IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v120y2024i14d10.1007_s11069-024-06704-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drought shocks, adaptive strategies, and vulnerability to relative poverty

Author

Listed:
  • Lijin Liu

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Yilin Wu

    (Renmin University of China
    Renmin University of China)

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of drought shocks on the vulnerability to relative poverty of farm households based on the fixed-effects model using Chinese micro-household data. Further, we examine the effectiveness of different adaptive strategies in mitigating the adversely impacts of drought. The results show that drought shocks suffered by farm households during the growth season will significantly increase household vulnerability to relative poverty and the probability of farm households falling into relative poverty in the future increases. The results of the mechanism analysis indicate that drought shocks affect household vulnerability to relative poverty mainly by affecting household income, health status, and production behavior. The results of heterogeneity analysis revealed that households in poor areas as well as low-income households are more affected by drought shocks. With adaptive strategies such as engaging in off-farm employment, joining farmer cooperatives, and using digital financial inclusion tools, the negative impacts of drought shocks are significantly mitigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Lijin Liu & Yilin Wu, 2024. "Drought shocks, adaptive strategies, and vulnerability to relative poverty," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(14), pages 12679-12703, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:14:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06704-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06704-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06704-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06704-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katharina Grabrucker & Michael Grimm, 2021. "Is There a Rainbow after the Rain? How Do Agricultural Shocks Affect Non‐Farm Enterprises? Evidence from Thailand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1612-1636, October.
    2. Elisabeth Fischer & Matin Qaim, 2010. "Linking Smallholders to Markets: Determinants and Impacts of Farmer Collective Action in Kenya," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 48, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    3. Mulubrhan Amare & Solomon Asfaw & Bekele Shiferaw, 2012. "Welfare impacts of maize–pigeonpea intensification in Tanzania," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 27-43, January.
    4. repec:oup:apecpp:v:37:y:2015:i:1:p:86-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dercon, Stefan & Christiaensen, Luc, 2011. "Consumption risk, technology adoption and poverty traps: Evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 159-173, November.
    6. Mamoudou Ba & Amar Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2021. "Non‐farm employment and poverty reduction in Mauritania," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 490-514, April.
    7. Trinh Nguyen Chau & Frank Scrimgeour, 2023. "Will climate change jeopardize the Vietnamese target of maintaining farmland for food security? A fractional multinomial logit analysis of land use choice," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(4), pages 570-587, July.
    8. Yang Zou & Qingbin Wang, 2022. "Impacts of farmer cooperative membership on household income and inequality: Evidence from a household survey in China," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Hongbo Zhao & Xiao Zheng & Lin Yang, 2022. "Does Digital Inclusive Finance Narrow the Urban-Rural Income Gap through Primary Distribution and Redistribution?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    10. Cheng He & Yuqiang Zhang & Alexandra Schneider & Renjie Chen & Yan Zhang & Weichun Ma & Patrick L. Kinney & Haidong Kan, 2022. "The inequality labor loss risk from future urban warming and adaptation strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    11. Ashok K. Mishra & Kh. A. Mottaleb & Samarendu Mohanty, 2015. "Impact of off-farm income on food expenditures in rural Bangladesh: an unconditional quantile regression approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 139-148, March.
    12. Costa, Lucas & Sant'Anna, André Albuquerque & Young, Carlos Eduardo Frickmann, 2023. "Barren lives: drought shocks and agricultural vulnerability in the Brazilian Semi-Arid," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(6), pages 603-623, December.
    13. Ellen Verhofstadt & Miet Maertens, 2015. "Can Agricultural Cooperatives Reduce Poverty? Heterogeneous Impact of Cooperative Membership on Farmers' Welfare in Rwanda," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 86-106.
    14. Olukorede Abiona & Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner, 2022. "Financial Inclusion, Shocks, and Poverty: Evidence from the Expansion of Mobile Money in Tanzania," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(2), pages 435-464.
    15. Raghbendra Jha & Tu Dang & Yusuf Tashrifov, 2010. "Economic vulnerability and poverty in Tajikistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 95-112, May.
    16. Siddig, Khalid & Stepanyan, Davit & Wiebelt, Manfred & Grethe, Harald & Zhu, Tingju, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    17. Peter Agamile & Ralitza Dimova & Jennifer Golan, 2021. "Crop Choice, Drought and Gender: New Insights from Smallholders’ Response to Weather Shocks in Rural Uganda," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 829-856, September.
    18. Zhang, Peng & Zhang, Junjie & Chen, Minpeng, 2017. "Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: The importance of additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 8-31.
    19. Vargas, Renato & Cabrera, Maynor & Cicowiez, Martin & Escobar, Pamela & Hernández, Violeta & Cabrera, Javier & Guzmán, Vivian, 2018. "Climate risk and food availability in Guatemala," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 558-579, October.
    20. Jean‐Paul Chavas & Giorgia Rivieccio & Salvatore Di Falco & Giovanni De Luca & Fabian Capitanio, 2022. "Agricultural diversification, productivity, and food security across time and space," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 41-58, November.
    21. Li, Jie & Wu, Yu & Xiao, Jing Jian, 2020. "The impact of digital finance on household consumption: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 317-326.
    22. Martin Ravallion & Shaohua Chen, 2011. "Weakly Relative Poverty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1251-1261, November.
    23. Mulubrhan Amare & Bekele Shiferaw & Hiroyuki Takeshima & George Mavrotas, 2021. "Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 19-36, January.
    24. Danyelle Branco & José Féres, 2021. "Weather Shocks and Labor Allocation: Evidence from Rural Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1359-1377, August.
    25. Demeke, Abera Birhanu & Zeller, Manfred, 2012. "Weather Risk and Household Participation in Off-farm Activities in Rural Ethiopia," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 51(01), pages 1-20, February.
    26. Marin Elisabeth Skidmore, 2023. "Outsourcing the dry season: Cattle ranchers' responses to weather shocks in the Brazilian Amazon," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 409-433, March.
    27. Huang, Kaixing & Zhao, Hong & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia & Findlay, Christopher, 2020. "The impact of climate change on the labor allocation: Empirical evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    28. Gao, Jianfeng & Mills, Bradford F., 2018. "Weather Shocks, Coping Strategies, and Consumption Dynamics in Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 268-283.
    29. Masanori Matsuura‐Kannari & Yir‐Hueih Luh & Abu Hayat Md. Saiful Islam, 2023. "Weather shocks, livelihood diversification, and household food security: Empirical evidence from rural Bangladesh," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(4), pages 455-470, July.
    30. Xiaomeng Cui & Shuaizhang Feng, 2021. "Labour reallocation as adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(11), pages 901-902, November.
    31. Stephane Hallegatte & Julie Rozenberg, 2017. "Climate change through a poverty lens," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 250-256, April.
    32. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    33. Costa, Lucas & Sant'Anna, André Albuquerque & Young, Carlos Eduardo Frickmann, 2023. "Barren lives: drought shocks and agricultural vulnerability in the Brazilian Semi-Arid," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(6), pages 603-623, December.
    34. Muhammad Ashraf & Adnan Arshad & Praharsh M. Patel & Adeel Khan & Huma Qamar & Ristina Siti-Sundari & Muhammad Usman Ghani & Ali Amin & Jamilur Rehman Babar, 2021. "Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2127-2151, December.
    35. Xiaomeng Cui & Wei Xie, 2022. "Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 249-272, January.
    36. Maximilian Auffhammer, 2018. "Quantifying Economic Damages from Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 33-52, Fall.
    37. Wei Pei & Cuizhu Tian & Qiang Fu & Yongtai Ren & Tianxiao Li, 2022. "Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1599-1620, February.
    38. Marc F. Bellemare, 2013. "The Productivity Impacts of Formal and Informal Land Rights: Evidence from Madagascar," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(2), pages 272-290.
    39. Fischer, Elisabeth & Qaim, Matin, 2012. "Linking Smallholders to Markets: Determinants and Impacts of Farmer Collective Action in Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1255-1268.
    40. Yulong Yao & Wei Zhang & Ben Kirtman, 2023. "Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-20, October.
    41. Lenis Saweda O Liverpool‐Tasie & Charuta M. Parkhi, 2021. "Climate Risk and Technology Adoption in the Midstream of Crop Value Chains: Evidence from Nigerian Maize Traders," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 158-179, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:lic:licosd:38016 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Van den Broeck, Goedele & Swinnen, Johan & Maertens, Miet, 2017. "Global value chains, large-scale farming, and poverty: Long-term effects in Senegal," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 97-107.
    3. Edouard Pignède, 2025. "Who carries the burden of climate change? Heterogeneous impact of droughts in sub‐Saharan Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 107(3), pages 925-957, May.
    4. Afridi, Farzana & Mahajan, Kanika & Sangwan, Nikita, 2022. "The gendered effects of droughts: Production shocks and labor response in agriculture," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Litao Feng & Wei Liu & Zhihui Zhao & Yining Wang, 2023. "Rainfall fluctuations and rural poverty: Evidence from Chinese county‐level data," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 633-656, July.
    6. Zhanping Hu & Qian Forrest Zhang, 2024. "Alternative agrifood systems and the economic sustainability of farmers' cooperatives: The Chinese experience," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 7447-7460, December.
    7. Dinesh Dhakal & David O’Brien & Peter Mueser, 2021. "Government Policy and Performance of Agricultural Cooperatives: A Case Study in Chitwan District, Nepal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-20, November.
    8. Susana Ferreira, 2024. "Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation Policies," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 207-231, October.
    9. Teresa Janz & Gassmann,Franziska & de Ervin,Lyliana Gayoso, 2024. "Weathering Shocks : Unraveling the Effects of Short-Term Weather Shocks on Poverty in Paraguay," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10970, The World Bank.
    10. Guyo Godana Dureti & Martin Paul Jr. Tabe‐Ojong & Enoch Owusu‐Sekyere, 2023. "The new normal? Cluster farming and smallholder commercialization in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(6), pages 900-920, November.
    11. Margitta Minah, 2022. "What is the influence of government programs on farmer organizations and their impacts? Evidence from Zambia," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(1), pages 29-53, March.
    12. Jasper GRASHUIS & Ye SU, 2019. "A Review Of The Empirical Literature On Farmer Cooperatives: Performance, Ownership And Governance, Finance, And Member Attitude," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(1), pages 77-102, March.
    13. Feriga, Moustafa & Lozano Gracia, Nancy & Serneels, Pieter, 2024. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work Lessons for Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 16914, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Yuanyuan Peng & H. Holly Wang & Yueshu Zhou, 2022. "Can cooperatives help commercial farms to access credit in China? Evidence from Jiangsu Province," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(4), pages 325-349, December.
    15. Corsi, Stefano & Marchisio, Laura Viviana & Orsi, Luigi, 2017. "Connecting smallholder farmers to local markets: Drivers of collective action, land tenure and food security in East Chad," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 39-47.
    16. Kuhle Prudence Mnisi & Abdul Latif Alhassan, 2021. "Financial structure and cooperative efficiency: A pecking‐order evidence from sugarcane farmers in Eswatini," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 261-281, June.
    17. Aniseh S. Bro & Daniel C. Clay & David L. Ortega & Maria C. Lopez, 2019. "Determinants of adoption of sustainable production practices among smallholder coffee producers in Nicaragua," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 895-915, April.
    18. Liu, Ziheng & Lu, Qinan, 2023. "Ozone stress and crop harvesting failure: Evidence from US food production," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Ma, Wanglin & Abdulai, Awudu, 2016. "Does cooperative membership improve household welfare? Evidence from apple farmers in China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 94-102.
    20. Abebe, Meseret B. & Alem, Yonas, 2023. "Drought, Livestock Holding, and Milk Production: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis," EfD Discussion Paper 23-12, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    21. Renwick, A. & Ma, W. & Nie, P. & Tang, J., 2018. "The Joint Effects of Off-farm Work and Smartphone Use on Household Income in Rural China," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277304, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:14:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06704-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.