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Path-dependent import-substitution policies: the case of Argentina in the twentieth century

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastián Galiani

    (University of Maryland)

  • Paulo Somaini

    (Stanford Graduate School of Business
    NBER)

Abstract

We use a simple three-sector model to narrate the economic history of Argentina during the twentieth century as seen through the prism of its integration into and dis-integration from the world economy. Assuming that capital moves between the primary and secondary sectors more slowly than labor moves between the secondary and tertiary sectors, we show that import-substitution policies exhibit path dependence. We contend that the endogenous industrialization of the inter-war period generated political changes that paved the way for import-substitution industrialization during the post-war period. Even if this inward-oriented strategy failed to spur economic growth, protectionist policies became entrenched. In the absence of mature political institutions, the liberalization process was delayed and, when it finally did occur, it was extremely costly.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastián Galiani & Paulo Somaini, 2018. "Path-dependent import-substitution policies: the case of Argentina in the twentieth century," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-53, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:laecrv:v:27:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s40503-017-0047-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s40503-017-0047-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Di Tella & Juan Dubra, 2010. "Peronist Beliefs and Interventionist Policies," NBER Working Papers 16621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Irene Brambilla & Sebastian Galiani & Guido Porto, 2018. "Argentine trade policies in the XX century: 60 years of solitude," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-30, December.
    3. Cachanosky, Nicolás & Padilla, Alexandre & Gómez, Alejandro, 2021. "Immigration and institutional change: Did mass immigration cause peronism in argentina?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Irene Brambilla & Guido Porto, 2018. "Diagnóstico y Visión de la Inserción Comercial Argentina en el Mundo," IIE, Working Papers 115, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    5. Charles Peter Mgeni & Klaus Müller & Stefan Sieber, 2019. "Reducing Edible Oil Import Dependency in Tanzania: A Computable General Equilibrium CGE Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.
    6. Emilio Ocampo, 2019. "The Economic Analysis of Populism. A Selective Review of the Literature," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 694, Universidad del CEMA.
    7. Galiani, Sebastian & Torrens, Gustavo, 2014. "Autocracy, democracy and trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 173-193.
    8. Arnoletto,Matias & Franco Bedoya,Sebastian & Reyes,Jose Daniel, 2020. "Exporters Dynamics and the Role of Imports in Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9218, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade policy; Import substitution; Trade liberalization; Protectionism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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