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Autocracy, Democracy and Trade Policy

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  • Sebastian Galiani
  • Gustavo Torrens

Abstract

This paper develops a politico-economic model for use in studying the role of intra-elite conflict in the simultaneous determination of a country's political regime, trade policy and income-tax-based redistribution scheme. Three socioeconomic groups are involved: two elite groups and workers, whose preferences regarding trade policy and income taxation are derived from a simple open-economy model. The critical point is that income taxation induces a rich-poor/elite-workers political cleavage, while trade policy opens the door to intra-elite conflict. In this model, when there is no intra-elite conflict, changes in trade policy are associated with political transitions. Coups (democratizations) open up the economy if and only if both elite factions are pro-free-trade (protectionist). However, in the presence of intra-elite conflict, autocracies respond to popular revolts by changing trade their policy and reallocating political power within the elite (to the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers) rather than offering to democratize the country. The change in trade policy is credible because the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers controls the autocracy. Moreover, in the presence of intra-elite conflict, coups tend to result in the maintenance of the existing trade policy unless popular demands are extremely radical and/or the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers is exceptionally weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Galiani & Gustavo Torrens, 2013. "Autocracy, Democracy and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 19321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19321
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    4. Sebastian Galiani & Norman Schofield & Gustavo Torrens, 2014. "Factor Endowments, Democracy, and Trade Policy Divergence," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 16(1), pages 119-156, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olper, Alessandro & Curzi, Daniele & Swinnen, Johan, 2018. "Trade liberalization and child mortality: A Synthetic Control Method," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 394-410.
    2. Galiani, Sebastian & Torrens, Gustavo & Yanguas, Maria Lucia, 2014. "The Political Coase Theorem: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 17-38.
    3. Zissimos, Ben, 2017. "A theory of trade policy under dictatorship and democratization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 85-101.
    4. Sebastian Galiani & Cheryl Long & Camila Navajas Ahumada & Gustavo Torrens, 2019. "Horizontal and Vertical Conflict: Experimental Evidence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 239-269, May.
    5. Dieudonné Mignamissi, 2020. "Convergence institutionnelle et commerce bilatéral en Afrique centrale," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 645-660, December.
    6. Christopher J. Boudreaux, 2015. "The Evolutionary Effects of Democracy: In the Long Run, We are All Trading?," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 376-396, December.
    7. Sebastian Galiani & Gustavo Torrens, 2016. "Why Not Taxation and Representation? A Note on the American Revolution," NBER Working Papers 22724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Aditya Rangga Yogatama & Fithra Faisal Hastiadi, 2015. "The Role of Democracy and Governance in the Enhancement of Indonesian Exports to the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries," Working Papers in Economics and Business 201504, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised Jul 2015.
    9. Christian Ruckteschler & Adeel Malik & Ferdinand Eib, 2019. "The Politics of Trade Protection: Evidence from an EU-mandated Tari Liberalization in Morocco," CSAE Working Paper Series 2019-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Ruckteschler, Christian & Malik, Adeel & Eibl, Ferdinand, 2022. "Politics of trade protection in an autocracy: Evidence from an EU tariff liberalization in Morocco," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Tommy Krieger, 2022. "Elites and Health Infrastructure Improvements in Industrializing Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series 9808, CESifo.
    12. Galiani, Sebastian & Torrens, Gustavo, 2019. "Why not taxation and representation? British politics and the American revolution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 28-52.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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