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Migration and informational autocracy

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  • Michael Christian Lehmann

    (Universidade de Brasilia, Campus Universitario Darcy Ribeiro)

Abstract

Recent research shows that contemporary autocracies differ from their predecessors: Rather than deterring opposition through violent repression (Dictatorship of Fear), most autocrats today pretend to be democratic and rely on propaganda and co-optation of the educated elite (Informational Autocracy). How this new form of autocracy emerged is not fully understood. My theory is that more emigration opportunities for the educated elite were a contributing factor. The theory suggests that immigration policies of high-income countries in favor of educated foreigners, such as the H-1B visa in the United States, can have ambivalent effects on democratization in foreigners’ origin countries—promoting a transition from Dictatorship of Fear to Informational Autocracy but obstructing the transition to Democracy. The theory also illuminates why Dictators of Fear often restrict emigration while Informational Autocrats do not. Finally, it provides a novel explanation for the “economic growth failures” of autocracies.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Christian Lehmann, 2025. "Migration and informational autocracy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:38:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s00148-025-01067-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-025-01067-6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Refugees; Political violence; Democracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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