarez & Amin Shoja & Syed Uddin & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2019. "Daily exchange rate pass-through into micro prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 440-445, March.
    4. Janine Aron & Ronald Macdonald & John Muellbauer, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual, Methodological and Policy Issues, and Selected Empirical Findings," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 101-143, January.
    5. Sinyakov, A. & Chernyadyev, D. & Sapova, A., 2019. "Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect on Producer Prices of Final Products Based on Micro-Data of Russian Companies," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 128-157.
    6. Janine Aron & Kenneth Creamer & John Muellbauer & Neil Rankin, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 165-185, January.
    7. Edwards Lawrence & Hlatshwayo Ayanda, 2020. "Exchange rates and firm export performance in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp2020-1, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Rebeca Jiménez‐Rodríguez & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2020. "BRICS: How important is the exchange rate pass‐through?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 781-793, March.
    9. Alain Kabundi & Asi Mbelu, 2018. "Has the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through changed in South Africa?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 339-360, September.
    10. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    11. repec:kqi:journl:2017-1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) & Rey, Aleksey (Рей, Алексей) & Radchenko, Darya (Радченко, Дарья), 2018. "Investigation of the Relationship between the Intensity of International Trade and the Volatility of Paired Exchange Rates of the Russian Federation and its Trading Partners [Исследование Взаимосвя," Working Papers 061823, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    13. Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Lan, Hao, 2020. "Commodity price pass-through and inflation regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Christopher Loewald & David Faulkner & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Working Paper No 12 of 2020 WP2012 Time consistency and economic growth a case study of south african macroeconomic policy," Working Papers 10421, South African Reserve Bank.
    15. Adekunle, Wasiu & Tiamiyu, Ajao, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Nigeria: An asymmetric approach," MPRA Paper 88797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Ojonugwa Usman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Testing the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate and Oil Price Pass-Through in BRICS Countries: Does the state of the economy matter?," Working Papers 15-49, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    17. Dambar Uprety, 2017. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in Nepal," Journal of Development Innovations, KarmaQuest Internatioinal, vol. 1(1), pages 114-134, February.
    18. Franz Ruch & Neil Rankin & Stan du Plessis, 2016. "Working Paper WP1606 Decomposing inflation using micropricelevel data South Africas pricing dynamics," Working Papers 7353, South African Reserve Bank.
    19. Lawrence Edwards & Ayanda Hlatshwayo, 2020. "Exchange rates and firm export performance in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-1, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Mehmet Balcilar & Ojonugwa Usman & Esther Abdul Agbede, 2019. "Revisiting the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through to Inflation in Africa’s Two Largest Economies: Nigeria and South Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(2), pages 245-257, June.
    21. Michael Debabrata Patra & Joice John, 2018. "Non-Linear, Asymmetric and TimeVarying Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Recent Evidence from India," Working Papers id:12700, eSocialSciences.
    22. Alain Kabundi & Asi Mbelu, 2016. "Working Paper WP1610 Has the Exchange Rate PassThrough changed in South Africa," Working Papers 7556, South African Reserve Bank.
    23. Прокопьев М.Г., 2016. "Анализ Влияния Цен На Импортные Товары На Цены Внутреннего Рынка: Методические Аспекты," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 52(1), pages 20-27, январь.

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