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Relationships between typhoons, climate and crime rates in Taiwan

Author

Listed:
  • Chin-Hsien Yu

    (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

  • Jianhong E. Mu

    (Oregon State University)

  • Jinxiu Ding

    (Xiamen University)

  • Bruce A. McCarl

    (Texas A&M University)

Abstract

The literature indicates climate change is likely to cause more frequent and intense extreme weather events along with higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Taiwan frequently suffers from extremes in the form of typhoons, and their effects threaten both social stability and public security. Temperature effects through climate change are also expected to alter crime rates. We examine the immediate and longer-run impacts of typhoons and other climate variables on crime rates in Taiwan. The immediate results suggest that typhoon intensity has a significantly negative influence on rates of crime, including all violent crimes and automobile thefts. They also show that warmer temperatures have a strong positive effect on all violent crimes and all the subtypes of violent crimes. In addition, longer duration typhoons increase the immediate rates of all violent crimes, automobile thefts and muggings while decreasing the rate of burglaries. In the long run, we find that typhoon intensity, duration and landfall have persistent, lagged effects on crime that vary from negative to positive. For example, strong-intensity typhoons have significantly negative lagged effects on crimes 3–5 months in the future but positive lagged effects on crimes in future months 6–9. Finally, projections under the IPCC climate change scenarios show all violent crimes will increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Chin-Hsien Yu & Jianhong E. Mu & Jinxiu Ding & Bruce A. McCarl, 2017. "Relationships between typhoons, climate and crime rates in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(2), pages 871-897, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:89:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2998-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2998-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yingying Sun & Ziqiang Han, 2018. "Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. Ulrike Grote & Thanh-Tung Nguyen & Trung Thanh Nguyen & Frank Neubacher, 2022. "Applying the routine activity approach to crime victimization in rural Southeast Asia," TVSEP Working Papers wp-025, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade, Project TVSEP.
    3. Sultana Zeenat Fouzia & Jianhong Mu & Yong Chen, 2020. "Local labour market impacts of climate-related disasters: a demand-and-supply analysis," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 336-352, July.
    4. Grote, Ulrike & Nguyen, Thanh-Tung & Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Neubacher, Frank, 2024. "Determinants and impacts of rural crime victimization: Evidence from a case study in Southeast Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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