IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/v3(636)y2023i3(636)p131-146.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of overconfidence behaviour on stock market volatility in Belgium

Author

Listed:
  • Kouamé Marcel ANZIAN

    (Alassane Ouattara University, Bouaké, Côte d’Ivoire)

  • Paul Vivien OYIBO

    (Alassane Ouattara University, Bouaké, Côte d’Ivoire)

  • Koffi Mouroufie Emmanuel DJEBAN

    (Alassane Ouattara University, Bouaké, Côte d’Ivoire)

  • Ebi Georges FOSSOU

    (Alassane Ouattara University, Bouaké, Côte d’Ivoire)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to measure whether the investor operating on the Brussels Stock Exchange exhibits overconfidence behaviour, and to examine, under this hypothesis, the role of overconfidence in explaining fluctuations in the value of the BEL20 benchmark index over a 22-year period from 03 January 2000 to 21 October 2022. By exploiting econometric techniques in terms of causality and modelling conditional volatility, the results of this research show the presence of the excess confidence feature and its positive effect on the conditional volatility of the daily return of the BEL20 index.

Suggested Citation

  • Kouamé Marcel ANZIAN & Paul Vivien OYIBO & Koffi Mouroufie Emmanuel DJEBAN & Ebi Georges FOSSOU, 2023. "The effect of overconfidence behaviour on stock market volatility in Belgium," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 131-146, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:3(636):y:2023:i:3(636):p:131-146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1681.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1681&rid=152
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1983. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 929-956, December.
    2. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Hirshleifer, David & Luo, Guo Ying, 2001. "On the survival of overconfident traders in a competitive securities market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 73-84, January.
    5. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    9. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    10. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    11. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    13. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    14. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    15. Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September.
    16. Mouna Abbes, 2013. "Does Overconfidence Bias Explain Volatility During the Global Financial Crisis?," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 291-312, February.
    17. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    18. Lubna Zia & Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu & Shujahat Haider Hashmi, 2017. "Testing overconfidence bias in Pakistani stock market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1289656-128, January.
    19. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
    20. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    21. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    2. Piet Eichholtz & Erkan Yönder, 2015. "CEO Overconfidence, REIT Investment Activity and Performance," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 139-162, March.
    3. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ramzi Boussaidi, 2022. "Implications of the overconfidence bias in presence of private information: Evidence from MENA stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3660-3678, July.
    5. Chuang, Wen-I & Susmel, Rauli, 2011. "Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1626-1644, July.
    6. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021.
    7. Mouna BOUJELBENE ABBES & Youn�s BOUJELBENE & Abdelfettah BOURI, 2009. "Overconfidence Bias: Explanation Of Market Anomalies French Market Case," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
    8. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    9. Kenneth Yung & Yen-Chih Liu, 2009. "Implications of futures trading volume: Hedgers versus speculators," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(5), pages 318-337, December.
    10. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    11. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    12. Zhang, Xiaotao & Liang, Junpeng & He, Feng, 2019. "Private information advantage or overconfidence? Performance of intraday arbitrage speculators in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    14. Glaser, Markus & Nöth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Behavioral finance," Papers 03-14, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    15. Mushinada, Venkata Narasimha Chary, 2020. "Are individual investors irrational or adaptive to market dynamics?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    16. Han‐Sheng Chen & Sanjiv Sabherwal, 2019. "Overconfidence among option traders," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 61-91, January.
    17. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    18. Phan, Thuy Chung & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Wang, Mei, 2018. "What leads to overtrading and under-diversification? Survey evidence from retail investors in an emerging market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 39-55.
    19. Tai-Yuen Hon & Massoud Moslehpour & Kai-Yin Woo, 2021. "Review on Behavioral Finance with Empirical Evidence," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(4), pages 15-41, December.
    20. Markku Vieru & Jukka Perttunen & Hannu Schadewitz, 2006. "How Investors Trade Around Interim Earnings Announcements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1‐2), pages 145-178, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:3(636):y:2023:i:3(636):p:131-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marin Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.