“Bottom-up” abatement on climate from the “top-down” design: lessons learned from China’s low-carbon city pilot policy

In Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, representatives from 198 countries convened for the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) held between November 6 and 20, 2022. A consensus emerged regarding the imperative of embracing a “bottom-up” approach to tackling climate change. The phased introduction of dual-stage measures within the low-carbon city pilot policy in China affords a reputable natural experiment and establishes a treatment cohort for gauging carbon emissions within these zones. Empirical estimation of the abatement impact of China's low-carbon city pilot policy on carbon emissions is undertaken herein, leveraging a comprehensive dataset composed of information on carbon dioxide emissions and economic indicators spanning the years 2000–2017. Key findings are: (1) The low-carbon city pilot policy effectively reduces carbon emissions by 0.2808 Mt and decreases emission intensity by 11.59%. (2) China can achieve 40.28% of its emissions reduction target outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan due to the efficacy of low-carbon cities. (3) The emissions reduction effect of the policy significantly increases with the implementation of Emissions Trading Scheme pilots. 4) The primary-stage initiatives of the low-carbon city pilot policy drive its emissions reduction effect, while the secondary-stage policy has limited impact due to rational public expectations. This research presents a model for low-carbon city development, proposing strategies that align with a “bottom-up” approach to tackle climate change. These insights may encourage member parties to strengthen commitments and adopt net-zero goals at COP meetings.