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Family Planning and Development: Aggregate Effects of Contraceptive Use

Author

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  • Tiago Cavalcanti
  • Georgi Kocharkov
  • Cezar Santos

Abstract

What is the role of family planning interventions on fertility, savings, human capital investment and development? To examine this, endogenous unwanted fertility is embedded in an otherwise standard quantity–quality overlapping generations model of fertility and growth. The model features costly fertility control and families can (partially) insure against a fertility risk by using costly modern contraceptives. In the event of unexpected pregnancies, households can also opt to abort some pregnancies, at a cost. Given the number of children born, parents decide how much education to provide and how much to save out of their income. We fit the model to Kenyan data, implement several family planning policies and decompose their aggregate effects. Our results suggest that with a small government budget (say, up to 0.5% of GDP), family planning interventions might be more cost-effective in improving long-run living standards than policies that subsidise basic education.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiago Cavalcanti & Georgi Kocharkov & Cezar Santos, 2021. "Family Planning and Development: Aggregate Effects of Contraceptive Use," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 624-657.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:131:y:2021:i:634:p:624-657.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueaa070
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    Cited by:

    1. Yao Yao, 2022. "Fertility and HIV Risk in Africa," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 109-133, July.
    2. Nakakuni, Kanato, 2024. "Macroeconomic analysis of the child benefit: Fertility, demographic structure, and welfare," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Yin, Yongkun, 2023. "China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Nuevo-Chiquero, Ana & Pino, Francisco J., 2019. "To Pill or Not to Pill? Access to Emergency Contraception and Contraceptive Behaviour," IZA Discussion Papers 12076, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. de la Croix, David & Pommeret, Aude, 2021. "Childbearing postponement, its option value, and the biological clock," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha & Kim, Minkyong, 2023. "Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Reyer Gerlagh & Veronica Lupi & Marzio Galeotti, 2023. "Fertility and climate change," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 208-252, January.
    8. Victor Gay & Paula Eugenia Gobbi & Marc Goñi, 2023. "Revolutionary Transition: Inheritance Changeand Fertility Decline," Working Papers ECARES 2023-20, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Kaixing Huang, 2024. "Fertility and long‐term economic growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1152-1171, July.
    10. Francis Dennig & Bassel Tarbush, 2025. "Economic dynamics with differential fertility," Papers 2503.02074, arXiv.org.
    11. Iftikhar, Zainab, 2025. "How much do norms matter for quantity and quality of children?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    12. Christian Alemán-Pericón & Alexander Ludwig & Christopher Busch & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2022. "A Stage-Based Identification of Policy Effects," Working Papers 1369, Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. de Silva, Tiloka & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2017. "The large fall in global fertility: A quantitative model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86157, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. John Kennes & John Knowles, 2024. "Unmarried Births: Accounting and Equilibrium Analysis"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 52, pages 84-109, April.
    15. Seshadri, Ananth & Zhou, Anson, 2022. "Intergenerational mobility begins before birth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1-20.
    16. Gabriel Lara Ibarra & Cabrera,Maynor & Otavio Canozzi Conceicao & Ricardo Campante Cardoso Vale, 2023. "Poverty and Inequality Implications of Fiscal Policies : The Case of Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10495, The World Bank.
    17. Reona Hagiwara, 2025. "Macroeconomic and welfare effects of family policy: cash transfers vs in-kind benefits," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 76(2), pages 375-427, April.
    18. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Delventhal, Matthew J. & Guner, Nezih, 2021. "Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 16708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," Working Papers 2022-012, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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