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Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Conesa
  • Daniela Costa
  • Parisa Kamali
  • Timothy J. Kehoe
  • Vegard M. Nygard
  • Gajendran Raveendranathan
  • Akshar Saxena

Abstract

This paper develops an overlapping generations model to study the macroeconomic effects of an unexpected elimination of Medicare. We find that a large share of the elderly respond by substituting Medicaid for Medicare. Consequently, the government saves only 46 cents for every dollar cut in Medicare spending. We argue that a comparison of steady states is insufficient to evaluate the welfare effects of the reform. In particular, we find lower ex-ante welfare gains from eliminating Medicare when we account for the costs of transition. Lastly, we find that a majority of the current population benefits from the reform but that aggregate welfare, measured as the dollar value of the sum of wealth equivalent variations, is higher with Medicare.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Conesa & Daniela Costa & Parisa Kamali & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vegard M. Nygard & Gajendran Raveendranathan & Akshar Saxena, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare," NBER Working Papers 23389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23389
    Note: AG EFG HC HE
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Gajen Raveendranathan & Parisa Kamali & Akshar Saxena & Daniela Costa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vegard Nygard & Juan Carlos Conesa, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare," Staff Report 548, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
    2. Borella, Margherita & De Nardi, Mariacristina & Yang, Fang, 2018. "The aggregate implications of gender and marriage," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 6-26.
    3. Juan C. Conesa & Carlos Garriga, 2008. "Optimal Fiscal Policy In The Design Of Social Security Reforms," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 291-318, February.
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    5. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2013. "Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Regulation from Redistribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 383-404, July.
    6. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2016. "On the optimal provision of social insurance: Progressive taxation versus education subsidies in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 72-98.
    7. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John B. Jones, 2010. "Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 39-75, February.
    8. Jeske, Karsten & Kitao, Sagiri, 2009. "U.S. tax policy and health insurance demand: Can a regressive policy improve welfare?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 210-221, March.
    9. Orazio Attanasio & Sagiri Kitao & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "Financing Medicare: A General Equilibrium Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 333-366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michaud, Amanda & Nelson, Jaeger & Wiczer, David, 2018. "Vocational considerations and trends in Social Security Disability," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 41-51.
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    16. İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Zhao, Kai, 2018. "Intergenerational transfers and China’s social security reform," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 62-70.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:fip:fedreq:00060 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gajendran Raveendranathan & Kyle Herkenhoff, 2019. "Who Bears the Welfare Costs of Monopoly? The Case of the Credit Card Industry," 2019 Meeting Papers 67, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Gajendran Raveendranathan, 2019. "Who Bears the Welfare Costs of Monopoly? The Case of the Credit Card Industry," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-13, McMaster University.
    4. Juan Carlos Conesa & Akshar Saxena & Daniela Costa & Gajendran Raveendranathan & Parisa Kamali & Timothy Kehoe, 2018. "Aging and the Macroeconomy," 2018 Meeting Papers 930, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Job Boerma & Ellen McGrattan, 2018. "Health Capital Taxation," 2018 Meeting Papers 204, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Timothy J. Kehoe & Gajendran Raveendranathan & Vegard Nygard & Juan Carlos Conesa, 2019. "Implications of Increasing College Attainment for Aging in General Equilibrium," Staff Report 583, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Herkenhoff, Kyle & Raveendranathan, Gajendran, 2019. "Who Bears the Welfare Costs of Monopoly? The Case of the Credit Card Industry," IZA Discussion Papers 12836, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael, 2018. "Health insurance, endogenous medical progress, and health expenditure growth," ECON WPS - Vienna University of Technology Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 01/2018, Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Research Group Economics (ECON).
    10. Eric French & Mariacristina De Nardi & Rory McGee & John Bailey Jones & Justin Kirschner, 2018. "The Lifetime Medical Spending of Retirees," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, pages 103-135.
    11. Juan Carlos Conesa & Bo Li & Qian Li, 2018. "Welfare Implications of Switching to Consumption Taxation," Department of Economics Working Papers 18-09, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private

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