IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v103y2020i1d10.1007_s11069-020-04023-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk mechanisms of large group emergency decision-making based on multi-agent simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Xuanpeng Yin

    (Central South University)

  • Xuanhua Xu

    (Central South University)

  • Xiaohong Chen

    (Central South University)

Abstract

There are many critical sources of risk in large group emergency decision-making. In this paper, we systematically identify individual and group sources of risk in large group emergency decision-making and explore the relationship between each risk factor and two group effects, namely cognitive conflict and relationship conflict. Based on this analysis, we model a large group emergency decision-making risk-causing system. The model allows examination of the effect of key risk factors. These variables include individual acceptance, group structure, interaction mode, decision strategy, and decision-making environment, and variable values are set. A multi-agent simulation model of large group emergency decision-making risk-causing is developed using the Netlogo tool based on opinion dynamics. Through case simulation, we obtain the generalization rule of the causal mechanisms for each risk factor. The simulation shows that controlling the proportion of highly accepted decision-making subjects, increasing the interaction between clusters, and taking necessary anticipatory measures can noticeably reduce decision-making risks and help large teams function in highly dynamic decision-making environments. By highlighting the composition and collective influence of risk factors in large group emergency decision-making, this research offers reference and guidance for strategy selection in emergency decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuanpeng Yin & Xuanhua Xu & Xiaohong Chen, 2020. "Risk mechanisms of large group emergency decision-making based on multi-agent simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 1009-1034, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04023-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04023-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04023-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04023-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Han Bleichrodt & Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2009. "Additive Utility in Prospect Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 863-873, May.
    2. Wang, S. & Huang, G.H., 2016. "Risk-based factorial probabilistic inference for optimization of flood control systems with correlated uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 258-269.
    3. Ikujiro Nonaka & Georg von Krogh, 2009. "Perspective---Tacit Knowledge and Knowledge Conversion: Controversy and Advancement in Organizational Knowledge Creation Theory," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(3), pages 635-652, June.
    4. Baumann, Michael R. & Bonner, Bryan L., 2004. "The effects of variability and expectations on utilization of member expertise and group performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 89-101, March.
    5. Thomas Langer & Martin Weber, 2001. "Prospect Theory, Mental Accounting, and Differences in Aggregated and Segregated Evaluation of Lottery Portfolios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(5), pages 716-733, May.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2011. "Opinion Dynamics and Learning in Social Networks," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 3-49, March.
    7. James Andreoni & Charles Sprenger, 2012. "Risk Preferences Are Not Time Preferences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3357-3376, December.
    8. Cristian L. Dezsö & David Gaddis Ross, 2012. "Does female representation in top management improve firm performance? A panel data investigation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9), pages 1072-1089, September.
    9. Robin L. Dillon & Catherine H. Tinsley, 2008. "How Near-Misses Influence Decision Making Under Risk: A Missed Opportunity for Learning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(8), pages 1425-1440, August.
    10. Andersson, Thomas & Cäker, Mikael & Tengblad, Stefan & Wickelgren, Mikael, 2019. "Building traits for organizational resilience through balancing organizational structures," Scandinavian Journal of Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 36-45.
    11. Sun, Bingzhen & Ma, Weimin, 2015. "An approach to consensus measurement of linguistic preference relations in multi-attribute group decision making and application," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 83-92.
    12. ., 2017. "Evolution in collective decision making," Chapters, in: Understanding Collective Decision Making, chapter 7, pages 167-192, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Chen Chen & Garud Iyengar & Ciamac C. Moallemi, 2013. "An Axiomatic Approach to Systemic Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1373-1388, June.
    14. Melissa C. Thomas-Hunt & Tonya Y. Ogden & Margaret A. Neale, 2003. "Who's Really Sharing? Effects of Social and Expert Status on Knowledge Exchange Within Groups," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(4), pages 464-477, April.
    15. Aggarwal, Ishani & Woolley, Anita Williams, 2013. "Do you see what I see? The effect of members’ cognitive styles on team processes and errors in task execution," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 92-99.
    16. Arora, Poonam & Peterson, Nicole D. & Krantz, David H. & Hardisty, David J. & Reddy, Kavita S., 2012. "To cooperate or not to cooperate: Using new methodologies and frameworks to understand how affiliation influences cooperation in the present and future," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 842-853.
    17. Tversky, Amos & Wakker, Peter, 1995. "Risk Attitudes and Decision Weights," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1255-1280, November.
    18. Garcia, Amanda & Obeidi, Amer & Hipel, Keith W., 2018. "Strategic advice for decision-making under conflict based on observed behaviour," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 96-104.
    19. Tamura, Hiroyuki & Yamamoto, Kouji & Tomiyama, Shinji & Hatono, Itsuo, 2000. "Modeling and analysis of decision making problem for mitigating natural disaster risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 461-468, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yin, Xuanpeng & Xu, Xuanhua & Pan, Bin, 2021. "Selection of Strategy for Large Group Emergency Decision-making based on Risk Measurement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    2. Botzen, W.J.W. & van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., 2012. "Risk attitudes to low-probability climate change risks: WTP for flood insurance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 151-166.
    3. Harin, Alexander, 2014. "Is data interpretation in utility and prospect theories unquestionably correct?," MPRA Paper 53880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Argote, Linda & Fahrenkopf, Erin, 2016. "Knowledge transfer in organizations: The roles of members, tasks, tools, and networks," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 146-159.
    5. Manel Baucells & Franz H. Heukamp, 2006. "Stochastic Dominance and Cumulative Prospect Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1409-1423, September.
    6. Fabio De Matteis & Alessandra Tafuro & Fabrizio Striani & Daniela Preite, 2023. "Totally Publicly-Owned (TPO) Utilities and Financial Performance: What is the role of some aspects of governance?," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2023(3), pages 89-111.
    7. Robin C. Van den Honert, 2016. "Improving Decision Making about Natural Disaster Mitigation Funding in Australia—A Framework," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, September.
    8. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2015. "Demand for fixed-price multi-year contracts: Experimental evidence from insurance decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 171-194, October.
    9. Boeker, Warren & Howard, Michael D. & Basu, Sandip & Sahaym, Arvin, 2021. "Interpersonal relationships, digital technologies, and innovation in entrepreneurial ventures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 495-507.
    10. Stephen L. Cheung & Agnieszka Tymula & Xueting Wang, 2022. "Present bias for monetary and dietary rewards," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1202-1233, September.
    11. Chateauneuf, Alain & Eichberger, Jurgen & Grant, Simon, 2007. "Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 538-567, November.
    12. Buechel, Berno & Hellmann, Tim & Klößner, Stefan, 2015. "Opinion dynamics and wisdom under conformity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 240-257.
    13. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
    14. Mario Daniele Amore & Orsola Garofalo & Alessandro Minichilli, 2014. "Gender Interactions Within the Family Firm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1083-1097, May.
    15. Houba, Harold & Tieman, Alexander F. & Brinksma, Rene, 1998. "The Nash bargaining solution for decision weight utility functions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 41-48, July.
    16. Fiaz Ahmad Sulehri & Saba Sharif, 2022. "The Impact of Firm Sustainability on Firm Growth: Evidence from USA," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, August.
    17. Xing, Lu & Gonzalez, Angelica & Sila, Vathunyoo, 2021. "Does cooperation among women enhance or impede firm performance?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(4).
    18. Giovana Escrivão & Marcelo Seido Nagano, 2016. "Linking Knowledge Creation and Environmental Education," Journal of Information & Knowledge Management (JIKM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(02), pages 1-23, June.
    19. Sah, Nilesh B. & Adhikari, Hari P. & Krolikowski, Marcin W. & Malm, James & Nguyen, Thanh T., 2022. "CEO gender and risk aversion: Further evidence using the composition of firm’s cash," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    20. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Peter Klibanoff & Lætitia Placido, 2015. "Experiments on Compound Risk in Relation to Simple Risk and to Ambiguity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1306-1322, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04023-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.