IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v33y2019i6d10.1007_s11269-019-02225-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Novel Method for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Pei

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Qiang Fu

    (Northeast Agricultural University
    Northeast Agricultural University
    Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Dong Liu

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Tianxiao Li

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Kun Cheng

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Song Cui

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

Abstract

Climate change, increased temperatures and imbalanced precipitation distributions will potentially increase the local drought risk in certain areas. Drought assessment can identify the hidden dangers of drought and provide a theoretical basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, a new agricultural drought risk assessment method proposed from the perspective of grain yield. The first principal components of precipitation, temperature, humidity and soil moisture represent hazard factors. The sensitive yield, which represents the sensitivity, was separated from the grain yield using a regression method. Additionally, the trend component of the grain yield represents the adaptive capacity, and the crop planting area represents exposure. Based on these definitions, the concepts of unit drought risk and regional drought risk are proposed. Four cities in Heilongjiang Province, which has the highest grain yield of any province in China, were used as application examples, and the spatial and temporal variation in the agricultural drought risk were analyzed. Application example show that the method for evaluating agricultural drought presented in this paper is reasonable in a statistical sense. The process for calculating sensitivity and adaptability shows that this method is suitable for arid and semi-arid areas, where grain yield is sensitive to hazard factors, and areas where grain yield has a certain trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Pei & Qiang Fu & Dong Liu & Tianxiao Li & Kun Cheng & Song Cui, 2019. "A Novel Method for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 2033-2047, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02225-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02225-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-019-02225-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-019-02225-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Di Wu & Deng-Hua Yan & Gui-Yu Yang & Xiao-Gang Wang & Wei-Hua Xiao & Hai-Tao Zhang, 2013. "Assessment on agricultural drought vulnerability in the Yellow River basin based on a fuzzy clustering iterative model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 919-936, June.
    2. Wei Pei & Qiang Fu & Dong Liu & Tian-xiao Li & Kun Cheng, 2016. "Assessing agricultural drought vulnerability in the Sanjiang Plain based on an improved projection pursuit model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 683-701, May.
    3. Jinping Zhang & Yong Zhao & Zhihong Ding, 2014. "Research on the Relationships Between Rainfall and Meteorological Yield in Irrigation District," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1689-1702, April.
    4. Jeanne Luh & Elizabeth Christenson & Aizhan Toregozhina & David Holcomb & Tucker Witsil & Laura Hamrick & Edema Ojomo & Jamie Bartram, 2015. "Vulnerability assessment for loss of access to drinking water due to extreme weather events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 665-679, December.
    5. M. Ionita & P. Scholz & S. Chelcea, 2016. "Assessment of droughts in Romania using the Standardized Precipitation Index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1483-1498, April.
    6. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi, 2018. "A Non-Stationary Reconnaissance Drought Index (NRDI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2611-2624, June.
    7. Nam, Won-Ho & Hayes, Michael J. & Svoboda, Mark D. & Tadesse, Tsegaye & Wilhite, Donald A., 2015. "Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 106-117.
    8. Hao Guo & Xingming Zhang & Fang Lian & Yuan Gao & Degen Lin & Jing’ai Wang, 2016. "Drought Risk Assessment Based on Vulnerability Surfaces: A Case Study of Maize," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-22, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ji Eun Kim & Jisoo Yu & Jae-Hee Ryu & Joo-Heon Lee & Tae-Woong Kim, 2021. "Assessment of regional drought vulnerability and risk using principal component analysis and a Gaussian mixture model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 707-724, October.
    2. Raissa Zurli Bittencourt Bravo & Adriana Leiras & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira & Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha, 2023. "DRAI: a risk-based drought monitoring and alerting system in Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 113-142, May.
    3. Yessi Rahmawati & Andiga Kusuma Nur Ichsan & Annisaa Rizky Dwi Brintanti & Iqram Ramadhan Jamil, 2023. "Geo-spatial analysis: the impact of agriculture productivity, drought, and irrigation on poverty in East Java, Indonesia," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2022. "Assessing and Predicting the Vulnerability to Agrometeorological Drought Using the Fuzzy-AHP and Second-order Markov Chain techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4403-4424, September.
    5. Liu, Cong & Li, Kaiwei & Zhang, Jiquan & Guga, Suri & Wang, Rui & Liu, Xingpeng & Tong, Zhijun, 2023. "Dynamic risk assessment of waterlogging disaster to spring peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in Henan Province, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    6. Zhai, Yijie & Zhang, Tianzuo & Ma, Xiaotian & Shen, Xiaoxu & Ji, Changxing & Bai, Yueyang & Hong, Jinglan, 2021. "Life cycle water footprint analysis of crop production in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    7. Dui, Hongyan & Wei, Xuan & Xing, Liudong & Chen, Liwei, 2023. "Performance-based maintenance analysis and resource allocation in irrigation networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    8. Soyeon Lim & Seungyub Lee & Donghwi Jung, 2021. "Identifying the Drought Impact Factors and Developing Drought Scenarios Using the DSD Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4809-4823, November.
    9. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi & Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi, 2023. "Determining the most appropriate drought index using the random forest algorithm with an emphasis on agricultural drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 923-946, January.
    10. Divya Saini & Omvir Singh & Tejpal Sharma & Pankaj Bhardwaj, 2022. "Geoinformatics and analytic hierarchy process based drought vulnerability assessment over a dryland ecosystem of north-western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1427-1454, November.
    11. Gi Joo Kim & Seung Beom Seo & Young-Oh Kim, 2022. "Adaptive Reservoir Management by Reforming the Zone-based Hedging Rules against Multi-year Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3575-3590, August.
    12. Olufemi Sunday Durowoju & Temi Emmanuel Ologunorisa & Ademola Akinbobola, 2022. "Assessing agricultural and hydrological drought vulnerability in a savanna ecological zone of Sub-Saharan Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2431-2458, April.
    13. Tan Huizhi & Lu Xiaoning & Yang Shiqi & Wang Yongqian & Li Feng & Liu Jinbao & Chen Jun & Huang Yue, 2022. "Drought risk assessment in the coupled spatial–temporal dimension of the Sichuan Basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 3205-3233, December.
    14. Zhu, Xiufang & Xu, Kun & Liu, Ying & Guo, Rui & Chen, Lingyi, 2021. "Assessing the vulnerability and risk of maize to drought in China based on the AquaCrop model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    15. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Jinsong Wang & Ping Yue & Suping Wang & Liang Zhang, 2023. "Grain Risk Analysis of Meteorological Disasters in Gansu Province Using Probability Statistics and Index Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-26, March.
    16. Fengjie Gao & Si Zhang & Rui Yu & Yafang Zhao & Yuxin Chen & Ying Zhang, 2023. "Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Based on a Comprehensive Model Using Geospatial Techniques in Songnen Plain, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, June.
    17. Lilin Zou & Xumin Zheng & Yongsheng Wang, 2022. "Spatial‐temporal evolution and influence factors of China’s agricultural non‐point source pollution discharge intensity in recent 40 years," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 1170-1189, September.
    18. Zhiyong Wu & Huihui Feng & Hai He & Jianhong Zhou & Yuliang Zhang, 2021. "Evaluation of Soil Moisture Climatology and Anomaly Components Derived From ERA5-Land and GLDAS-2.1 in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 629-643, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hongpeng Guo & Jia Chen & Chulin Pan, 2021. "Assessment on Agricultural Drought Vulnerability and Spatial Heterogeneity Study in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Wei Pei & Cuizhu Tian & Qiang Fu & Yongtai Ren & Tianxiao Li, 2022. "Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1599-1620, February.
    3. Robinson Ploszai & Miriam Rita Moro Mine & Daniel Henrique Marco Detzel, 2022. "An Analysis of Non-stationary Drought Conditions in Parana State Based on Climate Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3401-3415, August.
    4. Huifang Sun & Yaoguo Dang & Wenxin Mao, 2019. "Identifying key factors of regional agricultural drought vulnerability using a panel data grey combined method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(2), pages 621-642, September.
    5. Youxin Wang & Tao Peng & Qingxia Lin & Vijay P. Singh & Xiaohua Dong & Chen Chen & Ji Liu & Wenjuan Chang & Gaoxu Wang, 2022. "A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2433-2454, May.
    6. Dong Liu & Chunlei Liu & Qiang Fu & Tianxiao Li & Muhammad Imran Khan & Song Cui & Muhammad Abrar Faiz, 2018. "Projection Pursuit Evaluation Model of Regional Surface Water Environment Based on Improved Chicken Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1325-1342, March.
    7. Moonju Kim & Befekadu Chemere & Kyungil Sung, 2019. "Effect of Heavy Rainfall Events on the Dry Matter Yield Trend of Whole Crop Maize ( Zea mays L.)," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-11, April.
    8. Ying Guo & Rui Wang & Zhijun Tong & Xingpeng Liu & Jiquan Zhang, 2019. "Dynamic Evaluation and Regionalization of Maize Drought Vulnerability in the Midwest of Jilin Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-21, August.
    9. Kaiwen Li & Ming Wang & Kai Liu, 2021. "The Study on Compound Drought and Heatwave Events in China Using Complex Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-15, November.
    10. Hong, Minki & Lee, Sang-Hyun & Lee, Seung-Jae & Choi, Jin-Yong, 2021. "Application of high-resolution meteorological data from NCAM-WRF to characterize agricultural drought in small-scale farmlands based on soil moisture deficit," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    11. Omolola M. Adisa & Muthoni Masinde & Joel O. Botai & Christina M. Botai, 2020. "Bibliometric Analysis of Methods and Tools for Drought Monitoring and Prediction in Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    12. Trnka, Miroslav & Vizina, Adam & Hanel, Martin & Balek, Jan & Fischer, Milan & Hlavinka, Petr & Semerádová, Daniela & Štěpánek, Petr & Zahradníček, Pavel & Skalák, Petr & Eitzinger, Josef & Dubrovský,, 2022. "Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    13. Itziar González Tánago & Julia Urquijo & Veit Blauhut & Fermín Villarroya & Lucia De Stefano, 2016. "Learning from experience: a systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 951-973, January.
    14. Zhuguang Lan & Ming Huang, 2018. "Safety assessment for seawall based on constrained maximum entropy projection pursuit model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1165-1178, April.
    15. Zhu, Xiufang & Xu, Kun & Liu, Ying & Guo, Rui & Chen, Lingyi, 2021. "Assessing the vulnerability and risk of maize to drought in China based on the AquaCrop model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    16. Huafeng Xu & Kexin Xu & Yingjie Yang, 2021. "Risk assessment model of agricultural drought disaster based on grey matter-element analysis theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2693-2707, July.
    17. Moonyoung Lee & Heejin An & Jiwan Lee & Myoung-Jin Um & Younghun Jung & Kewtae Kim & Kichul Jung & Seongjoon Kim & Daeryong Park, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variability of Regional Rainfall Frequencies in South Korea for Different Periods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-19, December.
    18. Wang, Zhiqiang & Ye, Li & Jiang, Jingyi & Fan, Yida & Zhang, Xiaoran, 2022. "Review of application of EPIC crop growth model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 467(C).
    19. Huili Chen & Zhongyao Liang & Yong Liu & Qingsong Jiang & Shuguang Xie, 2018. "Effects of drought and flood on crop production in China across 1949–2015: spatial heterogeneity analysis with Bayesian hierarchical modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 525-541, May.
    20. Yu Xiaobing & Li Chenliang & Huo Tongzhao & Ji Zhonghui, 2021. "Information diffusion theory-based approach for the risk assessment of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2337-2362, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02225-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.