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Supply chain disruptions: firm-level evidence from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

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  • Lucas Zimmer

    (INSEEC Grande Ecole
    University of Bordeaux)

Abstract

In this article, we employed firm-level data from France and a difference-in-differences approach to examine how input shortages propagate through global value chains, using the Tohoku earthquake as a natural experiment. Our findings reveal an 8% relative decrease in imports for French firms sourcing inputs from Japan, with more substantial declines for those highly reliant on Japanese suppliers. This is coupled with a 12.8% relative increase in imports from China for these exposed firms. Additionally, we discover that this transition is primarily driven by the top 5% of large firms and is prominently observed within the automotive sector. Regarding the transmission of input shortages through the global supply chain, we find that this shock only affects the exports of firms with the lowest levels of inventory, exhibiting variations across sectors and a time-dependent pattern. Surprisingly, these affected firms have not adjusted their inventory strategies from just-in-time practices to safety stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Zimmer, 2025. "Supply chain disruptions: firm-level evidence from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(3), pages 965-995, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:161:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10290-024-00580-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-024-00580-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    2. Koenig, Pamina & Poncet, Sandra, 2022. "The effects of the Rana Plaza collapse on the sourcing choices of French importers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
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    4. Carlo Piccardi & Lucia Tajoli & Riccardo Vitali, 2024. "Patterns of variability in the structure of global value chains: a network analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 1009-1036, August.
    5. Raphael Lafrogne-Joussier & Julien Martin & Isabelle Mejean, 2023. "Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 170-215, March.
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    12. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2019. "Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 841-847, September.
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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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