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Evidence and determinants of rural crime victimization in Tanzania

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  • Grote, Ulrike
  • Mager, Gregor
  • Faße, Anja
  • Neubacher, Frank
  • Kissoly, Luitfred

Abstract

Rural crime victimization, especially in form of theft, is a serious problem in rural areas in Sub Saharan Africa as it may undermine their sustainable development. Using the case of Tanzania, we investigate the evidence of crime and analyze the factors which determine victimization. Based on a panel dataset of 786 households from rural Tanzania, we find relatively high victimization rates of 37 % and 47 % in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The random-effects and pooled logit models reveal that living in a rural region with high levels of unemployment is positively correlated with the likelihood of victimization. Moreover, exposure to weather shocks such as floods is positively associated with the likelihood of being affected by crime. We conclude that rural crime victimization requires attention due to its high incidence in Tanzania. Improving job opportunities especially for the youth in rural Tanzania is expected to reduce the likelihood of victimization. Guardianship should be encouraged, especially during times of weather shocks.

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  • Grote, Ulrike & Mager, Gregor & Faße, Anja & Neubacher, Frank & Kissoly, Luitfred, 2025. "Evidence and determinants of rural crime victimization in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:187:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x24003243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106854
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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