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US presidential elections and cross-market spillovers: DCC-GARCH R2 analysis of crypto, DeFi, NFTs, and oil

Author

Listed:
  • Nidhal Mgadmi

    (Quantitative Methods and Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Management)

  • Fekria Belhouchet

    (University of Sfax)

  • Néjib Hachicha

    (Quantitative Methods and Finance Department, Faculty of Economics and Management)

  • Wajdi Moussa

    (High Institute of Management)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the 2024 U.S. presidential election on the returns of crypto-currencies, DeFi tokens, NFTs, and oil prices, using the DCC-GARCH R2 method. The results show that dynamic connectivity varies over time. Moreover, our results indicate that certain assets, particularly Ethereum, BAT, and XTZ, act as net shock transmitters that influence other financial markets, while oil primarily serves as a shock receiver. Interestingly, Bitcoin is typically viewed as a haven. Optimized portfolios using Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP) and Minimum Risk Portfolio (MRP) strategies yield superior risk-adjusted returns, especially during volatility spikes. The results have important implications for policymakers, investors, and risk managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Nidhal Mgadmi & Fekria Belhouchet & Néjib Hachicha & Wajdi Moussa, 2025. "US presidential elections and cross-market spillovers: DCC-GARCH R2 analysis of crypto, DeFi, NFTs, and oil," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(9), pages 1-36, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:5:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s43546-025-00898-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-025-00898-5
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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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