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Child Benefits and Macroeconomic Simulation Analyses : An Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Kazumasa Oguro

    (Hosei University)

  • Junichiro Takahata

    (Dokkyo University)

Abstract

In predicting the impact of policies on macroeconomic variables, the government must consider the effect of household fertility choices on demographic trends, as macroeconomic variables can be influenced by population scale. Therefore, this paper presents a comprehensive survey of existing studies with endogenous fertility models and examines the effect of various policies on macroeconomic variables through simulation analysis based on the overlapping generations model (OLG) of Oguro et al. (2011), which determines population growth endogenously, with the growth rate affected by household fertility choices. Our results demonstrate a major effect on future population and public debt predictions studied in a scenario combining fiscal reform and introduction of child benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazumasa Oguro & Junichiro Takahata, 2013. "Child Benefits and Macroeconomic Simulation Analyses : An Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 633-660, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mof:journl:ppr023c
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hagiwara, Reona, 2020. "Seigniorage and Japanese fiscal sustainability: Simulation analysis using an overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 340-356.
    2. Okamoto, Akira, 2022. "Intergenerational earnings mobility and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 76-104.
    3. Okamoto Akira, 2020. "Childcare Allowances and Public Pensions: Welfare and Demographic Effects in an Aging Japan," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Okamoto, Akira, 2021. "Immigration policy and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Orlando Gomes, 2022. "Human capital and growth in an OLG-life cycle model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    overlapping generations model; child benefits; endogenous fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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