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Reaction of stock market returns to COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown policy: evidence from Nigerian firms stock returns


  • Isiaka Akande Raifu

    (University of Ibadan)

  • Terver Theophilus Kumeka

    (University of Ibadan)

  • Alarudeen Aminu

    (University of Ibadan)


Given the effects COVID-19 pandemic on the financial sectors across the world, this study examined the reaction of stock returns of 201 firms listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange to the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown policy. We deployed both Pooled OLS and Panel VAR as estimation methods. Generally, the results from POLS show the stock market returns of the Nigerian firms reacted negatively more to the global COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths than the domestic COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and lockdown policy. The results of the impulse response functions revealed that the effects of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and lockdown policy shocks on stock returns oscillate between negative and positive before the stock market returns converge to the equilibrium in the long run. The FEVD results showed that growth in the COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths and lockdown policy shocks explained little variations in stock market returns. Given our finding, we advocate for the relaxation of policy of lockdown and the combine use of monetary and fiscal policies to mitigate the negative effect of COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Isiaka Akande Raifu & Terver Theophilus Kumeka & Alarudeen Aminu, 2021. "Reaction of stock market returns to COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown policy: evidence from Nigerian firms stock returns," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:futbus:v:7:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s43093-021-00080-x
    DOI: 10.1186/s43093-021-00080-x

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    2. Isiaka Akande Raifu & Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi, 2023. "The Effect of Financial Development on Unemployment in Emerging Market Countries," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(3), pages 354-384, September.
    3. Sabeeh Ullah, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Financial Markets: a Global Perspective," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 982-1003, June.
    4. Mohammad Arashi & Mohammad Mahdi Rounaghi, 2022. "Analysis of market efficiency and fractal feature of NASDAQ stock exchange: Time series modeling and forecasting of stock index using ARMA-GARCH model," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Isiaka Akande Raifu, 2023. "Examining structural stability and time-varying causality between economic policy uncertainty and Asia-Pacific Islamic stock price," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 28-37.
    6. Aamir Jamal & Mudaser Ahad Bhat, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and the exchange rate movements: evidence from six major COVID-19 hot spots," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, December.

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