IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v110y2022i3d10.1007_s11069-021-05004-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Pei

    (Northeast Agricultural University
    Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Cuizhu Tian

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Qiang Fu

    (Northeast Agricultural University
    Northeast Agricultural University
    Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Yongtai Ren

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Tianxiao Li

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

Abstract

The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Pei & Cuizhu Tian & Qiang Fu & Yongtai Ren & Tianxiao Li, 2022. "Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1599-1620, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:110:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-05004-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05004-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-05004-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-021-05004-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deng-Hua Yan & Dong-Mei Han & Gang Wang & Yong Yuan & Yong Hu & Hong-yang Fang, 2014. "The evolution analysis of flood and drought in Huai River Basin of China based on monthly precipitation characteristics," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 849-858, September.
    2. Saowanit Prabnakorn & Shreedhar Maskey & F. X. Suryadi & Charlotte Fraiture, 2019. "Assessment of drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk for rice cultivation in the Mun River Basin in Thailand," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 891-911, June.
    3. Zuo, Depeng & Cai, Siyang & Xu, Zongxue & Peng, Dingzhi & Kan, Guangyuan & Sun, Wenchao & Pang, Bo & Yang, Hong, 2019. "Assessment of meteorological and agricultural droughts using in-situ observations and remote sensing data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 125-138.
    4. Huili Chen & Zhongyao Liang & Yong Liu & Qingsong Jiang & Shuguang Xie, 2018. "Effects of drought and flood on crop production in China across 1949–2015: spatial heterogeneity analysis with Bayesian hierarchical modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 525-541, May.
    5. Jiayang Zhang & Yangbo Chen, 2019. "Risk Assessment of Flood Disaster Induced by Typhoon Rainstorms in Guangdong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Xiao, Yuanhui, 2017. "A fast algorithm for two-dimensional Kolmogorov–Smirnov two sample tests," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 53-58.
    7. Itziar González Tánago & Julia Urquijo & Veit Blauhut & Fermín Villarroya & Lucia De Stefano, 2016. "Learning from experience: a systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 951-973, January.
    8. Parsons, David J. & Rey, Dolores & Tanguy, Maliko & Holman, Ian P., 2019. "Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 119-129.
    9. Yang, Huicai & Wang, Huixiao & Fu, Guobin & Yan, Haiming & Zhao, Panpan & Ma, Meihong, 2017. "A modified soil water deficit index (MSWDI) for agricultural drought monitoring: Case study of Songnen Plain, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 125-138.
    10. Itziar González Tánago & Julia Urquijo & Veit Blauhut & Fermín Villarroya & Lucia De Stefano, 2016. "Learning from experience: a systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 951-973, January.
    11. Di Wu & Deng-Hua Yan & Gui-Yu Yang & Xiao-Gang Wang & Wei-Hua Xiao & Hai-Tao Zhang, 2013. "Assessment on agricultural drought vulnerability in the Yellow River basin based on a fuzzy clustering iterative model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 919-936, June.
    12. Huafeng Xu & Kexin Xu & Yingjie Yang, 2021. "Risk assessment model of agricultural drought disaster based on grey matter-element analysis theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2693-2707, July.
    13. Jeanne Luh & Elizabeth Christenson & Aizhan Toregozhina & David Holcomb & Tucker Witsil & Laura Hamrick & Edema Ojomo & Jamie Bartram, 2015. "Vulnerability assessment for loss of access to drinking water due to extreme weather events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 665-679, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qianchuan Mi & Chuanyou Ren & Yanhua Wang & Xining Gao & Limin Liu & Yue Li, 2023. "A robust ensemble drought index: construction and assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1139-1159, March.
    2. Dongxing Zhang & Dang Luo, 2022. "Assessment of agricultural drought loss using a skewed grey cloud ordered clustering model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2787-2810, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kavina S. Dayal & Ravinesh C. Deo & Armando A. Apan, 2018. "Spatio-temporal drought risk mapping approach and its application in the drought-prone region of south-east Queensland, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(2), pages 823-847, September.
    2. Janna Frischen & Isabel Meza & Daniel Rupp & Katharina Wietler & Michael Hagenlocher, 2020. "Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Li Fawen & Zhang Manjing & Liu Yaoze, 2022. "Quantitative research on drought loss sensitivity of summer maize based on AquaCrop model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1065-1084, June.
    4. Wei Pei & Qiang Fu & Dong Liu & Tianxiao Li & Kun Cheng & Song Cui, 2019. "A Novel Method for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 2033-2047, April.
    5. Raissa Zurli Bittencourt Bravo & Adriana Leiras & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira & Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha, 2023. "DRAI: a risk-based drought monitoring and alerting system in Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 113-142, May.
    6. Araceli Martin-Candilejo & Francisco J. Martin-Carrasco & Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote, 2023. "Heading into the Unknown? Exploring Sustainable Drought Management in the Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Dayanna Rodrigues da Cunha Nunes & Orivalde Soares da Silva Júnior & Renata Albergaria de Mello Bandeira & Yesus Emmanuel Medeiros Vieira, 2023. "A Robust Stochastic Programming Model for the Well Location Problem: The Case of The Brazilian Northeast Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Jesús Vargas & Pilar Paneque, 2017. "Methodology for the analysis of causes of drought vulnerability on the River Basin scale," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(2), pages 609-621, November.
    9. Wang, Fei & Lai, Hexin & Li, Yanbin & Feng, Kai & Zhang, Zezhong & Tian, Qingqing & Zhu, Xiaomeng & Yang, Haibo, 2022. "Dynamic variation of meteorological drought and its relationships with agricultural drought across China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    10. Itziar González Tánago & Julia Urquijo & Veit Blauhut & Fermín Villarroya & Lucia De Stefano, 2016. "Learning from experience: a systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 951-973, January.
    11. Thomas Slijper & Yann de Mey & P Marijn Poortvliet & Miranda P M Meuwissen, 2022. "Quantifying the resilience of European farms using FADN," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(1), pages 121-150.
    12. Balikisu Osman, 2023. "Climate and Food Insecurity Risks: Identifying Exposure and Vulnerabilities in the Post-Food Production System of Northern Ghana," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-19, November.
    13. Dean Kyne, 2023. "A Bird’s-Eye View of Colonias Hosting Forgotten Americans and Their Community Resilience in the Rio Grande Valley," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, July.
    14. Rong Tang & Xiugui Wang & Xudong Han & Yihui Yan & Shuang Huang & Jiesheng Huang & Tao Shen & Youzhen Wang & Jia Liu, 2022. "Effects of Combined Main Ditch and Field Ditch Control Measures on Crop Yield and Drainage Discharge in the Northern Huaihe River Plain, Anhui Province, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-25, August.
    15. Huili Chen & Zhongyao Liang & Yong Liu & Qingsong Jiang & Shuguang Xie, 2018. "Effects of drought and flood on crop production in China across 1949–2015: spatial heterogeneity analysis with Bayesian hierarchical modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 525-541, May.
    16. Yu Xiaobing & Li Chenliang & Huo Tongzhao & Ji Zhonghui, 2021. "Information diffusion theory-based approach for the risk assessment of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2337-2362, July.
    17. Parastoo Parivar & David Quanrud & Ahad Sotoudeh & Mahdieh Abolhasani, 2021. "Evaluation of urban ecological sustainability in arid lands (case study: Yazd-Iran)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 2797-2826, February.
    18. Yaojie Yue & Jian Li & Xinyue Ye & Zhiqiang Wang & A-Xing Zhu & Jing-ai Wang, 2015. "An EPIC model-based vulnerability assessment of wheat subject to drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1629-1652, September.
    19. Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Noraliani Alias & Eun-Sung Chung, 2018. "Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    20. Divya Saini & Omvir Singh & Tejpal Sharma & Pankaj Bhardwaj, 2022. "Geoinformatics and analytic hierarchy process based drought vulnerability assessment over a dryland ecosystem of north-western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1427-1454, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:110:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-05004-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.