IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecrev/v76y2025i2d10.1007_s42973-024-00188-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic and welfare effects of family policy: cash transfers vs in-kind benefits

Author

Listed:
  • Reona Hagiwara

    (Waseda University)

Abstract

A pressing issue facing many advanced countries, including Japan, is finding ways to increase fertility rates. This paper compares and evaluates the effects of two types of childcare policies—cash benefits (CB) and in-kind benefits (IB)—on fertility, labor supply, and welfare. For parents, while CB, such as child allowances, reduces the monetary cost of childcare, IB, such as public daycare centers, alleviates the time cost of childcare. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility for the Japanese economy. The model includes both single and married households and assumes that married couples face two key trade-offs: child quantity versus child quality and childcare time versus working time. Simulation results show that both childcare benefits lead to higher fertility rates. The demographic changes result in welfare gains for all future households due to a reduction in social security taxes. These positive effects are expected to be larger under IB, as these benefits also increase female labor supply. In terms of increasing fertility and welfare, IB is more effective for highly educated couples with high opportunity costs of having children, whereas CB is more effective for less educated couples.

Suggested Citation

  • Reona Hagiwara, 2025. "Macroeconomic and welfare effects of family policy: cash transfers vs in-kind benefits," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 76(2), pages 375-427, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecrev:v:76:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s42973-024-00188-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s42973-024-00188-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s42973-024-00188-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s42973-024-00188-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Domeij, 2013. "Should Day Care be Subsidized?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 568-595.
    2. Mike Brewer & Anita Ratcliffe & Sarah dSmith, 2012. "Does welfare reform affect fertility? Evidence from the UK," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 245-266, January.
    3. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2008. "Estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 566-585, December.
    4. Raute, Anna, 2019. "Can financial incentives reduce the baby gap? Evidence from a reform in maternity leave benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 203-222.
    5. Stefan Bauernschuster & Timo Hener & Helmut Rainer, 2016. "Children Of A (Policy) Revolution: The Introduction Of Universal Child Care And Its Effect On Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 975-1005, August.
    6. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Tiago Cavalcanti & Georgi Kocharkov & Cezar Santos, 2021. "Family Planning and Development: Aggregate Effects of Contraceptive Use," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 624-657.
    8. Nakakuni, Kanato, 2024. "Macroeconomic analysis of the child benefit: Fertility, demographic structure, and welfare," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Jakob Egholt Søgaard, 2019. "Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 181-209, October.
    10. Nezih Guner & Remzi Kaygusuz & Gustavo Ventura, 2020. "Child-Related Transfers, Household Labour Supply, and Welfare," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(5), pages 2290-2321.
    11. Minchung Hsu & Tomoaki Yamada, 2019. "Population Aging, Health Care, and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(2), pages 547-577, April.
    12. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2021. "Is the selfish life-cycle model more applicable in Japan and, if so, why? A literature survey," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 157-187, March.
    13. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2011. "Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short-Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 73-106, November.
    14. Kazumasa Oguro & Manabu Shimasawa & Junichiro Takahata, 2013. "Child Benefits and Welfare for Current and Future Generations: Simulation Analyses in an Overlapping-Generations Model With Endogenous Fertility," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 490-511.
    15. Reagan Baughman & Stacy Dickert-Conlin, 2009. "The earned income tax credit and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 537-563, July.
    16. Juan Carlos Conesa & Sagiri Kitao & Dirk Krueger, 2009. "Taxing Capital? Not a Bad Idea after All!," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 25-48, March.
    17. Kazumasa Oguro & Junichiro Takahata, 2013. "Child Benefits and Macroeconomic Simulation Analyses : An Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 633-660, September.
    18. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Costa, Daniela & Kamali, Parisa & Kehoe, Timothy J. & Nygard, Vegard M. & Raveendranathan, Gajendran & Saxena, Akshar, 2018. "Macroeconomic effects of Medicare," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 27-40.
    19. Shintaro Yamaguchi, 2019. "Effects of parental leave policies on female career and fertility choices," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), pages 1195-1232, July.
    20. Petter Lundborg & Erik Plug & Astrid Würtz Rasmussen, 2017. "Can Women Have Children and a Career? IV Evidence from IVF Treatments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1611-1637, June.
    21. Seongeun Kim & Michèle Tertilt & Minchul Yum, 2024. "Status Externalities in Education and Low Birth Rates in Korea," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(6), pages 1576-1611, June.
    22. Kazumasa Oguro & Manabu Shimasawa & Junichiro Takahata, 2013. "Child Benefits and Welfare for Current and Future Generations: Simulation Analyses in an Overlapping-Generations Model With Endogenous Fertility," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 490-511, April.
    23. Alma Cohen & Rajeev Dehejia & Dmitri Romanov, 2013. "Financial Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 1-20, March.
    24. Tom S. Vogl, 2016. "Differential Fertility, Human Capital, and Development," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 365-401.
    25. Braun, R. Anton & Joines, Douglas H., 2015. "The implications of a graying Japan for government policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-23.
    26. Stefan Bauernschuster & Timo Hener & Helmut Rainer, 2016. "Children Of A (Policy) Revolution: The Introduction Of Universal Child Care And Its Effect On Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 975-1005, August.
    27. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1091-1113, September.
    28. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    29. Reagan Baughman & Stacy Dickert-Conlin, 2003. "Did Expanding the EITC Promote Motherhood?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 247-251, May.
    30. José María Da Rocha & Luisa Fuster, 2006. "Why Are Fertility Rates And Female Employment Ratios Positively Correlated Across O.E.C.D. Countries?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1187-1222, November.
    31. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
    32. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
    33. Fukai, Taiyo, 2017. "Childcare availability and fertility: Evidence from municipalities in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-18.
    34. Guy Laroque & Bernard Salanié, 2014. "Identifying The Response Of Fertility To Financial Incentives," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 314-332, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nakakuni, Kanato, 2024. "Macroeconomic analysis of the child benefit: Fertility, demographic structure, and welfare," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Dahl, Gordon & Loken, Katrine V., 2024. "Families, public policies, and the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics,, Elsevier.
    3. Gordon Dahl & Katrine Loken, 2024. "Families, Public Policies, and the Labor Market," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2423, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    4. Tudor, Simona, 2020. "Financial incentives, fertility and early life child outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Hagiwara, Reona, 2024. "Welfare effects of health insurance reform: The role of elastic medical demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Libertad González & Sofia Karina Trommlerová, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Fertility: How the Introduction and Cancellation of a Child Benefit Affected Births and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 783-818.
    7. Akira Okamoto, 2025. "The optimum quantity of debt for an aging Japan: welfare and demographic dynamics," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 76(1), pages 1-52, January.
    8. Regina T. Riphahn & Frederik Wiynck, 2017. "Fertility effects of child benefits," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 1135-1184, October.
    9. Elmallakh, Nelly, 2021. "Fertility, Family Policy, and Labor Supply: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from France," GLO Discussion Paper Series 984, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Reyer Gerlagh & Veronica Lupi & Marzio Galeotti, 2023. "Fertility and climate change," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 208-252, January.
    11. Koka, Katerina & Rapallini, Chiara, 2023. "Italy’s demographic trap: Voting for childcare subsidies and fertility outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Reona Hagiwara, 2022. "Welfare Effects of Health Insurance Reform: The Role of Elastic Medical Demand," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Malte Sandner & Frederik Wiynck, 2023. "The Fertility Response to Cutting Child-Related Welfare Benefits," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-29, April.
    14. Kamila Cygan-Rehm, 2016. "Parental leave benefit and differential fertility responses: evidence from a German reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 73-103, January.
    15. Katrine M. Jakobsen & Thomas H. J�rgensen & Hamish Low, 2022. "Fertility and Family Labor Supply," CEBI working paper series 22-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    16. Minchung Hsu & Tomoaki Yamada, 2019. "Population Aging, Health Care, and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(2), pages 547-577, April.
    17. Holger Stichnoth, 2020. "Short-run fertility effects of parental leave benefits: evidence from a structural model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 143-168, July.
    18. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    19. Natalie Malak & Md Mahbubur Rahman & Terry A. Yip, 2019. "Baby bonus, anyone? Examining heterogeneous responses to a pro-natalist policy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1205-1246, October.
    20. Raute, Anna, 2019. "Can financial incentives reduce the baby gap? Evidence from a reform in maternity leave benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 203-222.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash benefits; In-kind benefits; Fertility; Female labor supply; Overlapping generations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecrev:v:76:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s42973-024-00188-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.