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The International Propagation of Economic Downturns Through Multinational Companies: The Real Economy Channel

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Bena
  • Serdar Dinc
  • Isil Erel

Abstract

We study how non-financial multinational companies propagate economic declines from their subsidiaries located in countries experiencing an economic downturn to subsidiaries in countries not experiencing one. We find that investment is 18% lower in subsidiaries of these parents relative to the same-industry, same-country subsidiaries of parents that are headquartered in the same parent country but do not have a subsidiary in a country experiencing an economic downturn. The employment growth rate in the affected subsidiaries is zero or negative while it is 1.4% in the subsidiaries of unaffected parents. The aggregate industry-level sales and employment are also negatively impacted in the countries of the affected subsidiaries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Bena & Serdar Dinc & Isil Erel, 2020. "The International Propagation of Economic Downturns Through Multinational Companies: The Real Economy Channel," NBER Working Papers 27873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27873
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    Cited by:

    1. Wen, Chufu & Wen, Fenghua & Lin, Diyue & Zhao, Lili, 2024. "Multinational corporations and share pledging of the controlling shareholder," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    2. Dai, Yanke & Li, Baoxin & Xu, Yangfei, 2023. "International transmission of exchange rate volatility: Evidence from FIEs’ investments in China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Antonio De Vito & Martin Jacob & Dirk Schindler & Guosong Xu, 2025. "How do corporate tax hikes affect investment allocation within multinationals?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 531-565.
    4. Junsheng Zhang & Xuefeng Jing & Yue Qi, 2024. "Disclosure frequency of parent company financial reporting: Insights from analyst forecasting accuracy," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(4), pages 3657-3683, December.
    5. Sarah Clifford & Jakob Miethe, 2025. "The Multinational Capital Advantage," CESifo Working Paper Series 12244, CESifo.
    6. Lionel Fontagné & Gianluca Santoni, 2022. "Regional Diffusion of Foreign Demand Shocks Through Trade and Ownership Networks," Working Papers 2022-08, CEPII research center.
    7. Liang, Chen & Zhu, Minghao & Lee, Peter K.C. & Cheng, T.C.E. & Yeung, Andy C.L., 2024. "Combating extreme weather through operations management: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    8. Janet Gao & Shan Ge & Lawrence D. W. Schmidt & Cristina Tello-Trillo, 2023. "How Do Health Insurance Costs Affect Firm Labor Composition and Technology Investment?," Working Papers 23-47, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. Marcus Biermann & Kilian Huber, 2024. "Tracing the International Transmission of a Crisis through Multinational Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1789-1829, June.
    10. Jan Bena & Andrew Ellul & Marco Pagano & Valentina Rutigliano, 2025. "Entrepreneurs’ Diversification and Labor Income Risk," CSEF Working Papers 754, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 07 Oct 2025.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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