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Does Overconfidence Bias Explain Volatility During the Global Financial Crisis?

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  • Mouna Abbes

Abstract

This paper explores the problem of the current global financial crisis, using a behavioral perspective. Particularly, the main objective of this paper is to test whether overconfidence bias can explain excessive volatility witnessed during global financial crisis in developed and emerging equity markets. Empirical results of EGARCH estimated models show an asymmetric effect of volatility for all equity market indexes. The relation between excessive trading volume of overconfident investors and excessive prices volatility is then estimated. The results indicate that conditional volatility is positively related to trading volume caused by overconfidence bias. This finding provides strong statistical support to the presence of overconfidence bias among investors in developed and emerging stocks markets. This cognitive bias contributes to the exceptional financial instability that erupted in 2008. However, during the subprime financial crisis period overconfidence bias cannot explain volatility because of the loss of confidence by investors in financial markets. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Mouna Abbes, 2013. "Does Overconfidence Bias Explain Volatility During the Global Financial Crisis?," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 291-312, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:trstrv:v:19:y:2013:i:3:p:291-312
    DOI: 10.1007/s11300-012-0234-6
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    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti & Aris Kartsaklas, 2021. "Investors' trading behaviour and stock market volatility during crisis periods: A dual long‐memory model for the Korean Stock Exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4441-4461, July.
    3. Reddy, Kotapati Srinivasa, 2015. "The impact of the global financial crisis on border-crossing mergers and acquisitions: A continental/industry analysis," MPRA Paper 63563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    4. Kouamé Marcel ANZIAN & Paul Vivien OYIBO & Koffi Mouroufie Emmanuel DJEBAN & Ebi Georges FOSSOU, 2023. "The effect of overconfidence behaviour on stock market volatility in Belgium," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 131-146, Autumn.
    5. Kim, Hohyun & Kim, Kyoung Tae & Hanna, Sherman D., 2022. "The Effect of Investment Literacy on the Likelihood of Retail Investor Margin Trading and Having a Margin Call," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    6. Narendar Rao & K. Reddy, 2015. "The impact of the global financial crisis on cross-border mergers and acquisitions: a continental and industry analysis," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 309-341, December.
    7. Lubna Zia & Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu & Shujahat Haider Hashmi, 2017. "Testing overconfidence bias in Pakistani stock market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1289656-128, January.
    8. Rabeea Sadaf & Aqeel Younis, 2017. "Investor Psychology And Decision Making; Based On Overconfidence And Self Attribution Bias: Evidence From Islamabad Stock Exchange (Ise)," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 497-505, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global financial crisis; Overconfidence; Behavioral finance; Volatility; EGARCH; G01; G12; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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